How well are daily intense rainfall events captured by current climate models over Africa?

2013 ◽  
Vol 42 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2691-2711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Crétat ◽  
Edward K. Vizy ◽  
Kerry H. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Current Climate

scholarly journals How nutrient rich are decaying cocoa pod husks? The kinetics of nutrient leaching

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.-G. J. M. Hougni ◽  
A. G. T. Schut ◽  
L. S. Woittiez ◽  
B. Vanlauwe ◽  
K. E. Giller
Keyword(s):  
Nutrient Release ◽  
Nutrient Content ◽  
Nutrient Leaching ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Decomposition Rates ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Water Saturated ◽  
Kinetics Of ◽  
Cocoa Pod Husks

Abstract Aim Recycling of cocoa pod husks has potential to contribute to mineral nutrition of cocoa. Yet little is known of the nutrient content and nutrient release patterns from the husks. The potassium (K) rich husks are usually left in heaps in cocoa plantations in Africa. We aimed to understand and quantify release patterns of K and other nutrients from husks under varying rainfall regimes and assessed the effects of partial decomposition and inundation on nutrient leaching rates. Methods We incubated chunks of cocoa pod husks to assess decomposition rates and we measured nutrient leaching rates from two sets of husk chunks: one set was placed in tubes that were submitted to simulated scheduled rainfall events while the second set was continuously inundated in beakers. Results Decomposition of husks followed a second-order exponential curve (k: 0.09 day−1; ageing constant: 0.43). Nutrient losses recorded within 25 days were larger and more variable for K (33%) than for other macronutrients released in this order: Mg > Ca ≈ P > N (less than 15%). Potassium leaching was mainly driven by rainfall frequency (P < 0.05) and reinforced by intense rainfall, especially at lower frequency. Under water-saturated conditions, 11% of K was leached out within 48 h from fresh husks compared with 92% from partially decayed husks. Conclusion Some initial decomposition of cocoa pod husks is required to expose K to intense leaching. As decomposition progresses, abundant K losses are to be expected under frequent and/or intense rainfall events.

scholarly journals Stationary and Non-Stationary Frameworks for Extreme Rainfall Time Series in Southern Italy

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide De Luca ◽  
Luciano Galasso
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events

This study tests stationary and non-stationary approaches for modelling data series of hydro-meteorological variables. Specifically, the authors considered annual maximum rainfall accumulations observed in the Calabria region (southern Italy), and attention was focused on time series characterized by heavy rainfall events which occurred from 1 January 2000 in the study area. This choice is justified by the need to check if the recent rainfall events in the new century can be considered as very different or not from the events occurred in the past. In detail, the whole data set of each considered time series (characterized by a sample size N > 40 data) was analyzed, in order to compare recent and past rainfall accumulations, which occurred in a specific site. All the proposed models were based on the Two-Component Extreme Value (TCEV) probability distribution, which is frequently applied for annual maximum time series in Calabria. The authors discussed the possible sources of uncertainty related to each framework and remarked on the crucial role played by ergodicity. In fact, if the process is assumed to be non-stationary, then ergodicity cannot hold, and thus possible trends should be derived from external sources, different from the time series of interest: in this work, Regional Climate Models’ (RCMs) outputs were considered in order to assess possible trends of TCEV parameters. From the obtained results, it does not seem essential to adopt non-stationary models, as significant trends do not appear from the observed data, due to a relevant number of heavy events which also occurred in the central part of the last century.

scholarly journals Brief communication "Climatic covariates for the frequency analysis of heavy rainfall in the Mediterranean region"

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2463-2468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
L. Neppel ◽  
J. Carreau
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Abstract. In Mediterranean regions, climate studies indicate for the future a possible increase in the extreme rainfall events occurrence and intensity. To evaluate the future changes in the extreme event distribution, there is a need to provide non-stationary models taking into account the non-stationarity of climate. In this study, several climatic covariates are tested in a non-stationary peaks-over-threshold modeling approach for heavy rainfall events in Southern France. Results indicate that the introduction of climatic covariates could improve the statistical modeling of extreme events. In the case study, the frequency of southern synoptic circulation patterns is found to improve the occurrence process of extreme events modeled via a Poisson distribution, whereas for the magnitude of the events, the air temperature and sea level pressure appear as valid covariates for the Generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. Covariates describing the humidity fluxes at monthly and seasonal time scales also provide significant model improvements for the occurrence and the magnitude of heavy rainfall events. With such models including climatic covariates, it becomes possible to asses the risk of extreme events given certain climatic conditions at monthly or seasonal timescales. The future changes in the heavy rainfall distribution can also be evaluated using covariates computed by climate models.

