GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere—2. Validation of Large‐Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Orbe ◽  
David Rind ◽  
Jeffrey Jonas ◽  
Larissa Nazarenko ◽  
Greg Faluvegi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Climate Response

Unmixing the regional climate response to recent historical land cover changes in Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Huang ◽  
Xiangping Hu ◽  
Geir-Arne Fuglstad ◽  
Xu Zhou ◽  
Wenwu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
Cooling Effects

<p>Land cover changes (LCCs) influence the regional climate because they alter biophysical mechanisms like evapotranspiration, albedo, and surface roughness. Previous research mainly assessed the regional climate implications of individual land cover transitions, such as the effects of historical forest clearance or idealized large-scale scenarios of deforestation/afforestation, but the combined effects from the mix of recent historical land cover changes in Europe have not been explored. In this study, we use a combination of high resolution land cover data with a regional climate model (the Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF, v3.9.1) to quantify the effects on surface temperature of land cover changes between 1992 and 2015. Unlike many previous studies that had to use one unrealistic large-scale simulation for each LCC to single out its climate effects, our analysis simultaneously considers the effects of the mix of historical land cover changes in Europe and introduces a new method to disentangle the individual contributions. This approach, based on a ridge statistical regression, does not require an explicit consideration of the different components of the surface energy budget, and directly shows the temperature changes from each land transition.</p><p>            From 1992 to 2015, around 70 Mha of land transitions occurred in Europe. Approximately 25 Mha of agricultural land was left abandoned, which was only partially compensated by cropland expansion (about 20 Mha). Declines in agricultural land mostly occurred in favor of forests (15 Mha) and urban settlements (8 Mha). Relative to 1992, we find that the land covers of 2015 are associated with an average temperature cooling of -0.12±0.20 °C, with seasonal and spatial variations. At a continental level, the mean cooling is mainly driven by agriculture abandonment (cropland-to-forest transitions). Idealized simulations where cropland transitions to other land classes are excluded result in a mean warming of +0.10±0.19 °C, especially during summer. Conversions to urban land always resulted in warming effects, whereas the local temperature response to forest gains and losses shows opposite signs from the western and central part of the domain (where forests have cooling effects) to the eastern part (where forests are associated to warming). Gradients in soil moisture and local climate conditions are the main drivers of these differences. Our findings are a first attempt to quantify the regional climate response to historical LCC in Europe, and our method allows to unmix the temperature signal of a grid cell to the underlying LCCs (i.e., temperature impact per land transition). Further developing biophysical implications from LCCs for their ultimate consideration in land use planning can improve synergies for climate change adaptation and mitigation.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Summer Season Squall-Line Simulations: Sensitivity of Gravity Waves to Physics Parameterization and Implications for Their Parameterization in Global Climate Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (9) ◽  
pp. 3376-3391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Stephan ◽  
M. Joan Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Momentum Flux ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Gravity waves have important effects on the middle atmosphere circulation, and those generated by convection are prevalent in the tropics and summer midlatitudes. Numerous case studies have been carried out to investigate their characteristics in high-resolution simulations. Here, the impact of the choice of physics parameterizations on the generation and spectral properties of these waves in models is investigated. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) a summertime squall line over the Great Plains is simulated in a three-dimensional, nonlinear, and nonhydrostatic mesoscale framework. The distributions of precipitation strength and echo tops in the simulations are compared with radar data. Unsurprisingly, those storm features are most sensitive to the microphysics scheme. However, it is found that these variations in storm morphology have little influence on the simulated stratospheric momentum flux spectra. These results support the fundamental idea behind climate model parameterizations: that the large-scale storm conditions can be used to predict the spectrum of gravity wave momentum flux above the storm irrespective of the convective details that coarse-resolution models cannot capture. The simulated spectra are then contrasted with those obtained from a parameterization used in global climate models. The parameterization reproduces the shape of the spectra reasonably well but their magnitudes remain highly sensitive to the peak heating rate within the convective cells.

