Understanding the dynamics of inter-provincial migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: an agent-based modeling study

SIMULATION ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 003754972097512
Author(s):  
Hung Khanh Nguyen ◽  
Raymond Chiong ◽  
Manuel Chica ◽  
Richard H Middleton
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Migration Behavior ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Migration Flows

Recent large-scale migration flows from rural areas of the Mekong Delta (MKD) to larger cities in the South-East (SE) region of Vietnam have created the largest migration corridor in the country. This migration trend has further contributed to greater rural–urban disparities and widened the development gap between regions. In this study, our aim is to understand the migration dynamics and determine the most critical factors affecting the behavior of migrants in the MKD region. We present an agent-based model and incorporate the Theory of Planned Behavior to effectively break down migration intention into related components and contributing factors. A genetic algorithm is used for automated calibration and sensitivity analysis of model parameters, in order to validate our agent-based model. We further explore the migration behavior of people in certain demographic groups and delineate migration flows across cities and provinces from the MKD to the SE region.

Testing an agent-based model of language choice on sociolinguistic survey data

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres Karjus ◽  
Martin Ehala
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Language Choice ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Actual Usage ◽  
Competition Models ◽  
Language Competition ◽  
Realistic Data

Abstract The paper outlines an agent-based model for language choice in multilingual communities and tests its performance on samples of data drawn from a large-scale sociolinguistic survey carried out in Estonia. While previous research in the field of language competition has focused on diachronic applications, utilizing rather abstract models of uniform speakers, we aim to model synchronic language competition among more realistic, data-based agents. We hypothesized that a reasonably parametrized simulation of interactions between agents endowed with interaction principles grounded in sociolinguistic research would give rise to a network structure resembling real-world social networks, and that the distribution of languages used in the model would resemble their actual usage distribution. The simulation was reasonably successful in replicating the real-world scenarios, while further analysis revealed that the model parameters differ in importance between samples. We conclude that such variation should be considered in parametrizing future language choice and competition models.

scholarly journals A MODEL OF DYNAMIC REWIRING AND KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE IN R&D NETWORKS

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (01n02) ◽  
pp. 1650004 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARIO V. TOMASELLO ◽  
CLAUDIO J. TESSONE ◽  
FRANK SCHWEITZER
Keyword(s):  
Network Performance ◽  
Formation Rate ◽  
Knowledge Exchange ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Knowledge Space ◽  
Interaction Radius ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Knowledge Stocks ◽  
Alliance Partners

This paper investigates the process of knowledge exchange in inter-firm Research and Development (R&D) alliances by means of an agent-based model. Extant research has pointed out that firms select alliance partners considering both network-related and network-unrelated features (e.g., social capital versus complementary knowledge stocks). In our agent-based model, firms are located in a metric knowledge space. The interaction rules incorporate an exploration phase and a knowledge transfer phase, during which firms search for a new partner and then evaluate whether they can establish an alliance to exchange their knowledge stocks. The model parameters determining the overall system properties are the rate at which alliances form and dissolve and the agents’ interaction radius. Next, we define a novel indicator of performance, based on the distance traveled by the firms in the knowledge space. Remarkably, we find that — depending on the alliance formation rate and the interaction radius — firms tend to cluster around one or more attractors in the knowledge space, whose position is an emergent property of the system. And, more importantly, we find that there exists an inverted U-shaped dependence of the network performance on both model parameters.

scholarly journals An Agent Based Model to Detect Variations in the Transmission of Potters from Baetica Province

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Coto-Sarmiento ◽  
Simon Carrignon
Keyword(s):  
Roman Empire ◽  
Social Learning ◽  
Material Culture ◽  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scale Production ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Pottery Production ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modes Of Transmission

The goal of this study is to analyse the transmission of technical skills among potters within the Roman Empire. Specifically, our case study has been focused on the production processes based on Baetica province (currently Andalusia) from 1st to 3rd century AD. Variability of material culture allows observing different production patterns that can explain how social learning evolves. Some differences can be detected in the making techniques processes through time and space that might explain different degrees of specialization. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to identify some evidence of social learning strategies in the archaeological record. In Archaeology, this process has been analysed by the study of the production of handmade pottery. In our case, we want to know if the modes of transmission could be similar with a more standardized production as Roman Age. We propose here an Agent-Based Model to compare different cultural processes of learning transmission. Archaeological evidence will be used to design the model. In this model, we implement a simple mechanism of pottery production with different social learning processes under different scenarios. In particular, the aim of this study is to quantify which one of those processes explain better the copying mechanisms among potters revealed in our dataset. We believe that the model presented here can provide a strong baseline for the exploration of transmission processes related to large-scale production.

scholarly journals Understanding transmission and control of the pork tapeworm with CystiAgent: a spatially explicit agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Wright Pray ◽  
Wayne Wakeland ◽  
William Pan ◽  
William E. Lambert ◽  
Hector H. Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Taenia Solium ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based

