Potential Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Water Balance Structure in Poland

Abstract. A conceptual water balance model is presented to represent changes in monthly water balance following land use changes. Monthly rainfall–runoff, groundwater and soil moisture data from four experimental catchments in Western Australia have been analysed. Two of these catchments, "Ernies" (control, fully forested) and "Lemon" (54% cleared) are in a zone of mean annual rainfall of 725 mm, while "Salmon" (control, fully forested) and "Wights" (100% cleared) are in a zone with mean annual rainfall of 1125 mm. At the Salmon forested control catchment, streamflow comprises surface runoff, base flow and interflow components. In the Wights catchment, cleared of native forest for pasture development, all three components increased, groundwater levels rose significantly and stream zone saturated area increased from 1% to 15% of the catchment area. It took seven years after clearing for the rainfall–runoff generation process to stabilise in 1984. At the Ernies forested control catchment, the permanent groundwater system is 20 m below the stream bed and so does not contribute to streamflow. Following partial clearing of forest in the Lemon catchment, groundwater rose steadily and reached the stream bed by 1987. The streamflow increased in two phases: (i) immediately after clearing due to reduced evapotranspiration, and (ii) through an increase in the groundwater-induced stream zone saturated area after 1987. After analysing all the data available, a conceptual monthly model was created, comprising four inter-connecting stores: (i) an upper zone unsaturated store, (ii) a transient stream zone store, (ii) a lower zone unsaturated store and (iv) a saturated groundwater store. Data such as rooting depth, Leaf Area Index, soil porosity, profile thickness, depth to groundwater, stream length and surface slope were incorporated into the model as a priori defined attributes. The catchment average values for different stores were determined through matching observed and predicted monthly hydrographs. The observed and predicted monthly runoff for all catchments matched well with coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 0.68 to 0.87. Predictions were relatively poor for: (i) the Ernies catchment (lowest rainfall, forested), and (ii) months with very high flows. Overall, the predicted mean annual streamflow was within ±8% of the observed values. Keywords: monthly streamflow, land use change, conceptual model, data-based approach, groundwater

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Model-Based Impact Analysis of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Landscape Water Balance

Environmental Science and Engineering - Novel Measurement and Assessment Tools for Monitoring and Management of Land and Water Resources in Agricultural Landscapes of Central Asia ◽

10.1007/978-3-319-01017-5_36 ◽

2013 ◽

pp. 577-590 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Marco Natkhin ◽

Ralf Dannowski ◽

Ottfried Dietrich ◽

Jörg Steidl ◽

Gunnar Lischeid

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Model Based ◽

Landscape Water ◽

Landscape Water Balance

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The extent of land use impact on water regime

Plant Soil and Environment ◽

10.17221/3435-pse ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 52 (No. 6) ◽

pp. 239-244 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

P. Kovář

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Regime ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Subsurface Water ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Short Term ◽

Water Recharge ◽

The Impact

The paper is focused on the impact of land use changes on water regime. First, an emphasis was given to what extent the main components of the water balance on the experimental catchment V&scaron;eminka (region Vsetínské Hills) were influenced. For this reason, the WBCM-5 model was implemented for the period of 10 years in a daily step with a particular reference to simulate the components of direct runoff and of subsurface water recharge. In the selected years of the period 1990–2000, the major changes were made in land use and also the significant fluctuation of rainfall-runoff regimes were observed (e.g. dry year 1992 and flood year 1997). After WBCM-5 parameter calibration it was found that some water balance components can change in relation to substantial land use changes even up to tens of percent in a balance-consideration, i.e. in daily, monthly and yearly or decade values, namely the components of interception and also of direct runoff and of subsurface water recharge. However, a different situation appears when investigating significant short-term rainfall-runoff processes. There were about seven real flood events analysed using the model KINFIL-2 (time step 0.5 hr) during the same period of about 10 years on the same catchment. Furthermore, some land use change positive or negative scenarios were also analysed there. As opposed to long-term water balance analyses, there was never achieved any greater differences in the hydrograph peak or volume than 10%. Summarising, it is always important to distinguish a possible land use change impact in either long-term balance or short-term runoff consideration, otherwise a misunderstanding might be easily made, as can often be found when commenting on the impact on floods in some mass media.

