A multi-fidelity integration rule for statistical moments and failure probability evaluations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Xu ◽  
Yunjie Du ◽  
Lijuan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Statistical Moments ◽  
Integration Rule

Finite-order Integration Weights Can be Dangerous

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.H. Sloan
Keyword(s):  
Function Space ◽  
Finite Order ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Integration Rule ◽  
Dimensional Lattice ◽  
3 Dimensional ◽  
Sum Of Functions ◽  
Integration Rules

Abstract Finite-order weights have been introduced in recent years to describe the often occurring situation that multivariate integrands can be approximated by a sum of functions each depending only on a small subset of the variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the danger of relying on this structure when designing lattice integration rules, if the true integrand has components lying outside the assumed finiteorder function space. It does this by proving, for weights of order two, the existence of 3-dimensional lattice integration rules for which the worst case error is of order O(N¯½), where N is the number of points, yet for which there exists a smooth 3- dimensional integrand for which the integration rule does not converge.

Recent advances on urban taxi sharing systems with the path arrival probability

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dui Hongyan ◽  
Zhang Chi
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Optimal Path ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Driving Time ◽  
Load Rate ◽  
Travel Efficiency ◽  
Arrival Probability

Background : Taxi sharing is an emerging transportation arrangement that helps improve the passengers’ travel efficiency and reduce costs. This study proposes an urban taxi sharing system. Methods: Considering each side congestion of the transport network, their corresponding reliability and failure probability are analyzed. Under the constraints of the number of passengers and their own time windows, the analysis is performed on passengers whose optimal path is inclusive. Results: According to the optimal strategy, the different passengers can be arranged into the same taxi to realize the taxi sharing. Then the shared taxi route can be optimized. Conclusion: Due to the reasonable vehicle route planning and passenger combination, these can effectively alleviate the traffic congestion, save the driving time, reduce the taxi no-load rate, and save the driving distance. At last, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

scholarly journals Development of fragility curves for railway ballast and embankment scour due to overtopping flood flow

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryota Tsubaki ◽  
Koji Ichii ◽  
Jeremy D. Bricker ◽  
Yoshihisa Kawahara
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
Single Track ◽  
Hydraulic Analysis ◽  
Railway Ballast ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Flood Flow

Abstract. Fragility curves evaluating risk of railway track ballast and embankment fill scour were developed. To develop fragility curves, two well-documented single-track railway washouts during two recent floods in Japan were investigated. Type of damage to the railway was categorized into no damage, ballast scour, and embankment scour, in order of damage severity. Railway overtopping surcharge for each event was estimated via hydrologic and hydraulic analysis. Normal and log-normal fragility curves were developed based on failure probability derived from field records. A combined ballast and embankment scour model was validated by comparing the spatial distribution of railway scour with the field damage record.

scholarly journals Definitions and Concepts for Quantitative Rockfall Hazard and Risk Analysis

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 158
Author(s):  
Didier Hantz ◽  
Jordi Corominas ◽  
Giovanni B. Crosta ◽  
Michel Jaboyedoff
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Rockfall Hazard ◽  
Process Failure ◽  
Failure Propagation ◽  
Element At Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk Assessment ◽  
Definition Of

There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests using terms that appear to be the most logic and explicit as possible and describes methods to derive some of the main hazards and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized and diffuse hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed, and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the reach probability, and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (passage frequency) can be derived. This frequency is relevant for risk assessment when the element at risk can be damaged several times. If it is not replaced, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall is more relevant.

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