Uncertain Technology Evolution and Decision Making in Design

2012 ◽  
Vol 134 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Arendt ◽  
Daniel A. McAdams ◽  
Richard J. Malak
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
Pareto Frontier ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Development Effort ◽  
Technology Evolution ◽  
Curve Model ◽  
S Curve ◽  
Over Time

The potential for engineering technology to evolve over time can be a critical consideration in design decisions that involve long-term commitments. Investments in manufacturing equipment, contractual relationships, and other factors can make it difficult for engineering firms to backtrack once they have chosen one technology over others. Although engineering technologies tend to improve in performance over time, competing technologies can evolve at different rates and details about how a technology might evolve are generally uncertain. In this article we present a general framework for modeling and making decisions about evolving technologies under uncertainty. In this research, the evolution of technology performance is modeled as an S-curve; the performance evolves slowly at first, quickly during heavy research and development effort, and slowly again as the performance approaches its limits. We extend the existing single-attribute S-curve model to the case of technologies with multiple performance attributes. By combining an S-curve evolutionary model for each attribute with a Pareto frontier representation of the optimal implementations of a technology at a particular point in time, we can project how the Pareto frontier will move over time as a technology evolves. Designer uncertainty about the precise shape of the S-curve model is considered through a Monte Carlo simulation of the evolutionary process. To demonstrate how designers can apply the framework, we consider the scenario of a green power generation company deciding between competing wind turbine technologies. Wind turbines, like many other technologies, are currently evolving as research and development efforts improve performance. The engineering example demonstrates how the multi-attribute technology evolution modeling technique provides designers with greater insight into critical uncertainties present in long-term decision problems.

Technology Evolution Modeling and Decision Making Under Uncertainty

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Arendt ◽  
Daniel A. McAdams ◽  
Richard J. Malak
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Modeling Technique ◽  
Technology Evolution ◽  
The Future ◽  
S Curve ◽  
Evolution Modeling

Design is an uncertain human activity involving decisions with uncertain outcomes. Sources of uncertainty in product design include uncertainty in modeling methods, market preferences, and performance levels of subsystem technologies, among many others. The performance of a technology evolves over time, typically exhibiting improving performance. As the performance of a technology in the future is uncertain, quantifying the evolution of these technologies poses a challenge in making long-term design decisions. Here, we focus on how to make decisions using formal models of technology evolution. The scenario of a wind turbine energy company deciding which technology to invest in demonstrates a new technology evolution modeling technique and decision making method. The design of wind turbine arrays is a complex problem involving decisions such as location and turbine model selection. Wind turbines, like many other technologies, are currently evolving as the research and development efforts push the performance limits. In this research, the development of technology performance is modeled as an S-curve; slowly at first, quickly during heavy research and development effort, and slowly again as the performance approaches its limits. The S-curve model typically represents the evolution of just one performance attribute, but designers generally deal with problems involving multiple important attributes. Pareto frontiers representing the set of optimal solutions that the decision maker can select from at any point in time allow for modeling the evolution of technologies with multiple attributes. As the performance of a technology develops, the Pareto frontier shifts to a new location. The assumed S-curve form of technology development allows the designer to apply the uncertainty of technology development directly to the S-curve evolution model rather than applying the uncertainty to the future performance, giving a more focused application of uncertainty in the problem. The multi-attribute technology evolution modeling technique applied in decision-making gives designers greater insight when making long-term decisions involving technologies that evolve.

Studying Artificial Life Using a Simple, General Cellular Model

1994 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Sipper
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Life ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Cellular Model ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Cellular Automata Model ◽  
Adaptive Landscapes ◽  
Competition For Space ◽  
Multicellular Organisms ◽  
Over Time

Some of the major outstanding problems in biology are related to issues of emergence and evolution. These include: (a) how populations of organisms traverse their adaptive landscapes; (b) what the relation between adaptedness and fitness is; and (c) the formation of multicellular organisms from basic units or cells. In this article we study these issues using a model that is both general and simple. The system, derived from the CA (cellular automata) model, consists of a two-dimensional grid of interacting organisms that may evolve over time. We first present designed multicellular organisms that display several interesting behaviors, including reproduction, growth, and mobility. We then turn our attention to evolution in various environments, including an environment in which competition for space occurs, an IPD (Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma) environment, an environment of spatial niches, and an environment of temporal niches. One of the advantages of artificial life (AL) models is the opportunities they offer in performing in-depth studies of the evolutionary process. This is accomplished in our case by observing not only phenotypic effects but also such measures as fitness, operability, energy and the genescape. Our work sheds light on the problems raised above, and offers a possible path toward the long-term, two-fold goal of ALife research: (a) increasing our understanding of biology, and (b) enhancing our understanding of artificial models, thereby providing us with the ability to improve their performance.

