Markers of Climate Change: Analysing Extreme Temperature Indices Over the Himalayan Mountains and Adjoining Punjab Plains

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-161
Author(s):  
Manu Raj Sharma ◽  
Vishwa B. S. Chandel ◽  
Karanjot Kaur Brar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Himalayan Mountains

scholarly journals Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 424
Author(s):  
Weiwei Xiao ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
De Li Liu ◽  
Puyu Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Han River ◽  
Han River Basin ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Extreme Indices

Estimating the changes in the spatial–temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events under future climate scenarios is critical to provide reference information to help mitigate climate change. In this study, we analyzed 16 extreme temperature indices calculated based on downscaled data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) that were obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the Han River Basin (HRB). The results indicate that the downscaled data from 28 GCMs reproduced a consistent sign of recent trends for all extreme temperature indices except the DTR for the historical period (1961–2013). We found significantly increasing trends for the warm extreme indices (i.e., TXx, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, SU, TR, and WSDI) and considerably decreasing trends for the cold extreme indices (i.e., TX10p, TN10p, CSDI, FD, ID) under both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100. Spatially, great changes in warm extremes will occur in the west and southeast of the HRB in the future. The projected changes in extreme temperatures will impact the eco-environment and agricultural production. Our findings will help regional managers adopt countermeasures and strategies to adapt to future climate change, especially extreme weather events.

scholarly journals Historical Variability And Future Changes In Seasonal Extreme Temperature Over Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azar Zarrin ◽  
Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari ◽  
Samira Hassani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Taylor Diagram ◽  
Temperature Indices

Abstract The extreme temperature indices (ETI) are an important indicator of climate change, the detection of their changes over the next years can play an important role in the Climate Action Plan (CAP). In this study, four temperature indices (Mean of daily minimum temperature (TN), Mean of daily maximum temperature (TX), Cold-spell duration index (CSDI), and Warm-spell duration index (WSDI)) were defined by ETCCDI and two new indices of the Maximum number of consecutive frost days (CFD) and the Maximum number of consecutive summer days (CSU) were calculated to examine ETIs in Iran under climate change conditions. We used minimum and maximum daily temperature of five General circulation models (GCMs) including HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M from the set of CMIP5 Bias-Correction models. We investigated Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – during the historical (1965-2005) and future (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) periods. The performance of each model was evaluated using the Taylor diagram on a seasonal scale. Among models, GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES models showed the highest, and NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR models showed the lowest performance in Iran. Then an ensemble model was generated using Independence Weighted Mean (IWM) method. The results of multi-model ensembles (MME) showed a higher performance compared to individual CMIP5 models in all seasons. Also, the uncertainty value was significantly reduced, and the correlation value of the MME model reached 0.95 in all seasons. Additionally, it is found that WSDI and CSU indices showed positive anomalies in future periods and CSDI and CFD showed negative anomalies throughout Iran. Also, at the end of the 21st century, no cold spells are projected in almost every part of Iran. The CSU index showed that Iran's summer days are increasing sharply, according to the results of the RCP8.5 scenario in spring (MAM) and autumn (SON), the CSU will increase by 18.79 and 20.51 days, respectively at the end of the 21st century. It is projected that in the future, the spring and autumn seasons will be shorter and, summers, will be much longer than before.

التغير المناخي واثره في المقنن المائي لمحصول العنب في محافظة ديالى

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (34) ◽  
pp. 391-422
Author(s):  
اشواق حسن حميد صالح
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Solar Brightness ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Climate Station ◽  
The Times ◽  
High Level ◽  
Very High

Climate change and its impact on water resources is the problem of the times. Therefore, this study is concerned with the subject of climate change and its impact on the water ration of the grape harvest in Diyala Governorate. The study was based on the data of the Khanaqin climate station for the period 1973-2017, (1986-2017) due to lack of data at governorate level. The general trend of the elements of the climate and its effect on the water formula was extracted. The equation of change was extracted for the duration of the study. The statistical analysis was also used between the elements of the climate (actual brightness, normal temperature, micro and maximum degrees Celsius, wind speed m / s, relative humidity% The results of the statistical analysis confirm that the water ration for the study area is based mainly on the X7 evaporation / netting variable, which is affected by a set of independent variables X1 Solar Brightness X4 X5 Extreme Temperature Wind Speed ​​3X Minimal Temperature and Very High Level .

