The Scheme Relating Frequency of Lightning Flashes to Statistical Characteristics of Convective Activity in the Atmosphere for the IAP RAS Climate Model

Author(s):  
A. V. Eliseev ◽  
A. N. Ploskov ◽  
A. V. Chernokulsky ◽  
I. I. Mokhov
2019 ◽  
Vol 485 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
A. V. Eliseev ◽  
A. N. Ploskov ◽  
А. V. Chernokulsky ◽  
I. I. Mokhov

A modification of the commonly used Price-Rind scheme for lightning flashes frequency (LFF), which can be used for calculations with large spatial and time steps, is developed. With such steps, the exponent in the relationship of LFF on convective cloud heights appears to be smaller by a factor of two over land and by one fourth over ocean in comparison to that in the original Price-Rind scheme. The modified version is implemented into the IAP RAS climate model (CM). The results of the lightning flash frequency simulations with the modified scheme agree better with the satellite data than those with the original one. In the IAP RAS CM, global warming (cooling) leads to LFF increase (decrease) in all seasons. The sensitivity of lightning flashes frequency to the surface air temperature change at the global level is estimated equal to 10%/K.


Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Si-Ming Liu ◽  
Yuan-Hao Chen ◽  
Jian Rao ◽  
Can Cao ◽  
Si-Yu Li ◽  
...  

After the recent release of the historical runs by community Earth system model version 2–the whole atmosphere community climate model (CESM2-WACCM), the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in this model and in its previous version (CESM1-WACCM) are compared based on a modern reanalysis (JRA55). Using the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) definition of SSWs and a threshold-based classification method that can describe the polar vortex morphology, SSWs in models and the reanalysis are further classified into two types, vortex displacement SSWs and vortex split SSWs. The general statistical characteristics of the two types of SSW events in the two model versions are evaluated. Both CESM1-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM models are shown to reproduce the SSW frequency successfully, although the circulations differences between vortex displacement SSWs and vortex split SSWs in CESM2-WACCM are smaller than in CESM1-WACCM. Composite polar temperature, geopotential height, wind, and eddy heat flux anomalies in both the two models and the reanalysis show similar evolutions. In addition, positive Pacific–North America and negative Western Pacific patterns in the troposphere preceding vortex displacement and split SSWs are observed in both observations and the models. The strong negative North Atlantic oscillation-like pattern, especially after vortex split SSW onset, is also identified in models. The near-surface cold Eurasia–warm North America pattern before both types of SSW onset, the warm Eurasia–cold North America pattern after displacement SSW onset, and the cold Eurasia–cold North America pattern after split SSW onset are consistently identified in JRA55, CESM1-WACCM, and CESM2-WACCM, although the temperature anomalies after the split SSW onset in CESM2-WACCM are somewhat underestimated.


2019 ◽  
Vol 485 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. V. Eliseev ◽  
A. N. Ploskov ◽  
A. V. Chernokulsky ◽  
I. I. Mokhov

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Frisius ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Armelle Reca Remedio ◽  
Kevin Sieck ◽  
Claas Teichmann

<p><span>Moving towards convection permitting simulations up to few kilometers scale are emerging solutions to the challenge and complexities in simulating different convective phenomena especially over mountainous regions. In this study we execute sensitivity experiments with the non-hydrostatic regional climate model REMO-NH at convection permitting resolution (~3km). We use this model in three setups where different parameterization schemes for horizontal diffusion are tested. In the first setup “DIFF2” we utilize the standard 2</span><sup><span>nd</span></sup><span> order diffusion while the second setup “DIFF4” applies 4</span><sup><span>th</span></sup><span> order diffusion. The higher order has a smaller impact on larger scales so that the atmospheric fields exhibit more details, especially in regions with high convective activity. In the third setup “TURB3D”, REMO-NH runs with a new 3D Smagorinsky-type turbulence scheme instead of the artificial diffusion schemes. Though turbulent horizontal diffusion is of second order in this setup, it incorporates a spatially and temporally varying exchange coefficient so that flows with little deformation remain unaffected. The domain of the simulations driven with EURO-CORDEX boundary data covers Germany and the time integration spans the year 2006. </span></p><p><span>Selected cases reveal a better representation of convective elements in DIFF4 and TURB3D when compared with DIFF2. We cannot compare these individual cases directly to observations since REMO-NH is not a reanalysis but a climate model. However, the spatial precipitation fields deduced from DWD radar data have characteristics which are more similar to DIFF4 and TURB3D than to DIFF2. More details are resolved in DIFF4 and TURB3D since the diffusion mainly act at the smallest spatial scales resolved by the model. DIFF2 smoothes convective activity drastically so that it appears in the form of unrealistically wide convective cells. On the other hand, the statistics of precipitation (seasonal average, standard deviation and 95th percentile) show a better agreement with observations in the simulation DIFF2 and TURB3D. TURB3D appears to be the best compromise regarding the simulation of precipitations fields. However, TURB3D exhibits a warm bias in the 2m temperature field in autumn and winter. Further model development may help to overcome this issue.</span></p>


