Numerical Models for the Simulation of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Variations

1994 ◽  
pp. 81-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Claude André
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Climate Variations

Stochastic simulation of the spatio-temporal field of the average daily heat index in Southern Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 149-160
Author(s):  
N Kargapolova
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Real Field ◽  
Gaussian Field ◽  
The Real ◽  
Southern Russia ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Temporal Field

Numerical models of the heat index time series and spatio-temporal fields can be used for a variety of purposes, from the study of the dynamics of heat waves to projections of the influence of future climate on humans. To conduct these studies one must have efficient numerical models that successfully reproduce key features of the real weather processes. In this study, 2 numerical stochastic models of the spatio-temporal non-Gaussian field of the average daily heat index (ADHI) are considered. The field is simulated on an irregular grid determined by the location of weather stations. The first model is based on the method of the inverse distribution function. The second model is constructed using the normalization method. Real data collected at weather stations located in southern Russia are used to both determine the input parameters and to verify the proposed models. It is shown that the first model reproduces the properties of the real field of the ADHI more precisely compared to the second one, but the numerical implementation of the first model is significantly more time consuming. In the future, it is intended to transform the models presented to a numerical model of the conditional spatio-temporal field of the ADHI defined on a dense spatio-temporal grid and to use the model constructed for the stochastic forecasting of the heat index.

Extending "the Shorted Port Method" for Calculation of S-Matrices, Using Reduced Numerical Models

2003 ◽  
Vol 59 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
D. Yu. Kulik ◽  
S. L. Senkevich ◽  
Victor Ivanovich Tkachenko
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models

Validation of Numerical Models Used for Designing the Composite Blade for ILX-27 Rotorcraft

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (4) ◽  
pp. 23-31
Author(s):  
Jakub Wilk ◽  
Radosław Guzikowski
Keyword(s):  
Epoxy Composite ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Strength Analysis ◽  
Laminate Glass ◽  
Composite Blade ◽  
Real Objects ◽  
Validation Procedure ◽  
Research Objects ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

Abstract The paper presents the validation procedure of the model used in the analysis of the composite blade for the rotor of the ILX-27 rotorcraft, designed and manufactured in the Institute of Aviation, by means of numerical analyses and tests of composite elements. Numerical analysis using finite element method and experimental studies of three research objects made of basic materials comprising the blade structure – carbon-epoxy laminate, glass-epoxy composite made of roving and foam filler – were carried out. The elements were in the form of four-point bent beams, and for comparison of the results the deflection arrow values in the middle of the beam and axial deformations on the upper and lower surfaces were selected. The procedure allowed to adjust the discrete model to real objects and to verify and correct the material data used in the strength analysis of the designed blade.

Modeling drive wheels of hoisting machines with rubber cables

2020 ◽  
pp. 105-114
Author(s):  
V. E. Perekutnev ◽  
V. V. Zotov
Keyword(s):  
Stress State ◽  
Safety Factor ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Capital Costs ◽  
Reducing Gear ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
Steel Cables ◽  
Sidewall Surface

Upgrading of hoisting machines aims to improve their performance, to reduce risk of accidents, and to cut down operational and capital costs. One of the redesign solutions is replacement of steel cables by rubber cables. This novation can extend life of pulling members, decrease diameters of drive and guide wheels and, consequently, elements of the whole hoisting machines: rotor, reducing gear, motor. This engineering novation needs re-designing of hoisting machines; thus, the new design should be validated, in particular, strength characteristics of the machine members. This article considers a drive wheel of a hoisting machine with a pulling belt. In order to justify the potential range of design parameters with regard to safety factor, the numerical models of different-design drive wheels are developed and their operation with pulling belt (rubber cable) is simulated in the SolidWorks environment. The data on the stress state of the wheel elements are analyzed, the most loaded points are identified, and the maximal stresses on the sidewall surface and in the spokes of wheels of different designs are plotted.