scholarly journals A Review of Case Studies on Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Cycle: An Indian Perspective

2021 ◽  
pp. 249-266
Author(s):  
P K Bhunya ◽  
Sanjay Kumar ◽  
Sunil Gurrapu ◽  
M K Bhuyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Groundwater Level Fluctuations ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Flood Characteristics

In recent times, several studies focused on the global warming that may affect the hydrological cycle due to intensification of temporal and spatial variations in precipitation. Such climatic change is likely to impact significantly upon freshwater resources availability. In India, demand for water has already increased manifold over the years due to urbanization, agriculture expansion, increasing population, rapid industrialization and economic development. Numerous scientific studies also report increases in the intensity, duration, and spatial extents of floods, higher atmospheric temperatures, warmer sea, changes in precipitation patterns, and changing groundwater levels. This work briefly discusses about the present scenario regarding impact of climate change on water resources in India. Due to the insufficient resolution of climate models and their generally crude representation of sub-grid scale and convective processes, little confidence can be placed in any definite predictions of such effects, although a tendency for more heavy rainfall events seems likely, and a modest increase in frequency in floods. Thus to analyses this effect, this work considers real problems about the changing flood characteristics pattern in two river regions, and the effect of spatial and temporal pattern in rainfall. In addition to these, the work also examines the trend of groundwater level fluctuations in few blocks of Ganga–Yamuna and Sutlej-Yamuna Link interfluves region. As a whole, it examines the potential for sustainable development of surface water and groundwater resources within the constraints imposed by climate change.

scholarly journals Unprecedented Clear Skies Drove Remarkable Melting in Greenland

Eos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Thomasy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Impact

Scientists are concerned that current climate models do not fully account for the impact of atmospheric conditions on the Greenland Ice Sheet and, consequently, may dramatically underestimate melting.

scholarly journals RainFARM: Rainfall Downscaling by a Filtered Autoregressive Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 724-738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Rebora ◽  
Luca Ferraris ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Antonello Provenzale
Keyword(s):  
Random Field ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Gaussian Random Field ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
The Other ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Meteorological Models

Abstract A method is introduced for stochastic rainfall downscaling that can be easily applied to the precipitation forecasts provided by meteorological models. Our approach, called the Rainfall Filtered Autoregressive Model (RainFARM), is based on the nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian random field, and it conserves the information present in the rainfall fields at larger scales. The procedure is tested on two radar-measured intense rainfall events, one at midlatitude and the other in the Tropics, and it is shown that the synthetic fields generated by RainFARM have small-scale statistical properties that are consistent with those of the measured precipitation fields. The application of the disaggregation procedure to an example meteorological forecast illustrates how the method can be implemented in operational practice.

scholarly journals Outflow dynamics in a French system of vertical wetlands operating with an extended feeding cycle

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (4) ◽  
pp. 699-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirene Augusta de Andrade Moraes ◽  
Jorge A. García Zumalacarregui ◽  
Camila Maria Trein ◽  
Vinícius Verna M. Ferreira ◽  
Marcos von Sperling
Keyword(s):  
Flow Dynamics ◽  
Liquid Volume ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Liquid Retention ◽  
Internal Storage ◽  
Feeding Cycle ◽  
Outflow Hydrograph ◽  
Extended Cycle

Abstract The possibility of using the first stage of the French System (FS) of vertical wetlands composed of only two units in parallel requires hydraulic investigations to allow a better understanding of its operation under tropical climatic environments. This study evaluated the pattern of the outflow hydrograph along an extended cycle of operation (seven days of feeding) and the influence of the sludge deposit, rainfall occurrence and duration of pulse application on the outflow hydrograph in a modified full-scale FS in Brazil. The results indicated that, as the feeding cycle days increased, there was an increase in the time of filtration and the internal storage of the liquid volume, probably due to a reduction in the filter permeability. Greater hydraulic gradient favoured the infiltration velocity, decreased the amount of liquid stored within the system, and delayed the loss of permeability. The sludge layer contributed to a momentary liquid retention, and also allowed greater evapotranspiration, reducing the liquid volume to be treated. The sludge deposit seemed to hinder the liquid percolation, especially at the end of the cycle, modifying the hydraulic conductivity of the filter as a whole. Intense rainfall events demonstrated that precipitation could modify the flow dynamics within the system.