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A Physically Based Runoff Model Analysis of the Querétaro River Basin

Journal of Applied Mathematics ◽

10.1155/2014/586872 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Carlos Javier Villa Alvarado ◽

Eladio Delgadillo-Ruiz ◽

Carlos Alberto Mastachi-Loza ◽

Enrique González-Sosa ◽

Ramos Salinas Norma Maricela

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

River Basin ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Geographical Location ◽

Physical Parameters ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Strong Base ◽

Physically Based ◽

Runoff Model

Today the knowledge of physical parameters of a basin is essential to know adequately the rainfall-runoff process; it is well known that the specific characteristics of each basin such as temperature, geographical location, and elevation above sea level affect the maximum discharge and the basin time response. In this paper a physically based model has been applied, to analyze water balance by evaluating the volume rainfall-runoff using SHETRAN and hydrometric data measurements in 2003. The results have been compared with five ETp different methodologies in the Querétaro river basin in central Mexico. With these results the main effort of the authorities should be directed to better control of land-use changes and to working permanently in the analysis of the related parameters, which will have a similar behavior to changes currently being introduced and presented in observed values in this basin. This methodology can be a strong base for sustainable water management in a basin, the prognosis and effect of land-use changes, and availability of water and also can be used to determine application of known basin parameters, basically depending on land-use, land-use changes, and climatological database to determine the water balance in a basin.

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GEO-CWB: GIS-Based Algorithms for Parametrising the Responses of Catchment Dynamic Water Balance Regarding Climate and Land Use Changes

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology7030039 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 39 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Salem S. Gharbia ◽

Laurence Gill ◽

Paul Johnston ◽

Francesco Pilla

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Critical Factor ◽

Balance Model ◽

Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽

Catchment Scale ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Spatially Distributed ◽

Hydrological System

Parametrising the spatially distributed dynamic catchment water balance is a critical factor in studying the hydrological system responses to climate and land use changes. This study presents the development of a geographic information system (GIS)-based set of algorithms (geographical spatially distributed water balance model (GEO-CWB)), which is developed from integrating physical, statistical, and machine learning models. The GEO-CWB tool has been developed to simulate and predict future spatially distributed dynamic water balance using GIS environment at the catchment scale in response to the future changes in climate variables and land use through a user-friendly interface. The tool helps in bridging the gap in quantifying the high-resolution dynamic water balance components for the large catchments by reducing the computational costs. Also, this paper presents the application and validation of GEO-CWB on the Shannon catchment in Ireland as an example of a large and complicated hydrological system. It can be concluded that climate and land use changes have significant effects on the spatial and temporal patterns of the different water balance components of the catchment.

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Hydrological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11051443 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 1443 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Rui Yan ◽

Yanpeng Cai ◽

Chunhui Li ◽

Xuan Wang ◽

Qiang Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Loess Plateau ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Water Yield ◽

The Loess Plateau ◽

Runoff Water ◽

Lulc Change

This study researched the individual and combined impacts of future LULC and climate changes on water balance in the upper reaches of the Beiluo River basin on the Loess Plateau of China, using the scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate data indicated that both precipitation and temperature increased at seasonal and annual scales from 2020 to 2050 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The future land use changes were predicted through the CA-Markov model. The land use predictions of 2025, 2035, and 2045 indicated rising forest areas with decreased agricultural land and grassland. In this study, three scenarios including only LULC change, only climate change, and combined climate and LULC change were established. The SWAT model was calibrated, validated, and used to simulate the water balance under the three scenarios. The results showed that increased rainfall and temperature may lead to increased runoff, water yield, and ET in spring, summer, and autumn and to decreased runoff, water yield, and ET in winter from 2020 to 2050. However, LULC change, compared with climate change, may have a smaller impact on the water balance. On an annual scale, runoff and water yield may gradually decrease, but ET may increase. The combined effects of both LULC and climate changes on water balance in the future were similar to the variation trend of climate changes alone at both annual and seasonal scales. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area.

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