Climate Change as a Systemic Risk in Finance: Are Macroprudential Authorities Up to the Task?

2021 ◽  
pp. 227-257
Author(s):  
Seraina Grünewald
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systemic Risk

scholarly journals Co-production: Learning from Contexts

2021 ◽  
pp. 37-56
Author(s):  
Katharine Vincent ◽  
Anna Steynor ◽  
Alice McClure ◽  
Emma Visman ◽  
Katinka Lund Waagsaether ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Knowledge Systems ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Diverse Backgrounds ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Study Experience ◽  
In Trans

AbstractGiven that climate change is a complex, systemic risk, addressing it requires new knowledge. One way of generating such new knowledge is through co-production, or collaborative development by a range of stakeholders with diverse backgrounds embedded in trans-disciplinary processes. This chapter reflects on emerging experiences of co-producing decision-relevant climate information to enable climate-resilient planning and adaptation to climate change in Africa. It outlines principles that have emerged and evolved through experiential learning from a wide range of co-production processes in Africa. It also uses case study experience from various contexts to highlight some of the more contextual challenges to co-production such as trust, power and knowledge systems and institutional factors (mandates, roles and incentives) and illustrates ways that trans-disciplinary co-production has addressed these challenges to mainstream a response to the climate challenge.

scholarly journals Systemic Risk in Global Agricultural Markets and Trade Liberalization under Climate Change: Synchronized Crop-Yield Change and Agricultural Price Volatility

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10680
Author(s):  
Yoji Kunimitsu ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Toshichika Iizumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Random Disturbance ◽  
Yield Change ◽  
Agricultural Price

Climate change will increase simultaneous crop failures or too abundant harvests, creating global synchronized yield change (SYC), and may decrease stability in the portfolio of food supply sources in agricultural trade. This study evaluated the influence of SYC on the global agricultural market and trade liberalization. The analysis employed a global computable general equilibrium model combined with crop models of four major grains (i.e., rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans), based on predictions of five global climate models. Simulation results show that (1) the SYC structure was statistically robust among countries and four crops, and will be enhanced by climate change, (2) such synchronicity increased the agricultural price volatility and lowered social welfare levels more than expected in the random disturbance (non-SYC) case, and (3) trade liberalization benefited both food-importing and exporting regions, but such effects were degraded by SYC. These outcomes were due to synchronicity in crop-yield change and its ranges enhanced by future climate change. Thus, SYC is a cause of systemic risk to food security and must be considered in designing agricultural trade policies and insurance systems.

scholarly journals Research into the Mechanism for the Impact of Climate Change on Systemic Risk—A Case Study of China’s Small- and Medium-sized Commercial Banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9582
Author(s):  
Yongping Liu ◽  
Chunzhong Huang ◽  
Zongbao Zou ◽  
Qiao Chen ◽  
Xuan Chu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Net Interest Margin ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Positive Meaning ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is one of the gravest threats facing human society today, as well as an important factor for financial stability. This study takes 11 small- and medium-sized listed banks as subjects, measures the banks’ systemic risk using the CoVaR model and climate change using daily average temperature, and explores the mechanism between these two factors. Additionally, it investigates the influence of climate change on systemic risk in commercial banks through intermediary variables (e.g., commercial banks’ loan-deposit ratio, NPL ratio, and net interest margin). The results are as follows: (1) There is a positive correlation between climate change and systemic risk in banks within the confidence interval. (2)The indirect effect of climate change on systemic risk in banks through the NPL ratio is significantly positive, meaning that climate warming increases the NPL ratio and therefore increases the banks’ systemic risk.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013)

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Butler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Scientific Journals ◽  
Environmental Determinants ◽  
Point Scale ◽  
Comprehensive Review ◽  
Comprehensive Literature Review ◽  
Heat Effects

Background: Anthropogenic global warming, interacting with social and other environmental determinants, constitutes a profound health risk. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review for 1989–2013 (inclusive), the first 25 years in which this topic appeared in scientific journals. It explores the extent to which articles have identified potentially catastrophic, civilization-endangering health risks associated with climate change. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar were primarily used to identify articles which were then ranked on a three-point scale. Each score reflected the extent to which papers discussed global systemic risk. Citations were also analyzed. Results: Of 2143 analyzed papers 1546 (72%) were scored as one. Their citations (165,133) were 82% of the total. The proportion of annual papers scored as three was initially high, as were their citations but declined to almost zero by 1996, before rising slightly from 2006. Conclusions: The enormous expansion of the literature appropriately reflects increased understanding of the importance of climate change to global health. However, recognition of the most severe, existential, health risks from climate change was generally low. Most papers instead focused on infectious diseases, direct heat effects and other disciplinary-bounded phenomena and consequences, even though scientific advances have long called for more inter-disciplinary collaboration.

scholarly journals Understanding systemic risk induced by climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.I. Hui-Min ◽  
W.A.N.G. Xue-Chun ◽  
Z.H.A.O. Xiao-Fan ◽  
Q.I. Ye
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systemic Risk

Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-729
Author(s):  
Roslyn Gleadow ◽  
Jim Hanan ◽  
Alan Dorin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Food Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Plant Interactions ◽  
Plant Insect Interactions ◽  
Native Habitat ◽  
Insect Pollinators ◽  
Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland

2001 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Moss ◽  
James Oswald ◽  
David Baines
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Breeding Success
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