scholarly journals Phenotypic and molecular evolution across 10,000 generations in laboratory budding yeast populations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milo S. Johnson ◽  
Shreyas Gopalakrishnan ◽  
Juhee Goyal ◽  
Megan E. Dillingham ◽  
Christopher W. Bakerlee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evolution ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Mutation Rates ◽  
Historical Contingency ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

AbstractLaboratory experimental evolution provides a window into the details of the evolutionary process. To investigate the consequences of long-term adaptation, we evolved 205 S. cerevisiae populations (124 haploid and 81 diploid) for ∼10,000 generations in three environments. We measured the dynamics of fitness changes over time, finding repeatable patterns of declining adaptability. Sequencing revealed that this phenotypic adaptation is coupled with a steady accumulation of mutations, widespread genetic parallelism, and historical contingency. In contrast to long-term evolution in E. coli, we do not observe long-term coexistence or populations with highly elevated mutation rates. We find that evolution in diploid populations involves both fixation of heterozygous mutations and frequent loss-of-heterozygosity events. Together, these results help distinguish aspects of evolutionary dynamics that are likely to be general features of adaptation across many systems from those that are specific to individual organisms and environmental conditions.

scholarly journals Phenotypic and molecular evolution across 10,000 generations in laboratory budding yeast populations

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milo S Johnson ◽  
Shreyas Gopalakrishnan ◽  
Juhee Goyal ◽  
Megan E Dillingham ◽  
Christopher W Bakerlee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evolution ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Mutation Rates ◽  
Historical Contingency ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Laboratory experimental evolution provides a window into the details of the evolutionary process. To investigate the consequences of long-term adaptation, we evolved 205 Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations (124 haploid and 81 diploid) for ~10,000 generations in three environments. We measured the dynamics of fitness changes over time, finding repeatable patterns of declining adaptability. Sequencing revealed that this phenotypic adaptation is coupled with a steady accumulation of mutations, widespread genetic parallelism, and historical contingency. In contrast to long-term evolution in E. coli, we do not observe long-term coexistence or populations with highly elevated mutation rates. We find that evolution in diploid populations involves both fixation of heterozygous mutations and frequent loss-of-heterozygosity events. Together, these results help distinguish aspects of evolutionary dynamics that are likely to be general features of adaptation across many systems from those that are specific to individual organisms and environmental conditions.

Enhancing community welfare through improved water quality: a case for applying staggered pollution charges in the river Musi sub-basin of Andhra Pradesh, India

Water Policy ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 469-483
Author(s):  
Tishya Chatterjee
Keyword(s):  
Andhra Pradesh ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Pollution Prevention ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Community Acceptance ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Over Time

In conditions of severe water-pollution and dormant community acceptance of accumulating environmental damage, the regulator's role goes beyond pollution prevention and more towards remediation and solutions based on the community's long-term expectations of economic benefits from clean water. This paper suggests a method to enable these benefits to become perceptible progressively, through participatory clean-up operations, supported by staggered pollution charges. It analyses the relevant literature on pollution prevention and applies a cost-based “willingness to pay” model, using primary basin-level data of total marginal costs. It develops a replicable demand-side approach imposing charge-standard targets over time in urban-industrial basins of developing countries.

The Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of Sarbanes-Oxley Act on Composition and Characteristics of Corporate Board of Directors

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Halil Kaya ◽  
Gaurango Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Board Composition ◽  
Corporate Boards ◽  
Corporate Accountability ◽  
Corporate Board ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dual Roles ◽  
Board Characteristics ◽  
Sarbanes Oxley ◽  
Over Time

The paper examines the Sarbanes-Oxley (2002) Acts immediate impact on board composition and characteristics as well as possible reversals in its impact over time. Effects on directors age and tenure are analyzed over the 2001-06 sample period. Female participation in corporate boards is also studied in the pre-SOX and post-SOX periods. The dual roles of directors in being a member of the board as well as serving as either CEO, CFO, Chairman, Co-Chair, Founder, or Lead Director of their respective companies is also examined. We observe a short-term impact of SOX on board compositions due to changes seen in board characteristics between 2001 (pre-SOX), and 2003-05 short-term period (post-SOX). Also, we observe a reversal of board characteristics in 2006 to pre-SOX levels implying that the effects of SOX on board composition were short-lived, and needs to be monitored over time to ensure adherence to corporate accountability guidelines over the long-term.