Author(s):  
Pavel A. Perezhogin ◽  
Andrey V. Glazunov ◽  
Evgeny V. Mortikov ◽  
Valentin P. Dymnikov

AbstractThe influence of numerical approximations on statistical characteristics of modelled two-dimensional turbulence sustained by a stochastic external forcing is studied. The ability of various finite-difference and semi-Lagrangian schemes to reproduce reliably the dual energy and enstrophy cascades for coarse spatial resolution is tested. It is also studied how the requirement of preserving invariants inherent to a two-dimensional ideal fluid is important relative to numerical schemes. The results of calculations with high spatial resolution were taken as a reference solution. The choice of studied schemes was motivated by their use in atmosphere and ocean numerical models, in particular, in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics climate model (INMCM) and semi-Lagrangian absolute vorticity (SLAV) model of medium-range weather forecast. The importance of conservation laws for integral vorticity and enstrophy is revealed in the numerical experiments with a small-scale external forcing.


Author(s):  
Chris Kent ◽  
Nick J. Dunstone ◽  
Simon Tucker ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Simon Brown ◽  
...  

Abstract The UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) method involves using a large ensemble of climate model simulations to increase the sample size of rare events. Here we extend UNSEEN to focus on intense summertime daily rainfall, estimating plausible rainfall extremes in the current climate. To address modelling limitations simulations from two climate models were used; an initialised 25km global model that uses parametrized convection, and a dynamically downscaled 2.2km model that uses explicit convection. In terms of the statistical characteristics that govern very rare return periods, the models are not significantly different from the observations across much of the UK. Our analysis provides more precise estimates of 1000-year return levels for extreme daily rainfall, reducing sampling uncertainty by 70-90% compared to using observations alone. This framework enables observed daily storm profiles to be adjusted to more statistically robust estimates of extreme rainfall. For a damaging storm in July 2007 which led to surface water flooding, we estimate physically plausible increases in the total daily rainfall of 50 – 100%. For much of the UK the annual chance of record-breaking daily summertime rainfall is estimated to be around 1% per year in the present-day climate. Analysis of the dynamical states in our UNSEEN events indicates that heavy daily rainfall is associated with a southward displaced and meandering North Atlantic jet stream, increasing the advection of warm moist air from across Southern Europe and the Mediterranean, and intensifying extratropical storms. This work represents an advancement in the use of climate modelling for estimating present-day climate hazards and outlines a framework for applying UNSEEN at higher spatial and temporal resolutions.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gavkhar Mamadjanova ◽  
Simon Wild ◽  
Michael A. Walz ◽  
Gregor C. Leckebusch

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to understand atmospheric factors from local to synoptic scales, which cause mudflow variability on interannual and longer time scales. In a first step, historical data of mudflow occurrences in Uzbekistan provided by the Centre of Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) for more than 140 years was analysed. During the investigation period a total of about 3000 mudflow events were observed with about 21 events per year on average. The majority of mudflows occur during the advection of westerly airflow when moist air from Central and Southern Europe reaches Uzbekistan. This synoptic weather type (SWT) can be related to one of the 15 primary synoptic circulation types over Central Asia (CA) and Uzbekistan, which were subjectively derived by Bugayev and Giorgio in the 1930–40s. To understand the main atmospheric regimes steering the variability of mudflow occurrences, we applied additionally an objective classification following the Circulation Weather Types (CWT) approach. By means of the CWT approach, we further analyse that on mudflow-days the frequencies of cyclonic (C), westerly (W), south-westerly (SW) and north-westerly (NW) stream flows are increased in comparison to the climatological frequency of the occurrence of these circulation weather patterns. Results confirm that CWT westerly airflow initiates relatively more mudflow events comparing to other CWTs in study area. Integrated approach of the CWT classification and an antecedent daily rainfall model are combined together in logistic regression analysis to construct mudflow triggering precipitation threshold per CWT class. In general W, SW and C weather types require less antecedent rainfall amount to trigger mudflow occurrences in the study area. This technique is thus shown to be applicable to coarse resolution climate model diagnostics.


2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Orbe ◽  
David Rind ◽  
Jeffrey Jonas ◽  
Larissa Nazarenko ◽  
Greg Faluvegi ◽  
...  

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