Abstract Background The pork tapeworm ( Taenia solium ) is a serious public health problem in rural low-resource areas of Latin America, Africa, and Asia, where the associated conditions of nuerocysticercosis (NCC) and porcine cysticercosis cause substantial health and economic harms. An accurate and validated transmission model for T. solium would serve as an important new tool for control and elimination, as it would allow for comparison of available intervention strategies, and prioritization of the most effective strategies for control and elimination efforts. Methods We developed a spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM) for T. solium (“CystiAgent”) that differs from prior T. solium models by including a spatial framework and behavioral parameters such as pig roaming, open human defecation, and human travel. In this article, we introduce the structure and function of the model, describe the data sources used to parameterize the model, and apply sensitivity analyses (Latin hypercube sampling–partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC)) to evaluate model parameters. Results LHS-PRCC analysis of CystiAgent found that the parameters with the greatest impact on model uncertainty were the roaming range of pigs, the infectious duration of human taeniasis, use of latrines, and the set of “tuning” parameters defining the probabilities of infection in humans and pigs given exposure to T. solium. Conclusions CystiAgent is a novel ABM that has the ability to model spatial and behavioral features of T. solium transmission not available in other models. There is a small set of impactful model parameters that contribute uncertainty to the model and may impact the accuracy of model projections. Field and laboratory studies to better understand these key components of transmission may help reduce uncertainty, while current applications of CystiAgent may consider calibration of these parameters to improve model performance. These results will ultimately allow for improved interpretation of model validation results, and usage of the model to compare available control and elimination strategies for T. solium .

scholarly journals Identifying Synergistic Interventions to Address COVID-19 Using a Large Scale Agent-Based Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjiang Li ◽  
Philippe J. Giabbanelli
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Remote Work ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Small Set ◽  
Factorial Design Of Experiments ◽  
The Individual

AbstractThere is a range of public health tools and interventions to address the global pandemic of COVID-19. Although it is essential for public health efforts to comprehensively identify which interventions have the largest impact on preventing new cases, most of the modeling studies that support such decision-making efforts have only considered a very small set of interventions. In addition, previous studies predominantly considered interventions as independent or examined a single scenario in which every possible intervention was applied. Reality has been more nuanced, as a subset of all possible interventions may be in effect for a given time period, in a given place. In this paper, we use cloud-based simulations and a previously published Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 (Covasim) to measure the individual and interacting contribution of interventions on reducing new infections in the US over 6 months. Simulated interventions include face masks, working remotely, stay-at-home orders, testing, contact tracing, and quarantining. Through a factorial design of experiments, we find that mask wearing together with transitioning to remote work/schooling has the largest impact. Having sufficient capacity to immediately and effectively perform contact tracing has a smaller contribution, primarily via interacting effects.

scholarly journals Real-time Analysis of City Scale Transportation Networks in New Orleans Metropolitan Area using an Agent Based Model Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 271 ◽  
pp. 06007
Author(s):  
Millard McElwee ◽  
Bingyu Zhao ◽  
Kenichi Soga
Keyword(s):  
New Orleans ◽  
Real Time ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transportation Networks ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Real Time Analysis

The primary focus of this research is to develop and implement an agent-based model (ABM) to analyze the New Orleans Metropolitan transportation network near real-time. ABMs have grown in popularity because of their ability to analyze multifaceted community scale resilience with hundreds of thousands of links and millions of agents. Road closures and reduction in capacities are examples of influences on the weights or removal of edges which can affect the travel time, speed, and route of agents in the transportation model. Recent advances in high-performance computing (HPC) have made modeling networks on the city scale much less computationally intensive. We introduce an open-source ABM which utilizes parallel distributed computing to enable faster convergence to large scale problems. We simulate 50,000 agents on the entire southeastern Louisiana road network and part of Mississippi as well. This demonstrates the capability to simulate both city and regional scale transportation networks near real time.

Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Meluso ◽  
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Keyword(s):  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
System Level ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Bias Estimation ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems

Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) affect system evolution, yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Results from interviews with expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers “game the system” by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model (ABM) simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that system-level estimate accuracy and uncertainty depend on subsystem behavior and are not significantly affected by systems engineers' “gaming” strategy.

Continuum versus discrete model: a comparison for multicellular tumour spheroids

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1843) ◽  
pp. 1443-1464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gernot Schaller ◽  
Michael Meyer-Hermann
Keyword(s):  
Growth Curves ◽  
Cell Number ◽  
Nutrient Concentrations ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Pde Model ◽  
Viable Cells ◽  
Tumour Spheroids

We study multicellular tumour spheroids with a continuum model based on partial differential equations (PDEs). The model includes viable and necrotic cell densities, as well as oxygen and glucose concentrations. Viable cells consume nutrients and become necrotic below critical nutrient concentrations. Proliferation of viable cells is contact-inhibited if the total cellular density locally exceeds volume carrying capacity. The model is discussed under the assumption of spherical symmetry. Unknown model parameters are determined by simultaneously fitting the cell number to several experimental growth curves for different nutrient concentrations. The outcome of the PDE model is compared with an analogous off-lattice agent-based model for tumour growth. It turns out that the numerically more efficient PDE model suffices to explain the macroscopic growth data. As in the agent-based model, we find that the experimental growth curves are only reproduced when a necrotic core develops. However, evaluation of morphometric properties yields differences between the models and the experiment.

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