Emergent Global Pandemic Risks, Complex Systems, and Population Health

Author(s):  
Sarah E. Curtis
Author(s):  
Patricia Goodson

This chapter discusses whether and how complex systems science (CSS) can revolutionize population health theory. First, the chapter defines theory and the practice of theory-building (or theorizing); second, it outlines some of the difficulties found in current population health theorizing; lastly, it characterizes the mechanisms through which CSS can influence, change, and revolutionize current theorizing efforts. The chapter also describes two examples of scholars who used CSS to challenge currently held assumptions and reframe complex health problems. Lastly, the author addresses the implications—of adopting a CSS approach to theorizing—for practice, policy development, and training of the future public health workforce.


Author(s):  
Yorghos Apostolopoulos

This chapter contextualizes the volume and describes its organization. It begins by delving into the limitations of the prevailing reductionist paradigm in population health science and the need for a transition from a typically risk factor–based science to a science that recognizes the whole and relationships among parts of pressing population health problems. Next, it walks readers through distinctions between public and population health on the one hand and key concepts of complexity on the other, while offering a shared understanding of population health science and complex systems science. The chapter also lays out the design of and potential audiences for this book.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Silverman ◽  
Umberto Gostoli ◽  
Stefano Picascia ◽  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Mark McCann ◽  
...  

AbstractToday’s most troublesome population health challenges are often driven by social and environmental determinants, which are difficult to model using traditional epidemiological methods. We agree with those who have argued for the wider adoption of agent-based modelling (ABM) in taking on these challenges. However, while ABM has been used occasionally in population health, we argue that for ABM to be most effective in the field it should be used as a means for answering questions normally inaccessible to the traditional epidemiological toolkit. In an effort to clearly illustrate the utility of ABM for population health research, and to clear up persistent misunderstandings regarding the method’s conceptual underpinnings, we offer a detailed presentation of the core concepts of complex systems theory, and summarise why simulations are essential to the study of complex systems. We then examine the current state of the art in ABM for population health, and propose they are well-suited for the study of the ‘wicked’ problems in population health, and could make significant contributions to theory and intervention development in these areas.


2022 ◽  
pp. 1354067X2110668
Author(s):  
Glen Rutherford

Relevant to the emerging field of semiotic cultural psychology theory (SCPT), the present paper considers ‘We’, ‘Us’, ‘I’ and ‘Me’ as semiotic and cultural psychology phenomena. Drawing on the semiotics of Saussure, Peirce, Jakobson, and Cousins, a semiotic dynamic ‘double-dyadic’ model of the signifier and the referent is proposed. For each ‘We’, ‘Us’, ‘I’ and ‘Me’, the COVID-19 global pandemic related cases are used to analyse and illustrate the signifier-referent model. Implications are drawn from the new model for the complex systems entailed in organizing self and culture. Finally, suggestions are made for testing the model.


Currently, population health science is an integral part of academic curricula around the world. For over a century, the principles of the reductionist paradigm have guided population health curricula, training, research, and action. Researchers continue to draw upon these principles when theorizing, conceptualizing, designing studies, analyzing, and devising interventions to tackle complex population health problems. However, unresolved impasses in delineating and managing pressing population health challenges have catalyzed calls for the integration of complex systems science–grounded theoretical, methodological, and analytical approaches into population health science. Mounting evidence denotes that a complex systems paradigm can bring about dramatic, multipronged changes for education and training and lead to innovative research, interventions, and policies. Despite the large and untapped promise of complex systems, the haphazard knowledge base from which academics, researchers, students, policymakers, and practitioners can draw has slowed their integration into the population health sciences. This volume fulfills this growing need by providing the knowledge base necessary to introduce a holistic complex systems paradigm in population health science. As such, it is the first comprehensive book in population health science that meaningfully integrates complex systems theory, methodology, modeling, computational simulation, and real-world applications, while incorporating current population health theoretical, methodological, and analytical perspectives. It is intended as a programmatic primer across a broad spectrum of population health stakeholders—from university professors and graduate students to researchers, policymakers, and practitioners. This book also aims to provoke long-overdue discourse on the need for updated new curricula in the population health sciences.


Author(s):  
Yorghos Apostolopoulos

Many population health challenges have eluded scientists and policymakers for years because of misunderstanding of dynamic complexity. This chapter advocates an epistemological overhaul in population health science based on the premise that population health problems should be studied as complex systems because they operate as such. The proposed overhaul is predicated on the development of a new complex-systems-science–driven paradigm for a new population health science. It is founded on a fundamental shift in scientific thinking: from a quest for causes and accurate predictions to “control” problems, which inappropriate science and sheer uncontrollability of complex problems have curtailed, to knowledge generation, based on complex-systems-science–grounded theories and analytical methods to better understand, anticipate, curb, and manage health challenges, by way of harnessing their complexity. As both current and proposed epistemologies represent models of simpler and complex problems, respectively, appropriate use of each under the proposed paradigm can only strengthen population health science. These emerging ideas delve into the known as well as the possible and still unknown. Some ideas are grounded in long-standing scientific evidence, while others are of an emerging nature. Some are testable while others are partially tested, and still others remain untested “fantasies” about how to contend with intractable population health challenges.


Author(s):  
Brian Castellani

While the story of population health in the 20th century is one of tremendous success, at the global level (and across various countries) it presently faces a crisis of complexity, due in large measure to the forces of globalization. In response, a growing network of researchers have called for the field of population health to make the “complexity turn” to the complexity sciences. To do so, however, a list of challenges need to be addressed. In this chapter, the author uses a complex systems perspective to critically review how the current conventions of population health—from policy and interventions to research design and methods to accepted standards of practice and education—can be advanced to more effectively deal with its crisis of complexity. The review takes the form of a “top 10” list of critiques.


Author(s):  
Leah Frerichs ◽  
Natalie R. Smith

There have been increasing calls to use complex systems research approaches to address pressing population health problems. To respond to this call, the authors argue that researchers must shift their thinking in how they design population health research studies. Although designing research from a complex systems approach follows the same basic steps as traditional studies that are anchored in statistical, deductive research, new elements of dynamic complexity must be taken into account. This chapter provides an overview of designing research grounded in complex systems. It details the research design steps following a complex systems approach, emphasizing the initial stages of defining and narrowing the research focus. Complex systems issues compel researchers to define objectives and ask questions about how factors such as interconnections, delays between cause and effect, and nonlinear relationships influence outcomes of interest. The initial questions subsequently shape the research design and approach, where systems mapping and computational modeling and simulation methods are often highly relevant. The chapter concludes with a discussion about the complementary and synergistic nature of complex systems and traditional research approaches.


Author(s):  
Michael K. Lemke

When encountering complex systems, the human mind applies various heuristics, and from these heuristics, mental models—how people understand phenomena in the real world—emerge, which shape their decisions. Unfortunately, the same limitations that confound heuristics similarly cloud people’s mental models and result in fundamental misunderstandings and lead to flawed decisions. The development of models, through the act of modeling, provide means to mitigate inherent shortcomings in people’s cognitive abilities and mental models and can stimulate new ways of understanding and acting in population health, grounded in model thinking. For the study of complex systems in particular, computational simulation modeling approaches enable novel scientific inquiry and facilitate decision-making. Engagement in modeling can also overcome the difficulties in learning imposed by complex systems, leading to transformed mental models and the proliferation of model thinking in population health research and action.


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