scholarly journals Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Andreas Ziemen ◽  
Marie-Luise Kapsch ◽  
Marlene Klockmann ◽  
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Discharge Rate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Heinrich Events ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. During these events, massive iceberg armadas were released by the Laurentide Ice Sheet, sailed across the Atlantic, and caused large-scale climate changes. We study these events in a fully coupled complex ice sheet–climate model with synchronous coupling between ice sheets and oceans. The ice discharges occur as internal variability of the model with a recurrence period of 5 kyr, an event duration of 1–1.5 kyr, and a peak discharge rate of about 50 mSv, roughly consistent with reconstructions. The climate response shows a two-stage behavior, with freshwater release effects dominating the surge phase and ice-sheet elevation effects dominating in the post-surge phase. As a direct response to the freshwater discharge during the surge phase, the deepwater formation in the North Atlantic decreases and the North Atlantic deepwater cell weakens by 3.5 Sv. With the reduced oceanic heat transport, the surface temperatures across the North Atlantic decrease, and the associated reduction in evaporation causes a drying in Europe. The ice discharge lowers the surface elevation in the Hudson Bay area and thus leads to increased precipitation and accelerated ice sheet regrowth in the post-surge phase. Furthermore, the jet stream widens to the north and becomes more zonal. This contributes to a weakening of the subpolar gyre, and a continued cooling over Europe even after the ice discharge. This two-stage behavior can explain previously contradicting model results and understandings of Heinrich Events.

scholarly journals Polar Middle Atmospheric Responses to Medium Energy Electron (MEE) Precipitation Using Numerical Model Simulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Ji-Hee Lee ◽  
Geonhwa Jee ◽  
Young-Sil Kwak ◽  
Heejin Hwang ◽  
Annika Seppälä ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Chemical Changes ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Mesospheric Temperature ◽  
High Energy Electrons ◽  
Circulation Changes

Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is known to be an important source of chemical changes in the polar middle atmosphere in winter. Recent modeling studies further suggest that chemical changes induced by EPP can also cause dynamic changes in the middle atmosphere. In this study, we investigated the atmospheric responses to the precipitation of medium-to-high energy electrons (MEEs) over the period 2005–2013 using the Specific Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM). Our results show that the MEE precipitation significantly increases the amounts of NOx and HOx, resulting in mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses by up to 60% and 25% respectively during polar winter. The MEE-induced ozone loss generally increases the temperature in the lower mesosphere but decreases the temperature in the upper mesosphere with large year-to-year variability, not only by radiative effects but also by adiabatic effects. The adiabatic effects by meridional circulation changes may be dominant for the mesospheric temperature changes. In particular, the meridional circulation changes occasionally act in opposite ways to vary the temperature in terms of height variations, especially at around the solar minimum period with low geomagnetic activity, which cancels out the temperature changes to make the average small in the polar mesosphere for the 9-year period.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Waves in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Observed by SABER

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (12) ◽  
pp. 4384-4399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolando R. Garcia ◽  
Ruth Lieberman ◽  
James M. Russell ◽  
Martin G. Mlynczak
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Normal Modes ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Broadband Emission ◽  
Summer Hemisphere ◽  
Mean Structure ◽  
Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Observations made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board NASA’s Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite have been processed using Salby’s fast Fourier synoptic mapping (FFSM) algorithm. The mapped data provide a first synoptic look at the mean structure and traveling waves of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) since the launch of the TIMED satellite in December 2001. The results show the presence of various wave modes in the MLT, which reach largest amplitude above the mesopause and include Kelvin and Rossby–gravity waves, eastward-propagating diurnal oscillations (“non-sun-synchronous tides”), and a set of quasi-normal modes associated with the so-called 2-day wave. The latter exhibits marked seasonal variability, attaining large amplitudes during the solstices and all but disappearing at the equinoxes. SABER data also show a strong quasi-stationary Rossby wave signal throughout the middle atmosphere of the winter hemisphere; the signal extends into the Tropics and even into the summer hemisphere in the MLT, suggesting ducting by westerly background zonal winds. At certain times of the year, the 5-day Rossby normal mode and the 4-day wave associated with instability of the polar night jet are also prominent in SABER data.

scholarly journals Middle atmosphere response to the solar cycle in irradiance and ionizing particle precipitation