A Downward Spiral? A Panel Study of Misinformation and Media Trust in Chile

2021 ◽  
pp. 194016122110252
Author(s):  
Sebastián Valenzuela ◽  
Daniel Halpern ◽  
Felipe Araneda
Keyword(s):  
News Media ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Downward Spiral ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Trust ◽  
People’S Attitudes ◽  
Over Time

Despite widespread concern, research on the consequences of misinformation on people's attitudes is surprisingly scant. To fill in this gap, the current study examines the long-term relationship between misinformation and trust in the news media. Based on the reinforcing spirals model, we analyzed data from a three-wave panel survey collected in Chile between 2017 and 2019. We found a weak, over-time relationship between misinformation and media skepticism. Specifically, initial beliefs on factually dubious information were negatively correlated with subsequent levels of trust in the news media. Lower trust in the media, in turn, was related over time to higher levels of misinformation. However, we found no evidence of a reverse, parallel process where media trust shielded users against misinformation, further reinforcing trust in the news media. The lack of evidence of a downward spiral suggests that the corrosive effects of misinformation on attitudes toward the news media are less serious than originally suggested. We close with a discussion of directions for future research.

scholarly journals Personality dynamics at work: The effects of form, time, and context of variability

2021 ◽  
pp. 089020702110173
Author(s):  
Nadin Beckmann ◽  
Damian P Birney ◽  
Amirali Minbashian ◽  
Jens F Beckmann
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Ability ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Limited Evidence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
State Data ◽  
The Status ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Trait Variability

The study aimed to investigate the status of within-person state variability in neuroticism and conscientiousness as individual differences constructs by exploring their (a) temporal stability, (b) cross-context consistency, (c) empirical links to selected antecedents, and (d) empirical links to longer term trait variability. Employing a sample of professionals ( N = 346) from Australian organisations, personality state data together with situation appraisals were collected using experience sampling methodology in field and repeatedly in lab-like settings. Data on personality traits, cognitive ability, and motivational mindsets were collected at baseline and after two years. Contingent (situation contingencies) and non-contingent (relative SD) state variability indices were relatively stable over time and across contexts. Only a small number of predictive effects of state variability were observed, and these differed across contexts. Cognitive ability appeared to be associated with state variability under lab-like conditions. There was limited evidence of links between short-term state and long-term trait variability, except for a small effect for neuroticism. Some evidence of positive manifold was found for non-contingent variability. Systematic efforts are required to further elucidate the complex pattern of results regarding the antecedents, correlates and outcomes of individual differences in state variability.

scholarly journals Agritourism—A Business Reality of the Moment for Romanian Rural Area’s Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6313
Author(s):  
Ramona Ciolac ◽  
Tiberiu Iancu ◽  
Ioan Brad ◽  
Tabita Adamov ◽  
Nicoleta Mateoc-Sîrb
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Distribution Channels ◽  
Scientific Paper ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tourism Potential ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Managerial Experience ◽  
Over Time

The agritourism activity can be a characteristic reality of the present, considering rural area’s sustainability, being at the same time a business reality for rural entrepreneurs and a “must have” for rural communities that have tourism potential. It is a form of tourism, through which the tourist can receive a qualitative product at a reasonable price, but also a field that can ensure sustainable development over time, being at the same time environmentally friendly. The purpose of this scientific paper is to identify the aspects that make agritourism “a possible business reality of the moment”, for Romanian rural area’s sustainability. We take into account the following areas: Bran-Moieciu area—considered “the oldest” in terms of agritourism experience, and Apuseni Mountains area, with a great inclination and potential for this activity. The study conducted for these two areas is focused on several aspects: the degree of involvement in agritourism activities, considering the number of years and managerial experience, the analysis of the types of activities/experiences offered by agritourism structures, the identification of the main reasons/motivations for the orientation towards agritourism and the manner in which this field is perceived. Aspects related to the marketing-finance part of the agritourism business are also taken into account: customers, distribution channels, financial sources, shortcomings observed by agritourism business owners and possible action directions so as to improve the activity/agritourism product. Agritourism may be “a possible business reality of the moment” for the studied areas and not only, but in the future, the entrepreneur/farmer must be constantly updated because of the changing situations that appear on the market, be able to make sustainable decisions for his/her own business, which in the future will ensure its viability and obviously its long-term profitability and development, and in the same time rural area’s sustainability.

scholarly journals INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL SECTION: BORDERS, FRONTIERS, AND BOUNDARIES IN THE MAYA WORLD: CONCEPTS AND THEORY

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 453-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Halperin ◽  
Carolyn Freiwald ◽  
Gyles Iannone
Keyword(s):  
Special Section ◽  
Economic Networks ◽  
Maya Area ◽  
Cultural Connections ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe Maya area has long been characterized as a mosaic of polities large and small, with cultural connections, linguistic dialects, ethnicities, and economic networks that shifted, expanded, and contracted over time. In this paper, we examine different ways of constructing boundaries. From physical demarcations in the landscape to habitual practices of interaction and affiliation, the lines that tied and divided were both unstable and multiple. We draw on definitions and theories from anthropology, history, and geography to review the concepts of borders, frontiers, and boundaries and their implications for the Maya area over the long term.

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