scholarly journals Change in mean and extreme temperature at Yingkou station in Northeast China from 1904 to 2017

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoying Xue ◽  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Xiubao Sun ◽  
Panfeng Zhang ◽  
Yuyu Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northeast China ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Past ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Change In Mean

AbstractThe understanding of centennial trends of extreme temperature has been impeded due to the lack of early-year observations. In this paper, we collect and digitize the daily temperature data set of Northeast China Yingkou meteorological station since 1904. After quality control and homogenization, we analyze the changes of mean and extreme temperature in the past 114 years. The results show that mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) all have increasing trends during 1904–2017. The increase of Tmin is the most obvious with the rate of 0.34 °C/decade. The most significant warming occurs in spring and winter with the rate of Tmean reaching 0.32 °C/decade and 0.31 °C/decade, respectively. Most of the extreme temperature indices as defined using absolute and relative thresholds of Tmax and Tmin also show significant changes, with cold events witnessing a more significant downward trend. The change is similar to that reported for global land and China for the past six decades. It is also found that the extreme highest temperature (1958) and lowest temperature (1920) records all occurred in the first half of the whole period, and the change of extreme temperature indices before 1950 is different from that of the recent decades, in particular for diurnal temperature range (DTR), which shows an opposite trend in the two time periods.

Trends in extreme temperature indices in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin of China during 1961–2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 134 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 51-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Wang ◽  
Denghua Yan ◽  
Xiaoyan He ◽  
Shaohua Liu ◽  
Cheng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temperature Indices

scholarly journals Future Temperature Extremes Will Be More Harmful: A New Critical Factor for Improved Forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 4015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Costas A. Varotsos ◽  
Yuri A. Mazei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
The Past

There is increasing evidence that extreme weather events such as frequent and intense cold spells and heat waves cause unprecedented deaths and diseases in both developed and developing countries. Thus, they require extensive and immediate research to limit the risks involved. Average temperatures in Europe in June–July 2019 were the hottest ever measured and attributed to climate change. The problem, however, of a thorough study of natural climate change is the lack of experimental data from the long past, where anthropogenic activity was then very limited. Today, this problem can be successfully resolved using, inter alia, biological indicators that have provided reliable environmental information for thousands of years in the past. The present study used high-resolution quantitative reconstruction data derived from biological records of Lake Silvaplana sediments covering the period 1181–1945. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a slight temperature change in the past could trigger current or future intense temperature change or changes. Modern analytical tools were used for this purpose, which eventually showed that temperature fluctuations were persistent. That is, they exhibit long memory with scaling behavior, which means that an increase (decrease) in temperature in the past was always followed by another increase (decrease) in the future with multiple amplitudes. Therefore, the increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events due to climate change will be more pronounced than expected. This will affect human well-being and mortality more than that estimated in today’s modeling scenarios. The scaling property detected here can be used for more accurate monthly to decadal forecasting of extreme temperature events. Thus, it is possible to develop improved early warning systems that will reduce the public health risk at local, national, and international levels.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Land Cover Change and Vegetation Dynamics in Xinjiang, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 4865 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haochen Yu ◽  
Zhengfu Bian ◽  
Shouguo Mu ◽  
Junfang Yuan ◽  
Fu Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Vegetation Growth

