Actuarial Methods

2011 ◽  
pp. 7-10
Author(s):  
Vassiliy Simchera
Keyword(s):  
Actuarial Methods

scholarly journals Epidemic risk and insurance coverage

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 286-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claude Lefèvre ◽  
Philippe Picard ◽  
Matthieu Simon
Keyword(s):  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Insurance Plan ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Actuarial Methods ◽  
Premium Calculation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Epidemic Risk ◽  
Cost Components

AbstractIn this paper we aim to apply simple actuarial methods to build an insurance plan protecting against an epidemic risk in a population. The studied model is an extended SIR epidemic in which the removal and infection rates may depend on the number of registered removals. The costs due to the epidemic are measured through the expected epidemic size and infectivity time. The premiums received during the epidemic outbreak are measured through the expected susceptibility time. Using martingale arguments, a method by recursion is developed to calculate the cost components and the corresponding premium levels in this extended epidemic model. Some numerical examples illustrate the effect of removals and the premium calculation in an insurance plan.

scholarly journals Prevention of refractoriness and HLA-alloimmunization using filtered blood products

Blood ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 71 (5) ◽  
pp. 1402-1407 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Sniecinski ◽  
MR O'Donnell ◽  
B Nowicki ◽  
LR Hill
Keyword(s):  
De Novo ◽  
Solid Phase ◽  
Hematologic Malignancy ◽  
Hla Antigens ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Red Cell ◽  
Blood Products ◽  
Leukocyte Depletion ◽  
Actuarial Methods ◽  
The Cost

Depletion of leukocytes from all blood products may decrease the incidence of alloimmunization to HLA antigens present on the white cells and thus delay the onset of refractoriness to random donor platelet support. In order to test this hypothesis, 54 patients with hematologic malignancy or marrow aplasia were entered on a prospective randomized trial using cotton-wool filtration as a method of leukocyte depletion of red cell and platelet concentrates. Forty patients were considered evaluable; 20 patients received filtered products and 20 patients in the control group received standard unfiltered products. The filter was 99% efficient in removal of leukocytes (average number of WBC/platelet product, 6 X 10(6)). Platelet loss by this technique was 8%. Alloimmunization was assessed by detection of de novo formed lymphocytotoxic and platelet specific antibodies by microcytotoxicity test, Staph A protein radioimmunoassay, and solid phase red cell adherence test. In the group receiving filtered products, three of 20 (15%) patients developed lymphocytotoxic antibodies while ten of 20 (50%) patients in the control group developed cytotoxic antibodies (P = .01 by actuarial methods). Platelet antibodies were detected in seven of ten alloimmunized patients in the control group and three of three patients in the study group. Clinical evidence of refractoriness was seen in three of 20 patients in the filtered group and ten of 20 in the control group (P = .01 by actuarial methods). The cost of filtration was a fraction of the cost of a plateletpheresis product. Filtration appears to be an effective and economical method for reducing alloimmunization and clinical refractoriness to random donor platelets in patient receiving long-term transfusion support.

A comparison of actuarial methods for identifying repetitively violent patients with mental illnesses.

1996 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Gardner ◽  
Charles W. Lidz ◽  
Edward P. Mulvey ◽  
Esther C. Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Mental Illnesses ◽  
Actuarial Methods

Data-Driven vs Consensus Diagnosis of MCI: Enhanced Sensitivity for Detection of Clinical, Biomarker, and Neuropathologic Outcomes

Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 10.1212/WNL.0000000000012600
Author(s):  
Emily C. Edmonds ◽  
Denis S. Smirnov ◽  
Kelsey R. Thomas ◽  
Lisa V. Graves ◽  
Katherine J. Bangen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Driven ◽  
Cognitive Profiles ◽  
Cognitively Normal ◽  
Enhanced Sensitivity ◽  
Amnestic Mci ◽  
Actuarial Methods ◽  
Clinical Biomarker ◽  
The University ◽  
Consensus Diagnosis

Objective:Given prior work demonstrating that mild cognitive impairment (MCI) can be empirically differentiated into meaningful cognitive subtypes, we applied actuarial methods to comprehensive neuropsychological data from the University of California San Diego (UCSD) Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center (ADRC) in order to identify cognitive subgroups within nondemented ADRC participants, and to examine cognitive, biomarker, and neuropathological trajectories.Methods:Cluster analysis was performed on baseline neuropsychological data (n=738; mean age=71.8). Survival analysis examined progression to dementia (mean follow-up=5.9 years). CSF AD biomarker status and neuropathological findings at follow-up were examined in a subset with available data.Results:Five clusters were identified: “optimal” cognitively normal (CN; n=130) with above-average cognition, “typical” CN (n=204) with average cognition, non-amnestic MCI (naMCI; n=104), amnestic MCI (aMCI; n=216), and mixed MCI (mMCI; n=84). Progression to dementia differed across MCI subtypes (mMCI>aMCI>naMCI), with the mMCI group demonstrating the highest rate of CSF biomarker positivity and AD pathology at autopsy. Actuarial methods classified 29.5% more of the sample with MCI and outperformed consensus diagnoses in capturing those who had abnormal biomarkers, progressed to dementia, or had AD pathology at autopsy.Conclusions:We identified subtypes of MCI and CN with differing cognitive profiles, clinical outcomes, CSF AD biomarkers, and neuropathological findings over more than 10 years of follow-up. Results demonstrate that actuarial methods produce reliable cognitive phenotypes, with data from a subset suggesting unique biological and neuropathological signatures. Findings indicate that data-driven algorithms enhance diagnostic sensitivity relative to consensus diagnosis for identifying older adults at risk for cognitive decline.

