scholarly journals Identifying Synergistic Interventions to Address COVID-19 Using a Large Scale Agent-Based Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 655-662
Author(s):  
Junjiang Li ◽  
Philippe J. Giabbanelli
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based

scholarly journals An Agent Based Model to Detect Variations in the Transmission of Potters from Baetica Province

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Coto-Sarmiento ◽  
Simon Carrignon
Keyword(s):  
Roman Empire ◽  
Social Learning ◽  
Material Culture ◽  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scale Production ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Pottery Production ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modes Of Transmission

The goal of this study is to analyse the transmission of technical skills among potters within the Roman Empire. Specifically, our case study has been focused on the production processes based on Baetica province (currently Andalusia) from 1st to 3rd century AD. Variability of material culture allows observing different production patterns that can explain how social learning evolves. Some differences can be detected in the making techniques processes through time and space that might explain different degrees of specialization. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to identify some evidence of social learning strategies in the archaeological record. In Archaeology, this process has been analysed by the study of the production of handmade pottery. In our case, we want to know if the modes of transmission could be similar with a more standardized production as Roman Age. We propose here an Agent-Based Model to compare different cultural processes of learning transmission. Archaeological evidence will be used to design the model. In this model, we implement a simple mechanism of pottery production with different social learning processes under different scenarios. In particular, the aim of this study is to quantify which one of those processes explain better the copying mechanisms among potters revealed in our dataset. We believe that the model presented here can provide a strong baseline for the exploration of transmission processes related to large-scale production.

scholarly journals Identifying Synergistic Interventions to Address COVID-19 Using a Large Scale Agent-Based Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjiang Li ◽  
Philippe J. Giabbanelli
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Remote Work ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Small Set ◽  
Factorial Design Of Experiments ◽  
The Individual

AbstractThere is a range of public health tools and interventions to address the global pandemic of COVID-19. Although it is essential for public health efforts to comprehensively identify which interventions have the largest impact on preventing new cases, most of the modeling studies that support such decision-making efforts have only considered a very small set of interventions. In addition, previous studies predominantly considered interventions as independent or examined a single scenario in which every possible intervention was applied. Reality has been more nuanced, as a subset of all possible interventions may be in effect for a given time period, in a given place. In this paper, we use cloud-based simulations and a previously published Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 (Covasim) to measure the individual and interacting contribution of interventions on reducing new infections in the US over 6 months. Simulated interventions include face masks, working remotely, stay-at-home orders, testing, contact tracing, and quarantining. Through a factorial design of experiments, we find that mask wearing together with transitioning to remote work/schooling has the largest impact. Having sufficient capacity to immediately and effectively perform contact tracing has a smaller contribution, primarily via interacting effects.

scholarly journals Real-time Analysis of City Scale Transportation Networks in New Orleans Metropolitan Area using an Agent Based Model Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 271 ◽  
pp. 06007
Author(s):  
Millard McElwee ◽  
Bingyu Zhao ◽  
Kenichi Soga
Keyword(s):  
New Orleans ◽  
Real Time ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transportation Networks ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Real Time Analysis

The primary focus of this research is to develop and implement an agent-based model (ABM) to analyze the New Orleans Metropolitan transportation network near real-time. ABMs have grown in popularity because of their ability to analyze multifaceted community scale resilience with hundreds of thousands of links and millions of agents. Road closures and reduction in capacities are examples of influences on the weights or removal of edges which can affect the travel time, speed, and route of agents in the transportation model. Recent advances in high-performance computing (HPC) have made modeling networks on the city scale much less computationally intensive. We introduce an open-source ABM which utilizes parallel distributed computing to enable faster convergence to large scale problems. We simulate 50,000 agents on the entire southeastern Louisiana road network and part of Mississippi as well. This demonstrates the capability to simulate both city and regional scale transportation networks near real time.

Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Meluso ◽  
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Keyword(s):  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
System Level ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Bias Estimation ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems

Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) affect system evolution, yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Results from interviews with expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers “game the system” by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model (ABM) simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that system-level estimate accuracy and uncertainty depend on subsystem behavior and are not significantly affected by systems engineers' “gaming” strategy.

