Personnel Policies, Long Term Unemployment and Growth. An Evolutionary Model

Author(s):  
Gérard Ballot ◽  
Marie-Pierre Merlateau ◽  
Dominique Meurs
2012 ◽  
Vol 134 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Arendt ◽  
Daniel A. McAdams ◽  
Richard J. Malak

The potential for engineering technology to evolve over time can be a critical consideration in design decisions that involve long-term commitments. Investments in manufacturing equipment, contractual relationships, and other factors can make it difficult for engineering firms to backtrack once they have chosen one technology over others. Although engineering technologies tend to improve in performance over time, competing technologies can evolve at different rates and details about how a technology might evolve are generally uncertain. In this article we present a general framework for modeling and making decisions about evolving technologies under uncertainty. In this research, the evolution of technology performance is modeled as an S-curve; the performance evolves slowly at first, quickly during heavy research and development effort, and slowly again as the performance approaches its limits. We extend the existing single-attribute S-curve model to the case of technologies with multiple performance attributes. By combining an S-curve evolutionary model for each attribute with a Pareto frontier representation of the optimal implementations of a technology at a particular point in time, we can project how the Pareto frontier will move over time as a technology evolves. Designer uncertainty about the precise shape of the S-curve model is considered through a Monte Carlo simulation of the evolutionary process. To demonstrate how designers can apply the framework, we consider the scenario of a green power generation company deciding between competing wind turbine technologies. Wind turbines, like many other technologies, are currently evolving as research and development efforts improve performance. The engineering example demonstrates how the multi-attribute technology evolution modeling technique provides designers with greater insight into critical uncertainties present in long-term decision problems.


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1052-1070
Author(s):  
Bing Liu ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Le Song ◽  
Jingna Liu

In this paper, we investigate the effects of pollution on the body size of prey about a predator–prey evolutionary model with a continuous phenotypic trait in a pulsed pollution discharge environment. Firstly, an eco-evolutionary predator–prey model incorporating the rapid evolution is formulated to investigate the effects of rapid evolution on the population density and the body size of prey by applying the quantitative trait evolutionary theory. The results show that rapid evolution can increase the density of prey and avoid population extinction, and with the worsening of pollution, the evolutionary traits becomes smaller gradually. Next, by employing the adaptive dynamic theory, a long-term evolutionary model is formulated to evaluate the effects of long-term evolution on the population dynamics and the effects of pollution on the body size of prey. The invasion fitness function is given, which reflects whether the mutant can invade successfully or not. Considering the trade-off between the intrinsic growth rate and the evolutionary trait, the critical function analysis method is used to investigate the dynamics of such slow evolutionary system. The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulations conclude that pollution affects the evolutionary traits and evolutionary dynamics. The worsening of the pollution leads to a smaller body size of prey due to natural selection, while the opposite is more likely to generate evolutionary branching.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joachim Kaldasch

Moore suggested an exponential growth of the number of transistors in integrated electronic circuits. In this paper, Moore’s law is derived from a preferential growth model of successive production technology generations. The theory suggests that products manufactured with a new production technology generating lower costs per unit have a competitive advantage on the market. Therefore, previous technology generations are replaced according to a Fisher-Pry law. Discussed is the case that a production technology is governed by a cost relevant characteristic. If this characteristic is bounded by a technological or physical boundary, the presented evolutionary model predicts an asymptotic approach to this limit. The model discusses the wafer size evolution and the long term evolution of Moore’s law for the case of a physical boundary of the lithographic production technology. It predicts that the miniaturization process of electronic devices will slow down considerably in the next two decades.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Josephides ◽  
Peter S. Swain

Competition for substrates is a ubiquitous selection pressure faced by microbes, yet intracellular trade-offs can prevent cells from metabolizing every type of available substrate. Adaptive evolution is constrained by these trade-offs, but their consequences for the repeatability and predictability of evolution are unclear. Here we develop an eco-evolutionary model with a metabolic trade-off to generate networks of mutational paths in microbial communities and show that these networks have descriptive and predictive information about the evolving communities. We find that long-term outcomes, including community collapse, diversity, and cycling, have characteristic evolutionary dynamics that determine the entropy, or repeatability, of mutational paths. Although reliable prediction of evolutionary outcomes from environmental conditions is difficult, graph-theoretic properties of the mutational networks enable accurate prediction even from incomplete observations. In conclusion, we present a novel methodology for analyzing adaptive evolution and report that the dynamics of adaptation are a key variable for predictive success.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Deffner ◽  
Anne Kandler