Some Changes in Actuarial Methods Arising from the Use of a Small Computer in a Medium-Sized Office

1965 ◽  
Vol 91 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. T. L. Barnard
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Systems ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Small Computer ◽  
Manual Work ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Actuarial Methods ◽  
Single Medium

Many assurance offices are in the early stages of changing to a computer for the mechanization of their business. Each office has its own problems which frequently arise from its historical record of amalgamations, changes in management policy, etc.2. Probably the biggest problem for the office is the standardization of its data into a form which can be read by the computer. When this has been accomplished the small-size computer can readily take over practically all the work which has already been mechanized, usually giving a better product in a shorter time and with reduction in manual work. There is also a simplification of diverse mechanical systems into a single medium.

Outcomes of patients older than 60 years with acute lymphoblastic leukemia: Survey from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program.

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 6532-6532
Author(s):  
Jae Hong Park ◽  
Sean Devlin ◽  
Martin S. Tallman ◽  
Dan Douer
Keyword(s):  
Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia ◽  
Lymphoblastic Leukemia ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Early Death ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Outcome Information ◽  
Actuarial Methods ◽  
Poor Tolerance

6532 Background: The cure rate of pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) has increased over the last 4 decades to above 80%, compared to a much smaller improvement in adults aged < 60 years. However, outcome information on older ALL patients (age ≥ 60 years) is limited. Only a few clinical trials include the older patients, apply the same regimens developed for adults of all ages, and report a very poor outcome with no improvement over time. We therefore conducted a population-based survey of older ALL patients focusing on early death (ED) rates and changes in outcome over the last 30 years. Methods: Data from 9 population-based cancer registries that participate in the National Cancer Institute’s SEERprogram were used to identify patients aged 60 or older with a diagnosis of ALL. Survival rates at 1, 6, 12 and 24 months were estimated using actuarial methods for 4 calendar periods: 1980-1985, 1986-1992, 1993-1999, and 2000-2006. ED was defined as death occurring within one month of ALL diagnosis. Results: A total of 1066 ALL patients were identified. The ED rate significantly improved over the four study time periods from 20.2% in 1980-1985 to 13.2% in 2000-2006 (p=0.03). The overall survival (OS) at 6 months improved from 32.8% in 1980-1985 to 45.3% in 2000-2006, but at 24 months, only a modest difference in OS was noted across the time period (13.1% in 1980-85 vs. 17.5% in 2000-06). The median survival increased from 3 months to 6 months from the period 1980-1999 to 2000-2006. Conclusions: Although the long-term OS for patients aged 60 and over remains poor, there has been a slight improvement in early mortality and median OS from 1980s to the early 21st century. While the progress in reducing ED and increasing survival at 6 months is encouraging, and may be reflecting better supportive care measures, the limited improvement indicates poor tolerance and lack of efficacy of the toxic, long and complex chemotherapy regimens designed for younger adults. Therefore, future studies should be designed specifically for older ALL patients, focusing on novel, effective, but less toxic therapies, to further improve the short-term OS seen in the past decades and possibly a better overall outcome.

SEER study of breast cancer specific mortality (BCSM) in patients with lobular tumors treated based on recurrence score results.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 11568-11568
Author(s):  
Frederick L. Baehner ◽  
Steven Shak ◽  
Dave P. Miller ◽  
Valentina I. Petkov
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Tumor Size ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Recurrence Score ◽  
Tumor Grade ◽  
Nodal Status ◽  
Large Sample Size ◽  
Lobular Breast Cancer ◽  
Gene Assay ◽  
Actuarial Methods

11568 Background: Linking the 21-gene assay RS result to the SEER Registries demonstrated very low 5-y BCSM with low RS and high 5-y BCSM with high RS across subgroups, such as nodal status, age, tumor size and grade (npj Breast Cancer 2016). Given the large sample size and interest in outcomes as a function of tumor characteristics, we characterized the relationship between RS results and BCSM in patients reported by SEER with lobular morphology. Methods: Patients with RS and lobular morphology based on the registry ICD-O-3 code 8520 were eligible if node negative (N0) or node positive up to 3 positive nodes (N+mic,1-3), HR+, HER2- negative, no prior malignancy, and diagnosed between Jan 2004 and Dec 2012. No information in SEER is available regarding lobulars, ie., trabecular, alveolar, solid and pleomorphic. 5-y BCSM was estimated using actuarial methods. Results: There were 6,075 eligible patients reported with lobular morphology (11% of cases). Median age was 59 years; 88%/12% were N0/N+; 31%/62%/7% grade 1/2/3; 61%/39% ≤2 cm/>2 cm. Median follow-up was 44 months. A minority (8%) had RS >25. Chemotherapy (CT) use and BCSM increased with increasing RS. In multivariable analysis in N0 disease, continuous RS result and tumor size predicted BCSM (p=0.003 and p=0.04, respectively), whereas age and tumor grade were non-significant. In multivariable analysis in N+ disease, continuous RS result alone predicted BCSM (p=0.002). Conclusions: In these analyses the prognosis of patients with lobular breast cancer treated based on RS results depends on both nodal status and the RS result. The 5-y BCSM for lobular breast cancer is excellent with RS of 25 or less, and increases for RS >25. [Table: see text]

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