The Second Wave Storm-Surges Across New York City

2021 ◽  
pp. 39-55
Author(s):  
Deborah Wallace ◽  
Rodrick Wallace
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Second Wave

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (45) ◽  
pp. 11861-11866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra J. Garner ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
Robert E. Kopp ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
York City ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Tidal Level

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.

scholarly journals Data-Driven Spatial Modeling for Quantifying Networkwide Resilience in the Aftermath of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy

2017 ◽  
Vol 2604 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Zhu ◽  
Kun Xie ◽  
Kaan Ozbay ◽  
Fan Zuo ◽  
Hong Yang
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Spatial Correlation ◽  
York City ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Infrastructure Resilience

In recent years, the New York City metropolitan area was hit by two major hurricanes, Irene and Sandy. These extreme weather events disrupted and devastated the transportation infrastructure, including road and subway networks. As an extension of the authors’ recent research on this topic, this study explored the spatial patterns of infrastructure resilience in New York City with the use of taxi and subway ridership data. Neighborhood tabulation areas were used as the units of analysis. The recovery curve of each neighborhood tabulation area was modeled with the logistic function to quantify the resilience of road and subway systems. Moran's I tests confirmed the spatial correlation of recovery patterns for taxi and subway ridership. To account for this spatial correlation, citywide spatial models were estimated and found to outperform linear models. Factors such as the percentage of area influenced by storm surges, the distance to the coast, and the average elevation are found to affect the infrastructure resilience. The findings in this study provide insights into the vulnerability of transportation networks and can be used for more efficient emergency planning and management.

New York City Storm Surges: Climatology and an Analysis of the Wind and Cyclone Evolution

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Katherine Rojowsky ◽  
Frank Buonaito
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
York City ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Storm Tide ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Cyclone Tracking ◽  
Flooding Events

Abstract A climatological description (“climatology”) of storm surges and actual flooding (storm tide) events from 1959 to 2007 is presented for the New York City (NYC) harbor. The prevailing meteorological conditions associated with these surges are also highlighted. Two surge thresholds of 0.6–1.0 m and >1.0 m were used at the Battery, New York (south side of Manhattan in NYC), to identify minor and moderate events, respectively. The minor-surge threshold combined with a tide at or above mean high water (MHW) favors a coastal flood advisory for NYC, and the moderate surge above MHW leads to a coastal flood warning. The number of minor surges has decreased gradually during the last several decades at NYC while the number of minor (storm tide) flooding events has increased slightly given the gradual rise in sea level. There were no moderate flooding events at the Battery from 1997 to 2007, which is the quietest period during the last 50 yr. However, if sea level rises 12–50 cm during the next century, the number of moderate flooding events is likely to increase exponentially. Using cyclone tracking and compositing of the NCEP global reanalysis (before 1979) and regional reanalysis (after 1978) data, the mean synoptic evolution was obtained for the NYC surge events. There are a variety of storm tracks associated with minor surges, whereas moderate surges favor a cyclone tracking northward along the East Coast. The average surface winds at NYC veer from northwesterly at 48 h before the time of maximum surge to a persistent period of east-northeasterlies beginning about 24 h before the surge. There is a relatively large variance in wind directions and speeds around the time of maximum surge, thus suggesting the importance of other factors (fetch, storm duration and track, etc.).

scholarly journals Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (41) ◽  
pp. 12610-12615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra J. Reed ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
Benjamin P. Horton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
York City ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

Cinephilia in Ruins

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jocelyn Szczepaniak-Gillece
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
York City ◽  
Upward Mobility ◽  
Cultural Elite ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The City ◽  
Second Wave

Chapter 4 considers the second wave of cinephilia and the art house theater boom particularly in New York City alongside the emergence of underground cinemas intended for the cultural elite (1960–1970). The art house is discussed alongside Robert Moses’s urban development plans for the city, which exemplifies its attempts to sell an illusion of transportation and class and cultural upward mobility. Both kinds of theaters represented versions of cinematic ruins: the art house theater for its debt to luxurious capital, and the underground cinema, like Aldo Tambellini’s Black Gate, for its fallout shelter-like environment. Both are also examples of the kinds of “serious” moviegoing ultimately made possible by Schlanger and neutralization.

Impact of the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic on Healthcare Workers at a Tertiary Care Center in New York City

2013 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 825-831 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nahid Bhadelia ◽  
Rajiv Sonti ◽  
Jennifer Wright McCarthy ◽  
Jaclyn Vorenkamp ◽  
Haomiao Jia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Care Center ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Tertiary Care Center ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Second Wave

Background and Objective.Assessing the impact of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) on healthcare workers (HCWs) is important for pandemic planning.Methods.We retrospectively analyzed employee health records of HCWs at a tertiary care center in New York City with influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and confirmed influenza from March 31, 2009, to February 28, 2010. We evaluated HCWs' clinical presentations during the first and second wave of the pandemic, staff absenteeism, exposures among HCWs, and association between high-risk occupational exposures to respiratory secretions and infection.Results.During the pandemic, 40% (141/352) of HCWs with ILI tested positive for influenza, representing a 1% attack rate among our 13,066 employees. HCWs with influenza were more likely to have fever, cough, and tachycardia. When compared with the second wave, cases in the first wave were sicker and at higher risk of exposure to patients' respiratory secretions (P = .049). HCWs with ILI- with and without confirmed influenza-missed on average 4.7 and 2.7 work days, respectively (P = .001). Among HCWs asked about working while ill, 65% (153/235) reported they did so (mean, 2 days).Conclusions.HCWs in the first wave had more severe ILI than those in the second wave and were more likely to be exposed to patients' respiratory secretions. HCWs with ILI often worked while ill. Timely strategies to educate and support HCWs were critical to managing this population during the pandemic.