AbstractIndividuals often respond phenotypically to environmental challenges by innovating and adopting novel behavioral variants. Behavioral (or ‘cultural’) variants are defined here as alternative ways to solve adaptive problems, such as finding food or building shelter. In unpredictable environments, individuals must both be able to adapt to current conditions but also to cope with potential changes in these conditions, they must “hedge their evolutionary bets” against the variability of the environment. Here, we loosely apply this idea to the context of behavioral adaptation and develop an evolutionary model, where cultural variants differ in their level of generality, i.e. the range of environmental conditions in which they provide fitness benefits: generalist variants are characterized by large ranges, specialist variants by small ranges. We use a Moran model (with additional learning opportunities) and assume that each individual’s propensity for innovation is genetically determined, while the characteristics of cultural variants can be modified through processes of individual and social learning. Our model demonstrates that flexibly adjusting the level of generality allows individuals to navigate the trade-off between fast and reliable initial adaptation and the potential for long-term improvements. In situations with many (social or individual) learning opportunities, no adjustment of the innovation rate, i.e. the propensity to learn individually, is required to adapt to changed environmental conditions: fast adaptation is guaranteed by solely adjusting the level of generality of the cultural variants. Few learning opportunities, however, require both processes, innovation and trait generality, to work hand in hand. To explore the effects of different modes of innovation, we contrast independent invention and modification and show that relying largely on modifications improves both short-term and long-term adaptation. Further, inaccuracies in social learning provide another source of variant variation that facilitates adaptation after an environmental change. However, unfaithful learning is detrimental to long-term levels of adaptation. Our results demonstrate that the characteristics of cultural variants themselves can play a major role in the adaptation process and influence the evolution of learning strategies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-68
Author(s):  
Tanthawi Ishak ◽  
Muhammad Muhammad ◽  
Nurmayana Nurmayana

The Human Resources Development Personnel Agency (BKPSDM) performs an important role in improving the performance of qualified employees through education and training programs that are prepared to answer the needs of public demands. The benefits of training for employees are not only for BKPSDM work productivity but also for ASN personnel after gaining training experience both in the transfer of knowledge, behavior, attitudes, and career duties. The obstacles faced by the BKPSDM of Lhokseumawe City are basically external obstacles, namely the reduction of irrelevant budgets as proposed to carry out the BKPSDM program and the unavailability of building facilities such as halls in carrying out education and training for employees within the local government. Meanwhile, internal obstacles have so far not been found and have not become the main problem to be criticized. Basically, BKPSDM Lhokseumawe City has the task of implementing administrative affairs, compiling annual, medium-term, and long-term work programs. In addition, he is also responsible for the formulation of technical personnel policies, the implementation of education and training for civil servants, as well as administrative services for the smooth implementation of education and training.


1995 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Silverberg ◽  
Bart Verspagen

1994 ◽  
Vol 164 (S23) ◽  
pp. 51-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luc Ciompi

The integrative concept of ‘affect logic’ is based on a hypothesis concerning the laws of interaction between emotion and cognition. ”Affects“ are defined as global psychophysiological states which determine the prevailing functional ‘logic’, i.e. the specific ways in which cognitive elements are selected and linked together. This leads to an integrative psychosocio-biological evolutionary model of schizophrenia, in which a specific affective–cognitive vulnerability is built up in a first phase, through escalating interactions between unfavourable genetic–biological and psychosocial influences. In a second phase, the mental system is decompensated by psychosocial or biological stressors which induce psychosis. The great variability in long-term course (third phase) is conditioned by the complex interplay of many biological and psychosocial variables. The organising functions of affects are evident in schizophrenic core phenomena such as ambivalence, incoherence, and emotional flattening. This proposed model has numerous practical and theoretical implications.


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