Since the Silk-road Economic belt initiatives were proposed, Xinjiang has provided a vital strategic link between China and Central Asia and even Eurasia. However, owing to the weak and vulnerable ecosystem in this arid region, even a slight climate change would probably disrupt vegetation dynamics and land cover change. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land-use/Land-cover (LULC) responses to climate change. Here, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method and linear regression method (LRM) were applied to recognize the variation trends of the NDVI, temperature, and precipitation between the growing season and other seasons. Combining the transfer matrix of LULC, the Pearson correlation analysis was utilized to reveal the response of NDVI to climate change and climate extremes. The results showed that: (1) Extreme temperature showed greater variation than extreme precipitation. Both the ESMD and the LRM exhibited an increased volatility trend for the NDVI, with the significant improvement regions mainly located in the margin of basins. (2) Since climate change had a warming trend, the permanent snow has been reduced by 20,436 km2. The NDVI has a higher correlation to precipitation than temperature. Furthermore, the humid trend could provide more suitable conditions for vegetation growth, but the warm trend might prevent vegetation growth. Spatially, the response of the NDVI in North Xinjiang (NXC) was more sensitive to precipitation than that in South Xinjiang (SXC). Seasonally, the NDVI has a greater correlation to precipitation in spring and summer, but the opposite occurs in autumn. (3) The response of the NDVI to extreme precipitation was stronger than the response to extreme temperature. The reduction in diurnal temperature variation was beneficial to vegetation growth. Therefore, continuous concentrated precipitation and higher night-time-temperatures could enhance vegetation growth in Xinjiang. This study could enrich the understanding of the response of land cover change and vegetation dynamics to climate extremes and provide scientific support for eco-environment sustainable management in the arid regions.

scholarly journals Temporal Trends and Spatial Patterns of Temperature and Its Extremes over the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (1960–2014), China

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Wei Wei ◽  
Baitian Wang ◽  
Kebin Zhang ◽  
Zhongjie Shi ◽  
Genbatu Ge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Source Region ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Cold Tolerant ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Sand Source

In order to examine temperature changes and extremes in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR), ten extreme temperature indices were selected, categorized, and calculated spanning the period 1960–2014, and the spatiotemporal variability and trends of temperature and extremes on multitimescales in the BTSSR were investigated using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, Sen’s slope estimator, and linear regression. Results show that mean temperatures have increased and extreme temperature events have become more frequent. Annual temperature has recorded a significant increasing trend over the BTSSR, in which 51 stations exhibited significant increasing trends (p<0.05); winter temperature recorded the most significant increasing trend in the northwest subregion. All extreme temperature indices showed warming trends at most stations; a higher warming slope in extreme temperature mainly occurred along the northeast border and northwest border and in the central-southern mountain area. As extreme low temperature events decrease, vegetation damage due to freezing temperatures will reduce and low cold-tolerant plants may expand their distribution range northward to revegetate barren areas in the BTSSR. However, in water-limited areas of the BTSSR, increasing temperatures in the growing season may exacerbate stress associated with plants relying on precipitation due to higher temperatures combining with decreasing precipitation.

scholarly journals Substantial reduction in thermo-suitable microhabitat for a rainforest marsupial under climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 20180189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Meade ◽  
Jeremy VanDerWal ◽  
Collin Storlie ◽  
Stephen Williams ◽  
Arnaud Gourret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Evaporative Water ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Potential Applicability

Increases in mean temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change increase the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. Although extreme temperature events are likely to become increasingly important drivers of species' response to climate change, the impacts are poorly understood owing mainly to a lack of understanding of species’ physiological responses to extreme temperatures. The physiological response of Pseudochirops archeri (green ringtail possum) to temperature extremes has been well studied, demonstrating that heterothermy is used to reduce evaporative water loss at temperatures greater than 30°C. Dehydration is likely to limit survival when animals are exposed to a critical thermal regime of ≥30°C, for ≥5 h, for ≥4 consecutive days. In this study, we use this physiological information to assess P. archeri's vulnerability to climate change. We identify areas of current thermo-suitable habitat (validated using sightings), then estimate future thermo-suitable habitat for P. archeri , under four emission scenarios. Our projections indicate that up to 86% of thermo-suitable habitat could be lost by 2085, a serious conservation concern for the species. We demonstrate the potential applicability of our approach for generating spatio-temporally explicit predictions of the vulnerability of species to extreme temperature events, providing a focus for efficient and targeted conservation and habitat restoration management.

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