Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena

Network theory, as emerging from complex systems science, can provide critical predictive power for mitigating the global warming crisis and other societal challenges. Here we discuss the main differences of this approach to classical numerical modeling and highlight several cases where the network approach substantially improved the prediction of high-impact phenomena: 1) El Niño events, 2) droughts in the central Amazon, 3) extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes, 4) the Indian summer monsoon, and 5) extreme stratospheric polar vortex states that influence the occurrence of wintertime cold spells in northern Eurasia. In this perspective, we argue that network-based approaches can gainfully complement numerical modeling.

Educating for Cyber (Security)

This chapter considers the problem of educating for cybersecurity from the perspective of complex systems science. It argues that education is a process that has evolved in human social systems to curate, increase, and transmit the information needed for system survival. Education creates an increase in the negentropy (or useful information) of those systems as they seek to maximize the acquisition and throughput of energy—a physical principle known as maximum entropy production (MaxEP). Civilizations have responded to this principle over time by finding new solutions to the Earth’s MaxEP and becoming more complex in the process. A key part of this complexification is education. And in the present cyber age it is, as in previous ages, a lagging process cobbled together from the structures and processes of previous ages. The current education responses may soon be superseded as a new solution to the Earth’s MaxEP—the technological singularity—looms.

Critical Analysis of Complex Systems Science and Mechanics

For many highly complex, ecological, physical and societal structures, the conventional hypotheses that underpin many theoretical and analytical frameworks are false. Complex systems research elucidates why and when such preconceptions are incorrect, as well as alternate paradigms for comprehending complex series characteristics. Complexity characteristics, the tradeoff between effectiveness and adaptation, the need of matching the complexities of networks to that of their surroundings, multiresolution assessment, and evolution are among the fundamental concepts of Complex Systems (CS) research introduced in this study. Instead of simulating particular dynamics, we concentrate on the general characteristics of systems. We didactically explain a theoretical and analytic strategy for comprehending and engaging with the complicated processes of our environment rather than giving a complete overview. This article requires just a middle school mathematics and science foundation in order to make it approachable to researchers from all disciplines, decision-makers from business, government, and charity, and anybody engaged in networks and civilization.

Philosophy for Public Health and Public Policy

This book provides a novel theory of the philosophy of public health and public policy. It is addressed both to philosophers and to policymakers, inviting policymakers to rethink the nature of public policy, and philosophers to rethink the nature of philosophy. The book is divided into three parts. Part I argues that a number of popular philosophical tools such as thought experiments are poorly calibrated for providing guidance to policymakers. It advances a new approach to philosophy, which draws both on pragmatism and on complex systems science. Part II examines the role of ethical values in public health. It argues that certain commonly expressed worries about public health paternalism are much less convincing than is often thought. It further argues that individuals have a right to public health. If a state does not take easy steps to reduce risks to health, then it will often violate individuals’ right to public health, and should be criticized as a Neglectful State. Part III integrates the complex systems analysis developed in Part I with the ethical framework developed in Part II. It examines three spheres in which public health policy needs to make choices—responsibility, equality, and networks, focusing on three challenges: (1) how to make use of judgements of responsibility, and whom to hold responsible; (2) how to specify the goal of health equity and how to pursue it and (3) the implications of the fact that most health risks are contagious or can be amplified by socially mediated networks of causes.

The Cultural Evolution of Creative Ideas and Social Innovations

We apply complex systems science to the study of social systems and show how a complex-systems-inspired theory of creativity, which is referred to as ‘honing theory’, provides insight into social innovation. We propose that creativity and social innovation are processes of self-organization that yield a lower-entropy state in worldviews, which are self-organizing webs of understanding. This allows us to offer a novel perspective on the evolution of technology, the role of creativity in cultural evolution and the manner in which creativity drives innovation in social systems, such as the economy. We also introduce creative destruction as having metaphoric relevance for a social system transition from entropy to negentropy, and offer a social innovation example addressing economic collapse and resilient reorganization. We conclude that concepts from complex systems theory, and particularly entropy, shed light on both creativity and social innovation and further our understanding of how innovation affects social systems, such as in cultural and economic change.

An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and Its Applications

The standard assumptions that underlie many conceptual and quantitative frameworks do not hold for many complex physical, biological, and social systems. Complex systems science clarifies when and why such assumptions fail and provides alternative frameworks for understanding the properties of complex systems. This review introduces some of the basic principles of complex systems science, including complexity profiles, the tradeoff between efficiency and adaptability, the necessity of matching the complexity of systems to that of their environments, multiscale analysis, and evolutionary processes. Our focus is on the general properties of systems as opposed to the modeling of specific dynamics; rather than provide a comprehensive review, we pedagogically describe a conceptual and analytic approach for understanding and interacting with the complex systems of our world. This paper assumes only a high school mathematical and scientific background so that it may be accessible to academics in all fields, decision-makers in industry, government, and philanthropy, and anyone who is interested in systems and society.

How Complex Systems Science Can Revolutionize Population Health Theory

This chapter discusses whether and how complex systems science (CSS) can revolutionize population health theory. First, the chapter defines theory and the practice of theory-building (or theorizing); second, it outlines some of the difficulties found in current population health theorizing; lastly, it characterizes the mechanisms through which CSS can influence, change, and revolutionize current theorizing efforts. The chapter also describes two examples of scholars who used CSS to challenge currently held assumptions and reframe complex health problems. Lastly, the author addresses the implications—of adopting a CSS approach to theorizing—for practice, policy development, and training of the future public health workforce.

Bridging the Divide

This chapter contextualizes the volume and describes its organization. It begins by delving into the limitations of the prevailing reductionist paradigm in population health science and the need for a transition from a typically risk factor–based science to a science that recognizes the whole and relationships among parts of pressing population health problems. Next, it walks readers through distinctions between public and population health on the one hand and key concepts of complexity on the other, while offering a shared understanding of population health science and complex systems science. The chapter also lays out the design of and potential audiences for this book.