Does Distance Still Matter For Internal Migration And, If So, How? Evidence From 1986 To 2006

In this paper we re-examine the structure of internal migration flows in New Zealand. We use data on gross migration flows between the 39 main and secondary urban areas for the four intercensal periods between 1986 and 2006. We confirm that the gravity model – in which migration is inversely related to distance – fits the data well, and that the way in which distance is measured (travel time, road distance or straight-line distance) matters to some extent for the goodness of fit of the model. We also show that some forms of socioeconomic differences influence migration in the same way as distance. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the deterrence effect of distance on migration was increasing, at least until 2001. Improvements in connectivity through reduced travel time have not increased migration flows.

Ageing Of The Workforce: Effects On The Labour Market With Participation And Retirement

Ageing of the work force in New Zealand is an important determinant of labour market dynamics. In addition to the median age and the proportion of workers in retirement age, the nature of occupations and health and financial security are also important determinants of participation and retirement.The baby boom generation has approached their retirement years and the age structure of the working age population has also significantly altered. Consequently, the retirement of older workers is expected to make-up an important source of new job openings over the coming decades.Estimating and forecasting likely future retirement rates by occupational groups is of considerable interest, and provides further insights into labour market dynamics.In this study, recent historical retirement rates for broad (3-digit) ANZSCO occupational groups were derived using an internationally accepted methodology known as the cohort component method, adapted to allow for some participation by older age groups. Occupational employment data by age extracted from the recently released 2013 Census was analysed along with the corresponding data from the 2006 Census to estimate the average retirement rates over the 2006-13 period. These rates are then used to project future retirement rates over the 2013-20 period for the same broad occupational groups. Projections were based on the Working Age Population projections for age groups and their associated participation rates.

Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand

Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments.

Beyond Mainstream Labour Market Theory And Precarity: Towards An Alternative To The Neoliberal Model Of Development

This paper contextualises contemporary precarity within a mid-range focus on labour market segmentation that takes Marx’s long-range theory of the ‘relative surplus population’ as its point of departure. It also briefly outlines an alternative ‘model of development’ which could address the increasing precarity of a growing proportion of the world’s population. It first sets out a critical analysis of core elements of mainstream accounts of the labour market, which is a point of comparison in the later sections. The paper ends with an exploratory discussion about how neo-Marxist analysis can supplement Keynesianism, and how both need to be re-focused more clearly on the need to design a post-neoliberal model of development.

Non-Cognitive Abilities And Labor Market Outcomes: The Role Of Work Ethic And Personality Traits On Supervisory Status And Promotion

A growing literature suggests that noncognitive abilities are important determinants of earnings. But empirical research on nonwage labor market outcomes is still limited due to data availability. In this paper, we collect employer-employee linked data from six former socialist countries and estimate three noncognitive abilities: adherence to work ethic, the preference for challenge versus affiliation, and locus of control, and their relationship with workers’ supervisory status and promotions. We find that these noncognitive abilities are strong predictors of the likelihood of being a supervisor and being promoted as well as the number of supervisees and promotions. We also study the role of noncognitive abilities in the gender gap in these labor market outcomes. Based on a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, gender differences in these noncognitive abilities can explain a modest proportion of the gender gap in supervisory status and promotions.

Mothers in the New Zealand workforce

Motherhood is a significant factor in how women participate in paid work. Women are likely to restructure their work arrangements or withdraw from the labour market while caring for dependent children (OECD, 2011). However, women’s participation in the labour force has increased over time, in part due to more mothers remaining in and re-entering the labour market. The purpose of this paper is to look at the demographic and labour force characteristics of women in the prime parenting age group (those aged 25–49 years), in relation to their parent and partner statuses. Data from the Household Labour Force Survey and the Survey of Working Life are used to create a picture of these different groups of women over time, to identify the factors affecting a mother’s ability to participate in the labour market, and to understand how work arrangements and conditions for employed mothers differ from employed non-mothers’.

Immigrants' Location Choices, Geographic Concentration, and Employment in New Zealand

TBC

Renewing New Zealand Unions: The Service And Food Workers’ Union & Living Wage Aotearoa

Trade unions and trade unionism are under serious threat in most industrialised countries, in what has been referred to as the ‘crisis in trade unionism’. The crisis is common to trade unions across the globe, consisting of a decline in membership and density, coupled with a loss of political influence and social standing. The crisis has been caused by changes in the political economies of the industrially developed nations. Social Movement Unionism (SMU) is one of the strategies to combat this crisis which has been embraced by unions and union movements in many of the Liberal Market Economies (LME). In the context of New Zealand, Jane Parker has looked at the possibility of SMU at a union movement level. However, at a single union level, the Service and Food Workers’ Union (SFWU) has engaged with this vision of renewal through participation in the Living Wage Movement Aotearoa New Zealand (LWANZ).This paper will seek to place the SFWU’s engagement with this campaign within a theoretical framework of union renewal; that is, a re-imagining of trade union relationships in order to (re-)gain power along various dimensions. We will further consider the SMU literature and will draw on three concepts identified by Ross in her analysis of social unionism: the ethos, or “collective action frame”; the strategies or “repertoire”; and, the “internal organisational practices”, and how these interlink with the literature on union renewal. Of particular note will be the response of both the union and non-union participants in the LWANZ to the development of their relationships, and whether and how this is contributing to the successes of LWANZ and of union renewal.

The State of the New Zealand Labour Market

This paper will review recent developments in the New Zealand labour market and trace the passage of these indicators through the global financial crisis to the outlook for the coming 3 years. The paper is based on the Ministry’s Quarterly Labour Market report and Short-term Employment Forecasts. The paper describes a strong labour market. Indicators of labour demand growth have moderated from the elevated levels recorded earlier in 2014, but remain solid. Construction is a significant source of employment demand across the entire country, and not just Canterbury. Migration-led population growth and near-record labour force participation rates are expanding labour supply. Women in general are showing increased involvement in the labour market: the female labour force participation rate returned to its record high of 63.7 per cent (equal to that recorded in March 2014), and the female employment rate (59.7 per cent) is at its highest rate since December 2008. Single mothers in particular have seen a sharp increase in their employment rate, which has reached its highest level since the series began in 1986. High participation is likely slowing the fall in the unemployment rate, which nevertheless hit its lowest level since March 2009. Wage growth remains subdued over the September quarter, but this comes against the backdrop of low inflation.

NEET by choice? Investigating the links between motherhood and NEET status

This paper investigates the propensity of young mothers aged 15 to 24 to be not in employment, education and training. Not all young mothers are out of labour force and many are involved in education. Additionally, those that are NEET may not be by choice. We identify areas for further investigation and policy response.