Present-day climatology and projected changes of warm and cold days in the CNRM-CM3 global climate model

Abstract. Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high- and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December), the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks are projected to shift polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high-latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high-latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high-latitudes. Together with the projected increases in storm intensity and sea level and the loss of sea ice, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.

Download Full-text

Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M)

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 2335-2355 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Erlend M. Knudsen ◽

John E. Walsh

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Sea Level ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

System Model ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Earth System ◽

Projected Changes

Abstract. Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December) – the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is the greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks show indications of shifting polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region in September. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high latitudes. Together with the projected loss of sea ice and increases in storm intensity and sea level, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.

Download Full-text

Water cycle changes over the Mediterranean: a comparison study of a super-high-resolution global model with CMIP3

Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences ◽

10.1098/rsta.2010.0204 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 368 (1931) ◽

pp. 5137-5149 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Fengjun Jin ◽

Akio Kitoh ◽

Pinhas Alpert

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Water Cycle ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Western Mediterranean ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Projected Changes

Water cycle components over the Mediterranean for both a current run (1979–2007) and a future run (2075–2099) are studied with the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 20 km grid global climate model. Results are compared with another study using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ensemble model (hereafter, the Mariotti model). Our results are surprisingly close to Mariotti’s. The projected mean annual change rates of precipitation ( P ) between the future and the current run for sea and land are −11 per cent and −10 per cent, respectively, which are not as high as Mariotti’s. Projected changes for evaporation ( E ) are +9.3 per cent and −3.6 per cent, compared with +7.2 per cent and −8.1 per cent in Mariotti’s study, respectively. However, no significant difference in the change in P – E over the sea body was found between these two studies. The increased E over the eastern Mediterranean was found to be higher than that in the western Mediterranean, but the P decrease was lower. The net moisture budget, P – E , shows that the eastern Mediterranean will become even drier than the western Mediterranean. The river model suggests decreasing water inflow to the Mediterranean of approximately 36 per cent (excluding the Nile).

Download Full-text

WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 4087-4095 ◽

Cited By ~ 103

Author(s):

William J. Gutowski Jr. ◽

Filippo Giorgi ◽

Bertrand Timbal ◽

Anne Frigon ◽

Daniela Jacob ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Diagnostic Model ◽

Adaptation Studies ◽

Pilot Studies ◽

Common Framework ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Regional Downscaling ◽

Projected Changes

Abstract. The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP) in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections, all of which can potentially be distilled into climate change information for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies advance regional downscaling by targeting one or more of the CORDEX Regional Challenges. A CORDEX-CORE framework is planned that will produce a baseline set of homogeneous high-resolution, downscaled projections for regions worldwide. In CMIP6, CORDEX coordinates with ScenarioMIP and is structured to allow cross comparisons with HighResMIP and interaction with the CMIP6 VIACS Advisory Board.

Download Full-text

High bit rate ACTS experiments for performing global science - Keck Telescope and global climate model

10.2514/6.1996-1100 ◽

1996 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Larry Bergman ◽

J. Gary ◽

Burt Edelson ◽

Neil Helm ◽

Judith Cohen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Bit Rate ◽

Global Science ◽

High Bit Rate

Download Full-text

DEVELOPMENT OF BIAS CORRECTION METHOD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL AND FUTURE CHANGE PROJECTION OF STORM SURGE USING AMR MODEL

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B2 (Coastal Engineering) ◽

10.2208/kaigan.74.i_607 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 74 (2) ◽

pp. I_607-I_612 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yosuke YAMAMOTO ◽

Nobuthito MORI ◽

Marc KJERLAND

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Correction Method ◽

Future Change ◽

Bias Correction Method

Download Full-text

A comparison of ship and satellite measurements of cloud properties with global climate model simulations in the southeast Pacific stratus deck

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-10-6527-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (14) ◽

pp. 6527-6536 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

M. A. Brunke ◽

S. P. de Szoeke ◽

P. Zuidema ◽

X. Zeng

Keyword(s):

Diurnal Cycle ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Cloud Fraction ◽

Cloud Base ◽

Liquid Water Path ◽

Cloud Properties ◽

Southeast Pacific ◽

Cloud Thickness

Abstract. Here, liquid water path (LWP), cloud fraction, cloud top height, and cloud base height retrieved by a suite of A-train satellite instruments (the CPR aboard CloudSat, CALIOP aboard CALIPSO, and MODIS aboard Aqua) are compared to ship observations from research cruises made in 2001 and 2003–2007 into the stratus/stratocumulus deck over the southeast Pacific Ocean. It is found that CloudSat radar-only LWP is generally too high over this region and the CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud bases are too low. This results in a relationship (LWP~h9) between CloudSat LWP and CALIPSO cloud thickness (h) that is very different from the adiabatic relationship (LWP~h2) from in situ observations. Such biases can be reduced if LWPs suspected to be contaminated by precipitation are eliminated, as determined by the maximum radar reflectivity Zmax>−15 dBZ in the apparent lower half of the cloud, and if cloud bases are determined based upon the adiabatically-determined cloud thickness (h~LWP1/2). Furthermore, comparing results from a global model (CAM3.1) to ship observations reveals that, while the simulated LWP is quite reasonable, the model cloud is too thick and too low, allowing the model to have LWPs that are almost independent of h. This model can also obtain a reasonable diurnal cycle in LWP and cloud fraction at a location roughly in the centre of this region (20° S, 85° W) but has an opposite diurnal cycle to those observed aboard ship at a location closer to the coast (20° S, 75° W). The diurnal cycle at the latter location is slightly improved in the newest version of the model (CAM4). However, the simulated clouds remain too thick and too low, as cloud bases are usually at or near the surface.

Download Full-text

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12050622 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 622

Author(s):

Tugba Ozturk ◽

F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽

M. Levent Kurnaz

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate Model ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Extreme ◽

Pronounced Increase ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Extreme Indices

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

Download Full-text