Stochastic simulation of the spatio-temporal field of the average daily heat index in Southern Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 149-160
Author(s):  
N Kargapolova
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Real Field ◽  
Gaussian Field ◽  
The Real ◽  
Southern Russia ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Temporal Field

Numerical models of the heat index time series and spatio-temporal fields can be used for a variety of purposes, from the study of the dynamics of heat waves to projections of the influence of future climate on humans. To conduct these studies one must have efficient numerical models that successfully reproduce key features of the real weather processes. In this study, 2 numerical stochastic models of the spatio-temporal non-Gaussian field of the average daily heat index (ADHI) are considered. The field is simulated on an irregular grid determined by the location of weather stations. The first model is based on the method of the inverse distribution function. The second model is constructed using the normalization method. Real data collected at weather stations located in southern Russia are used to both determine the input parameters and to verify the proposed models. It is shown that the first model reproduces the properties of the real field of the ADHI more precisely compared to the second one, but the numerical implementation of the first model is significantly more time consuming. In the future, it is intended to transform the models presented to a numerical model of the conditional spatio-temporal field of the ADHI defined on a dense spatio-temporal grid and to use the model constructed for the stochastic forecasting of the heat index.

scholarly journals Stochastic Model of Spatial Fields of the Average Daily Wind Chill Index

Information ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Nina Kargapolova
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
West Siberia ◽  
Real Field ◽  
Regular Grid ◽  
Wind Chill ◽  
The Real ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Wind Chill Index

The objective of this paper was to construct a numerical stochastic model of the spatial field of the average daily wind chill index on an irregular grid defined by the location of the weather stations. It is shown in the paper that the field in question was heterogeneous and non-Gaussian. A stochastic model based on the real data collected at the weather stations located in West Siberia and on the method of the inverse distribution function that sufficiently well reproduce different characteristics of the real field of the average daily wind chill index is proposed in this paper. I also discussed several questions related to the simulation of the field on a regular grid. In the future, my intention is to transform the model proposed to a model of the conditional spatio-temporal field defined on a regular grid that allows one to forecast the wind chill index.

scholarly journals Integrated structured light architectures

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Randy Lemons ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Josef C. Frisch ◽  
Alan Fry ◽  
Joseph Robinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Multiple Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Beam Combination ◽  
Angular Momenta ◽  
Field Control ◽  
Topological States ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Temporal Field ◽  
Structural Versatility

AbstractThe structural versatility of light underpins an outstanding collection of optical phenomena where both geometrical and topological states of light can dictate how matter will respond or display. Light possesses multiple degrees of freedom such as amplitude, and linear, spin angular, and orbital angular momenta, but the ability to adaptively engineer the spatio-temporal distribution of all these characteristics is primarily curtailed by technologies used to impose any desired structure to light. We demonstrate a laser architecture based on coherent beam combination offering integrated spatio-temporal field control and programmability, thereby presenting unique opportunities for generating light by design to exploit its topology.

Spatio-Temporal Modeling on Village Land Feature Change

2012 ◽  
Vol 204-208 ◽  
pp. 2721-2725
Author(s):  
Hua Ji Zhu ◽  
Hua Rui Wu
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Temporal Change ◽  
End Users ◽  
Temporal Modeling ◽  
The Real ◽  
Change Type ◽  
Feature Change ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Village ◽  
Land Changes

Village land continually changes in the real world. In order to keep the data up-to-date, data producers need update the data frequently. When the village land data are updated, the update information must be dispensed to the end-users to keep their client-databases current. In the real world, village land changes in many forms. Identifying the change type of village land (i.e. captures the semantics of change) and representing them in the data world can help end-users understand the change commonly and be convenient for end-users to integrate these change information into their databases. This work focuses on the model of the spatio-temporal change. A three-tuple model CAR for representing the spatio-temporal change is proposed based on the village land feature set before change and the village land feature set after change, change type and rules. In this model, the C denotes the change type. A denotes the attribute set; R denotes the judging rules of change type. The rule is described by the IF－THEN expressions. By the operations between R and A, the C is distinguished. This model overcomes the limitations of current methods. And more, the rules in this model can be easy realized in computer program.