Identifying Physico-Chemical Laws from the Robotically Collected Data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liwei Cao ◽  
Danilo Russo ◽  
Vassilios S. Vassiliadis ◽  
Alexei Lapkin
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Predictor Variable ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Physico Chemical ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Relationship

<p>A mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) formulation for symbolic regression was proposed to identify physical models from noisy experimental data. The formulation was tested using numerical models and was found to be more efficient than the previous literature example with respect to the number of predictor variables and training data points. The globally optimal search was extended to identify physical models and to cope with noise in the experimental data predictor variable. The methodology was coupled with the collection of experimental data in an automated fashion, and was proven to be successful in identifying the correct physical models describing the relationship between the shear stress and shear rate for both Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids, and simple kinetic laws of reactions. Future work will focus on addressing the limitations of the formulation presented in this work, by extending it to be able to address larger complex physical models.</p><p><br></p>

Probabilistic multiscale modeling of fracture in heterogeneous materials and structures

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (7) ◽  
pp. 45-54
Author(s):  
A. M. Lepikhin ◽  
N. A. Makhutov ◽  
Yu. I. Shokin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Multiscale Modeling ◽  
Virtual Work ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Heterogeneous Materials ◽  
Heterogeneous Structure ◽  
Generalized Coordinates ◽  
Heterogeneous Structures

The probabilistic aspects of multiscale modeling of the fracture of heterogeneous structures are considered. An approach combining homogenization methods with phenomenological and numerical models of fracture mechanics is proposed to solve the problems of assessing the probabilities of destruction of structurally heterogeneous materials. A model of a generalized heterogeneous structure consisting of heterogeneous materials and regions of different scales containing cracks and crack-like defects is formulated. Linking of scales is carried out using kinematic conditions and multiscale principle of virtual forces. The probability of destruction is formulated as the conditional probability of successive nested fracture events of different scales. Cracks and crack-like defects are considered the main sources of fracture. The distribution of defects is represented in the form of Poisson ensembles. Critical stresses at the tops of cracks are described by the Weibull model. Analytical expressions for the fracture probabilities of multiscale heterogeneous structures with multilevel limit states are obtained. An approach based on a modified Monte Carlo method of statistical modeling is proposed to assess the fracture probabilities taking into account the real morphology of heterogeneous structures. A feature of the proposed method is the use of a three-level fracture scheme with numerical solution of the problems at the micro, meso and macro scales. The main variables are generalized forces of the crack propagation and crack growth resistance. Crack sizes are considered generalized coordinates. To reduce the dimensionality, the problem of fracture mechanics is reformulated into the problem of stability of a heterogeneous structure under load with variations of generalized coordinates and analysis of the virtual work of generalized forces. Expressions for estimating the fracture probabilities using a modified Monte Carlo method for multiscale heterogeneous structures are obtained. The prospects of using the developed approaches to assess the fracture probabilities and address the problems of risk analysis of heterogeneous structures are shown.

SEISMIC RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES: CASE STUDY ON A BLACK CARBON PLANT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Karagiannakis
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk And Resilience ◽  
Industrial Plants ◽  
Plant Equipment

This paper deals with state of the art risk and resilience calculations for industrial plants. Resilience is a top priority issue on the agenda of societies due to climate change and the all-time demand for human life safety and financial robustness. Industrial plants are highly complex systems containing a considerable number of equipment such as steel storage tanks, pipe rack-piping systems, and other installations. Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios triggered by past earthquakes due to failure on critical components were followed by severe repercussions on the community, long recovery times and great economic losses. Hence, facility planners and emergency managers should be aware of possible seismic damages and should have already established recovery plans to maximize the resilience and minimize the losses. Seismic risk assessment is the first step of resilience calculations, as it establishes possible damage scenarios. In order to have an accurate risk analysis, the plant equipment vulnerability must be assessed; this is made feasible either from fragility databases in the literature that refer to customized equipment or through numerical calculations. Two different approaches to fragility assessment will be discussed in this paper: (i) code-based Fragility Curves (FCs); and (ii) fragility curves based on numerical models. A carbon black process plant is used as a case study in order to display the influence of various fragility curve realizations taking their effects on risk and resilience calculations into account. Additionally, a new way of representing the total resilience of industrial installations is proposed. More precisely, all possible scenarios will be endowed with their weighted recovery curves (according to their probability of occurrence) and summed together. The result is a concise graph that can help stakeholders to identify critical plant equipment and make decisions on seismic mitigation strategies for plant safety and efficiency. Finally, possible mitigation strategies, like structural health monitoring and metamaterial-based seismic shields are addressed, in order to show how future developments may enhance plant resilience. The work presented hereafter represents a highly condensed application of the research done during the XP-RESILIENCE project, while more detailed information is available on the project website https://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience.

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