Comparing the clinical severity of the first versus second wave of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) in a New York City pediatric healthcare facility

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 375-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Scott Baird ◽  
Amanda Buet ◽  
Saul R. Hymes ◽  
Thyyar M. Ravindranath ◽  
Sheemon Zackai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Healthcare Facility ◽  
Clinical Severity ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Pediatric Healthcare ◽  
Second Wave

scholarly journals How to Reduce the Transmission Risk of COVID-19 More Effectively in New York City: An Age-Structured Model Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miaolei Li ◽  
Jian Zu ◽  
Zongfang Li ◽  
Mingwang Shen ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Background: In face of the continuing worldwide COVID-19 epidemic, how to reduce the transmission risk of COVID-19 more effectively is still a major public health challenge that needs to be addressed urgently.Objective: This study aimed to develop an age-structured compartment model to evaluate the impact of all diagnosed and all hospitalized on the epidemic trend of COVID-19, and explore innovative and effective releasing strategies for different age groups to prevent the second wave of COVID-19.Methods: Based on three types of COVID-19 data in New York City (NYC), we calibrated the model and estimated the unknown parameters using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.Results: Compared with the current practice in NYC, we estimated that if all infected people were diagnosed from March 26, April 5 to April 15, 2020, respectively, then the number of new infections on April 22 was reduced by 98.02, 93.88, and 74.08%. If all confirmed cases were hospitalized from March 26, April 5, and April 15, 2020, respectively, then as of June 7, 2020, the total number of deaths in NYC was reduced by 67.24, 63.43, and 51.79%. When only the 0–17 age group in NYC was released from June 8, if the contact rate in this age group remained below 61% of the pre-pandemic level, then a second wave of COVID-19 could be prevented in NYC. When both the 0–17 and 18–44 age groups in NYC were released from June 8, if the contact rates in these two age groups maintained below 36% of the pre-pandemic level, then a second wave of COVID-19 could be prevented in NYC.Conclusions: If all infected people were diagnosed in time, the daily number of new infections could be significantly reduced in NYC. If all confirmed cases were hospitalized in time, the total number of deaths could be significantly reduced in NYC. Keeping a social distance and relaxing lockdown restrictions for people between the ages of 0 and 44 could not lead to a second wave of COVID-19 in NYC.

scholarly journals Declines and peaks in NO<sub>2</sub> pollution during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the New York metropolitan area

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Tzortziou ◽  
Charlotte Frances Kwong ◽  
Daniel Goldberg ◽  
Luke Schiferl ◽  
Róisín Commane ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
York City ◽  
Nox Emissions ◽  
York Metropolitan Area ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pandemic Wave ◽  
No2 Pollution

Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic created an extreme natural experiment in which sudden changes in human behavior and economic activity resulted in significant declines in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, immediately after strict lockdowns were imposed. Here we examined the impact of multiple waves and response phases of the pandemic on nitrogen dioxide (NO2) dynamics and the role of meteorology in shaping relative contributions from different emission sectors to NO2 pollution in post-pandemic New York City. Long term (> 3.5 years), high frequency measurements from a network of ground-based Pandora spectrometers were combined with TROPOMI satellite retrievals, meteorological data, mobility trends, and atmospheric transport model simulations to quantify changes in NO2 across the New York metropolitan area. The stringent lockdown measures after the first pandemic wave resulted in a decline in top-down NOx emissions by approx. 30 % on top of long-term trends, in agreement with sector-specific changes in NOx emissions. Ground-based measurements showed a sudden drop in total column NO2 in spring 2020, by up to 36 % in Manhattan and 19–29 % in Queens, New Jersey and Connecticut, and a clear weakening (by 16 %) of the typical weekly NO2 cycle. Extending our analysis to more than a year after the initial lockdown captured a gradual recovery in NO2 across the NY/NJ/CT tri-state area in summer and fall 2020, as social restrictions eased, followed by a second decline in NO2 coincident with the second wave of the pandemic and resurgence of lockdown measures in winter 2021. Meteorology was not found to have a strong NO2 biasing effect in New York City after the first pandemic wave. Winds, however, were favorable for low NO2 conditions in Manhattan during the second wave of the pandemic, resulting in larger column NO2 declines than expected based on changes in transportation emissions alone. Meteorology played a key role in shaping the relative contributions from different emission sectors to NO2 pollution in the city, with low-speed (< 5 ms−1) SW-SE winds enhancing contributions from the high-emitting power-generation sector in NJ and Queens and driving particularly high NO2 pollution episodes in Manhattan, even during – and despite – the stringent early lockdowns. These results have important implications for air quality management in New York City, and highlight the value of high resolution NO2 measurements in assessing the effects of rapid meteorological changes on air quality conditions and the effectiveness of sector-specific NOx emission control strategies.

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