scholarly journals Towards community-driven paleogeographic reconstructions: integrating open-access paleogeographic and paleobiology data with plate tectonics

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1529-1541 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Wright ◽  
S. Zahirovic ◽  
R. D. Müller ◽  
M. Seton
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Plate Tectonics ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Plate Motion ◽  
Temporal Data Mining ◽  
Dynamic Topography ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Fossil Data

Abstract. A variety of paleogeographic reconstructions have been published, with applications ranging from paleoclimate, ocean circulation and faunal radiation models to resource exploration; yet their uncertainties remain difficult to assess as they are generally presented as low-resolution static maps. We present a methodology for ground-truthing the digital Palaeogeographic Atlas of Australia by linking the GPlates plate reconstruction tool to the global Paleobiology Database and a Phanerozoic plate motion model. We develop a spatio-temporal data mining workflow to validate the Phanerozoic Palaeogeographic Atlas of Australia with paleoenvironments derived from fossil data. While there is general agreement between fossil data and the paleogeographic model, the methodology highlights key inconsistencies. The Early Devonian paleogeographic model of southeastern Australia insufficiently describes the Emsian inundation that may be refined using biofacies distributions. Additionally, the paleogeographic model and fossil data can be used to strengthen numerical models, such as the dynamic topography and the associated inundation of eastern Australia during the Cretaceous. Although paleobiology data provide constraints only for paleoenvironments with high preservation potential of organisms, our approach enables the use of additional proxy data to generate improved paleogeographic reconstructions.

scholarly journals Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Michiel van Weele ◽  
Peter Uhe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Surface Cooling

Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution would decrease the impacts.

scholarly journals Role Playing In the Field Of Education

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Yuan Lo
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
Role Playing ◽  
Real Field ◽  
Real Situation ◽  
The Real ◽  
Artificial Environment ◽  
Life Education

The character and status are presented together. Others have to play the role. The real situation is to be presented in a simple way. It can be understood how to adapt yourself to the real field. The role of the actress is to be revealed. Students get real-life education in the artificial environment. Performances of speech and expression are improved.

scholarly journals Presentation and discussion of the high resolution atmosphere-land surface subsurface simulation dataset of the virtual Neckar catchment for the period 2007–2015

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Schalge ◽  
Gabriele Baroni ◽  
Barbara Haese ◽  
Daniel Erdal ◽  
Gernot Geppert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
Terrestrial System

Abstract. Coupled numerical models, which simulate water and energy fluxes in the subsurface-land surface-atmosphere system in a physically consistent way are a prerequisite for the analysis and a better understanding of heat and matter exchange fluxes at compartmental boundaries and interdependencies of states across these boundaries. Complete state evolutions generated by such models may be regarded as a proxy of the real world, provided they are run at sufficiently high resolution and incorporate the most important processes. Such a virtual reality can be used to test hypotheses on the functioning of the coupled terrestrial system. Coupled simulation systems, however, face severe problems caused by the vastly different scales of the processes acting in and between the compartments of the terrestrial system, which also hinders comprehensive tests of their realism. We used the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform TerrSysMP, which couples the meteorological model COSMO, the land-surface model CLM, and the subsurface model ParFlow, to generate a virtual catchment for a regional terrestrial system mimicking the Neckar catchment in southwest Germany. Simulations for this catchment are made for the period 2007–2015, and at a spatial resolution of 400 m for the land surface and subsurface and 1.1 km for the atmosphere. Among a discussion of modelling challenges, the model performance is evaluated based on real observations covering several variables of the water cycle. We find that the simulated (virtual) catchment behaves in many aspects quite close to observations of the real Neckar catchment, e.g. concerning atmospheric boundary-layer height, precipitation, and runoff. But also discrepancies become apparent, both in the ability of the model to correctly simulate some processes which still need improvement such as overland flow, and in the realism of some observation operators like the satellite based soil moisture sensors. The whole raw dataset is available for interested users. The dataset described here is available via the CERA database (Schalge et al., 2020): https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/Neckar_VCS_v1.

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