Understanding the dynamics of inter-provincial migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: an agent-based modeling study

SIMULATION ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 003754972097512
Author(s):  
Hung Khanh Nguyen ◽  
Raymond Chiong ◽  
Manuel Chica ◽  
Richard H Middleton
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Migration Behavior ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Migration Flows

Recent large-scale migration flows from rural areas of the Mekong Delta (MKD) to larger cities in the South-East (SE) region of Vietnam have created the largest migration corridor in the country. This migration trend has further contributed to greater rural–urban disparities and widened the development gap between regions. In this study, our aim is to understand the migration dynamics and determine the most critical factors affecting the behavior of migrants in the MKD region. We present an agent-based model and incorporate the Theory of Planned Behavior to effectively break down migration intention into related components and contributing factors. A genetic algorithm is used for automated calibration and sensitivity analysis of model parameters, in order to validate our agent-based model. We further explore the migration behavior of people in certain demographic groups and delineate migration flows across cities and provinces from the MKD to the SE region.

scholarly journals Let the farmer decide: examining smallholder autonomy in large-scale land acquisitions with an agent-based model

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 105011
Author(s):  
Tim G Williams ◽  
Daniel G Brown ◽  
Arun Agrawal ◽  
Seth D Guikema
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Land Acquisitions ◽  
Large Scale Land

An agent-based model for resource allocation during relief distribution

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubel Das ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Transportation Cost ◽  
Social Benefit ◽  
Humanitarian Logistics ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Relief Distribution

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a model for allocating resources in various zones after a large-scale disaster. This study is motivated by the social dissatisfaction caused by inefficient relief distribution. Design/methodology/approach – This study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) framework for integrating stakeholders’ interests. The proposed model uses the TOPSIS method to create a hierarchy of demand points for qualitative and quantitative parameters. A decomposition algorithm has been proposed to solve fleet allocation. Findings – Relief distribution based on the urgency of demand points increases social benefit. A decomposition approach generates higher social benefit than the enumeration approach. The transportation cost is lower in the enumeration approach. Research limitations/implications – This study does not consider fleet contracts explicitly, but rather assumes a linear cost function for computing transportation costs. Practical implications – The outcomes of this study can be a valuable tool for relief distribution planning. This model may also help reduce the social dissatisfaction caused by ad hoc relief distribution. Originality/value – This study introduces an ABM for humanitarian logistics, proposes a decomposition approach, and explores the ontology of stakeholders of humanitarian logistics specific to last-mile distribution.

scholarly journals An Agent-Based Evaluation of Varying Evacuation Scenarios in Merapi: Simultaneous and Staged

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 317
Author(s):  
Jumadi Jumadi ◽  
Steve J. Carver ◽  
Duncan J. Quincey
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Merapi Volcano ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Mass evacuation should be conducted when a disaster threatens within a regional scale. It is reported that 400,000 people were evacuated during the last eruption of Merapi Volcano in 2010. Such a large-scale evacuation can lead to chaos or congestion, unless well managed. Staged evacuation has been investigated as a solution to reducing the degree of chaos during evacuation processes. However, there is a limited conception of how the stages should be ordered in terms of which group should move first and which group should follow. This paper proposes to develop evacuation stage ordering based on the geographical character of the people at risk and examine the ordering scenarios through an agent-based model of evacuation. We use several geographical features, such as proximity to the hazard, road network conditions (accessibility), size of the population, and demographics as the parameters for ranking the order of each population unit in GIS. From this concept, we produced several scenarios of ranking based on different weightings of the parameters. We applied the scenarios in an agent-based model of volcanic evacuation experiment to observe the results. Afterwards, the results were evaluated based on the ability to reduce the risk and spatio-temporal traffic density along road networks compared to the result of simultaneous evacuation to establish the relative effectiveness of the outcome. The result shows that the staged scenario has a better ability to reduce the potential traffic congestion during the peak time of the evacuation compared to the simultaneous strategy. However, the simultaneous strategy has better performance regarding the speed of reducing the risk. An evaluation of the relative performance of the four varying staged scenarios is also presented and discussed in this paper.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document