The Tropical Atmospheric Energy Budget from the TRMM Perspective. Part II: Evaluating GCM Representations of the Sensitivity of Regional Energy and Water Cycles to the 1998–99 ENSO Cycle

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (18) ◽  
pp. 4548-4571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tristan S. L’Ecuyer ◽  
Graeme L. Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Regional Energy ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Tropical Pacific ◽  
Water Cycles

Abstract The impact of clouds and precipitation on the climate is a strong function of their spatial distribution and microphysical properties, characteristics that depend, in turn, on the environments in which they form. Simulating feedbacks between clouds, precipitation, and their surroundings therefore places an enormous burden on the parameterized physics used in current climate models. This paper uses multisensor observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) to assess the representation of the response of regional energy and water cycles in the tropical Pacific to the strong 1998 El Niño event in (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) AMIP-style simulations from the climate models that participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) most recent assessment report. The relationship between model errors and uncertainties in their representation of the impacts of clouds and precipitation on local energy budgets is also explored. With the exception of cloud radiative impacts that are often overestimated in both regions, the responses of atmospheric composition and heating to El Niño are generally captured in the east Pacific where the SST forcing is locally direct. Many models fail, however, to correctly predict the magnitude of induced trends in the west Pacific where the response depends more critically on accurate representation of the zonal atmospheric circulation. As a result, a majority of the models examined do not reproduce the apparent westward transport of energy in the equatorial Pacific during the 1998 El Niño event. Furthermore, the intermodel variability in the responses of precipitation, total heating, and vertical motion is often larger than the intrinsic ENSO signal itself, implying an inherent lack of predictive capability in the ensemble with regard to the response of the mean zonal atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific to ENSO. While ENSO does not necessarily provide a proxy for anthropogenic climate change, the results suggest that deficiencies remain in the representation of relationships between radiation, clouds, and precipitation in current climate models that cannot be ignored when interpreting their predictions of future climate.

scholarly journals Link between opaque cloud properties and atmospheric dynamics in observations and simulations of current climate in the Tropics, and impact on future predictions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Perpina ◽  
Vincent Noel ◽  
Helene Chepfer ◽  
Rodrigo Guzman ◽  
Artem Feofilov
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Radiative Effect ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Cloud Radiative Effect ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tropical Clouds

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Climate models predict a weakening of the tropical atmospheric circulation, more specifically a slowdown of Hadley and Walker circulations. Many climate models predict that global warming will have a major impact on cloud properties, including their geographic and vertical distribution. Climate feedbacks from clouds, which amplify warming when positive, are today the main source of uncertainty in climate forecasts. Tropical clouds play a key role in the redistribution of solar energy and their evolution will likely affect climate. Therefore, it is crucial to better understand how tropical clouds will evolve in a changing climate. Among cloud properties, the vertical distribution is sensitive to climate change. Active sensors integrated into satellites, such as CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization), make it possible to obtain a detailed vertical distribution of clouds. CALIOP measurements and calibration are more stable over time and more precise than passive remote sensing satellite detectors. CALIOP observations can be simulated in the atmospheric conditions predicted by climate models using lidar simulators such as COSP (&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;CFMIP Observation Simulator Package). Moreover, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;cloud properties directly drive the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE). Understanding how models predict cloud vertical distribution will evolve in the future has implications for how models predict the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) at the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) will evolve in the future. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The purpose of our study is to compare, firstly, based on satellite observations (GOCCP) and reanalyzes (ERA5), we will establish the relationship between atmospheric dynamic circulation, opaque cloud properties and TOA CRE. Then, we will compare this observed relationship with the one found in climate model simulations of current climate conditions (CESM1 and IPSL-CM6). Finally, we will identify how model biases in present climate conditions influence the cloud feedback spread between models in a warmer climate.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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