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 5045-5077 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Semeniuk ◽  
V. I. Fomichev ◽  
J. C. McConnell ◽  
C. Fu ◽  
S. M. L. Melo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
Particle Precipitation ◽  
Solar Cycle Variation ◽  
Cycle Variation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of NOx and HOx production by three types of energetic particle precipitation (EPP), auroral zone medium and high energy electrons, solar proton events and galactic cosmic rays on the middle atmosphere is examined using a chemistry climate model. This process study uses ensemble simulations forced by transient EPP derived from observations with one-year repeating sea surface temperatures and fixed chemical boundary conditions for cases with and without solar cycle in irradiance. Our model results show a wintertime polar stratosphere ozone reduction of between 3 and 10 % in agreement with previous studies. EPP is found to modulate the radiative solar cycle effect in the middle atmosphere in a significant way, bringing temperature and ozone variations closer to observed patterns. The Southern Hemisphere polar vortex undergoes an intensification from solar minimum to solar maximum instead of a weakening. This changes the solar cycle variation of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, with a weakening during solar maxima compared to solar minima. In response, the tropical tropopause temperature manifests a statistically significant solar cycle variation resulting in about 4 % more water vapour transported into the lower tropical stratosphere during solar maxima compared to solar minima. This has implications for surface temperature variation due to the associated change in radiative forcing.

Why does the climate response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling differ? 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Kay ◽  
Jason Chalmers
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations ◽  
Radiative Feedbacks

<p>While the long-standing quest to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity has resulted in intense scrutiny of the processes controlling idealized greenhouse warming, the processes controlling idealized greenhouse cooling have received less attention. Here, differences in the climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations are assessed in state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model experiments. One hundred and fifty years after an imposed instantaneous forcing change, surface global warming from a carbon dioxide doubling (abrupt-2xCO2, 2.43 K) is larger than the surface global cooling from a carbon dioxide halving (abrupt-0p5xCO2, 1.97 K). Both forcing and feedback differences explain these climate response differences. Multiple approaches show the radiative forcing for a carbon dioxide doubling is ~10% larger than for a carbon dioxide halving. In addition, radiative feedbacks are less negative in the doubling experiments than in the halving experiments. Specifically, less negative tropical shortwave cloud feedbacks and more positive subtropical cloud feedbacks lead to more greenhouse 2xCO2 warming than 0.5xCO2 greenhouse cooling. Motivated to directly isolate the influence of cloud feedbacks on these experiments, additional abrupt-2xCO2 and abrupt-0p5xCO2 experiments with disabled cloud-climate feedbacks were run. Comparison of these “cloud-locked” simulations with the original “cloud active” simulations shows cloud feedbacks help explain the nonlinear global surface temperature response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling. Overall, these results demonstrate that both radiative forcing and radiative feedbacks are needed to explain differences in the surface climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations.</p>

Large ensemble assessment of how the global surface warming response to cumulative carbon differs for negative and positive carbon emissions  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Negar Vakilifard ◽  
Katherine Turner ◽  
Ric Williams ◽  
Philip Holden ◽  
Neil Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Negative Emission

<p>The controls of the effective transient climate response (TCRE), defined in terms of the dependence of surface warming since the pre-industrial to the cumulative carbon emission, is explained in terms of climate model experiments for a scenario including positive emissions and then negative emission over a period of 400 years. We employ a pre-calibrated ensemble of GENIE, grid-enabled integrated Earth system model, consisting of 86 members to determine the process of controlling TCRE in both CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and drawdown phases. Our results are based on the GENIE simulations with historical forcing from AD 850 including land use change, and the future forcing defined by CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and a non-CO<sub>2</sub> radiative forcing timeseries. We present the results for the point-source carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario as a negative emission scenario, following the medium representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), assuming that the rate of emission drawdown is 2 PgC/yr CO<sub>2</sub> for the duration of 100 years. The climate response differs between the periods of positive and negative carbon emissions with a greater ensemble spread during the negative carbon emissions. The controls of the spread in ensemble responses are explained in terms of a combination of thermal processes (involving ocean heat uptake and physical climate feedback), radiative processes (saturation in radiative forcing from CO<sub>2</sub> and non-CO<sub>2</sub> contributions) and carbon dependences (involving terrestrial and ocean carbon uptake).  </p>

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