Conditional Probability and Expectations

1999 ◽  
pp. 87-103
Author(s):  
V.G. Kulkarni
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability

Facial Likability and Smiling Enhance Cooperation, but Have No Direct Effect on Moralistic Punishment

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 263-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Mieth ◽  
Raoul Bell ◽  
Axel Buchner
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Direct Effect ◽  
Prisoner's Dilemma ◽  
Prisoner’S Dilemma ◽  
Prisoner’S Dilemma Game ◽  
Costly Punishment ◽  
Prisoner's Dilemma Game ◽  
Moralistic Punishment

Abstract. The present study serves to test how positive and negative appearance-based expectations affect cooperation and punishment. Participants played a prisoner’s dilemma game with partners who either cooperated or defected. Then they were given a costly punishment option: They could spend money to decrease the payoffs of their partners. Aggregated over trials, participants spent more money for punishing the defection of likable-looking and smiling partners compared to punishing the defection of unlikable-looking and nonsmiling partners, but only because participants were more likely to cooperate with likable-looking and smiling partners, which provided the participants with more opportunities for moralistic punishment. When expressed as a conditional probability, moralistic punishment did not differ as a function of the partners’ facial likability. Smiling had no effect on the probability of moralistic punishment, but punishment was milder for smiling in comparison to nonsmiling partners.

Interlocking patterns of conditional probability: The reinforcement matrix.

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-40
Author(s):  
Joseph D. Cautilli ◽  
Donald A. Hantula
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability

The dependence of the majority voting decision-making probabilities on a multi-expert binary system experts number

2020 ◽  
pp. 7-14
Author(s):  
E. D. Avedyan ◽  
Le Thi Trang Linh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Binary System ◽  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Majority Voting ◽  
Correct Solution ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Analytical Results ◽  
Independent Expert ◽  
Mutually Independent

The article presents the analytical results of the decision-making by the majority voting algorithm (MVA). Particular attention is paid to the case of an even number of experts. The conditional probabilities of the MVA for two hypotheses are given for an even number of experts and their properties are investigated depending on the conditional probability of decision-making by independent experts of equal qualifications and on their number. An approach to calculating the probabilities of the correct solution of the MVA with unequal values of the conditional probabilities of accepting hypotheses of each statistically mutually independent expert is proposed. The findings are illustrated by numerical and graphical calculations.

Probability

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Gelman ◽  
Deborah Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Bayes Rule ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Classroom Activities ◽  
Basic Probability

This chapter contains many classroom activities and demonstrations to help students understand basic probability calculations, including conditional probability and Bayes rule. Many of the activities alert students to misconceptions about randomness. They create dramatic settings where the instructor discerns real coin flips from fake ones, students modify dice and coins in order to load them, students “accused” of lying based on the outcome of an inaccurate simulated lie detector face their classmates. Additionally, probability models of real outcomes offer good value: first we can do the probability calculations, and then can go back and discuss the potential flaws of the model.

Suppose and Tell

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Williamson
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Natural Deduction ◽  
Special Kind ◽  
Context Sensitivity ◽  
Modal Operator ◽  
Counterfactual Conditionals ◽  
Deduction Rules ◽  
Psychological Sense

The book argues that our use of conditionals is governed by imperfectly reliable heuristics, in the psychological sense of fast and frugal (or quick and dirty) ways of assessing them. The primary heuristic is this: to assess ‘If A, C’, suppose A and on that basis assess C; whatever attitude you take to C conditionally on A (such as acceptance, rejection, or something in between) take unconditionally to ‘If A, C’. This heuristic yields both the equation of the probability of ‘If A, C’ with the conditional probability of C on A and standard natural deduction rules for the conditional. However, these results can be shown to make the heuristic implicitly inconsistent, and so less than fully reliable. There is also a secondary heuristic: pass conditionals freely from one context to another under normal conditions for acceptance of sentences on the basis of memory and testimony. The effect of the secondary heuristic is to undermine interpretations on which ‘if’ introduces a special kind of context-sensitivity. On the interpretation which makes best sense of the two heuristics, ‘if’ is simply the truth-functional conditional. Apparent counterexamples to truth-functionality are artefacts of reliance on the primary heuristic in cases where it is unreliable. The second half of the book concerns counterfactual conditionals, as expressed with ‘if’ and ‘would’. It argues that ‘would’ is an independently meaningful modal operator for contextually restricted necessity: the meaning of counterfactuals is simply that derived compositionally from the meanings of their constituents, including ‘if’ and ‘would’, making them contextually restricted strict conditionals.

Quantum Logic, Conditional Probability, and Interference

1982 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 402-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Bub
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Logic ◽  
Conditional Probability

scholarly journals Age Conditional Probability of Ocular and Ocular Adnexal Malignancies

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Mathias Nittmann ◽  
Curtis E. Margo
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Uveal Melanoma ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Pedagogical Tool ◽  
United States Population ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Cumulative Risks ◽  
Adjusted Incidence ◽  
Communicating Risk

<b><i>Aim:</i></b> The aim of this study was to discuss and illustrate the role age-conditional probability has in communicating risk of developing ocular and ocular adnexal malignancies. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Cross-sectional incidence for retinoblastoma, uveal melanoma, conjunctival melanoma, and lacrimal gland carcinomas from 2000 to 2017 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Incidence rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 United States population. Age-adjusted incidence was converted to age-interval and cumulative risks. Outcomes were examined in 20-year intervals and cumulatively for adult cancers and yearly for retinoblastoma. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The risk of each malignancy displayed age-dependent variation. For adult malignancies, men were at higher risk at most age intervals. Uveal melanoma had the greatest cumulative lifetime risk. The probability of developing retinoblastoma declines precipitously after age 3 years. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Age-conditional probability of developing cancer is a conceptually friendly means of understanding and communicating risk. It is particularly useful in comparing the risks of uncommon or rare cancers, such as those found in and around the eye. The assessment of risk in terms of age-conditional probability is a versatile and an underutilized pedagogical tool.

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