scholarly journals Using internet-based query and climate data to predict climate-sensitive infectious disease risks: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Author(s):  
Yuzhou Zhang ◽  
Hilary Bambrick ◽  
Kerrie Mengersen ◽  
Shilu Tong ◽  
Wenbiao Hu
2021 ◽  
pp. 074873042098732
Author(s):  
N. Kronfeld-Schor ◽  
T. J. Stevenson ◽  
S. Nickbakhsh ◽  
E. S. Schernhammer ◽  
X. C. Dopico ◽  
...  

Not 1 year has passed since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its emergence, great uncertainty has surrounded the potential for COVID-19 to establish as a seasonally recurrent disease. Many infectious diseases, including endemic human coronaviruses, vary across the year. They show a wide range of seasonal waveforms, timing (phase), and amplitudes, which differ depending on the geographical region. Drivers of such patterns are predominantly studied from an epidemiological perspective with a focus on weather and behavior, but complementary insights emerge from physiological studies of seasonality in animals, including humans. Thus, we take a multidisciplinary approach to integrate knowledge from usually distinct fields. First, we review epidemiological evidence of environmental and behavioral drivers of infectious disease seasonality. Subsequently, we take a chronobiological perspective and discuss within-host changes that may affect susceptibility, morbidity, and mortality from infectious diseases. Based on photoperiodic, circannual, and comparative human data, we not only identify promising future avenues but also highlight the need for further studies in animal models. Our preliminary assessment is that host immune seasonality warrants evaluation alongside weather and human behavior as factors that may contribute to COVID-19 seasonality, and that the relative importance of these drivers requires further investigation. A major challenge to predicting seasonality of infectious diseases are rapid, human-induced changes in the hitherto predictable seasonality of our planet, whose influence we review in a final outlook section. We conclude that a proactive multidisciplinary approach is warranted to predict, mitigate, and prevent seasonal infectious diseases in our complex, changing human-earth system.


2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Bouwknegt ◽  
A Havelaar ◽  
R Neslo ◽  
AM de Roda Husman ◽  
L Hogerwerf ◽  
...  

2006 ◽  
Vol 4 (S2) ◽  
pp. 1-2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca L. Calderon ◽  
Gunther Craun ◽  
Deborah A. Levy

2017 ◽  
Vol 125 (8) ◽  
pp. 087001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chin-Chi Kuo ◽  
Katherine A. Moon ◽  
Shu-Li Wang ◽  
Ellen Silbergeld ◽  
Ana Navas-Acien

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Liljas ◽  
Lenke Morath ◽  
Bo Burström ◽  
Pär Schön ◽  
Janne Agerholm

Abstract Background: Infectious disease outbreaks are common in care homes, often with substantial impact on the rates of infection and mortality of the residents, who primarily are older people vulnerable to infections. There is growing evidence that organisational characteristics of staff and facility might play a role in infection outbreaks however such evidence have not previously been systematically reviewed. Therefore, this systematic review aims to examine the impact of facility and staff characteristics on the risk of infectious disease outbreaks in care homes.Methods: Five databases were searched. Studies considered for inclusion were of any design reporting on an outbreak of any infectious disease in one or more care homes providing care for primarily older people with original data on: facility size, facility location (urban/rural), facility design, use of temporary hired staff, staff compartmentalizing, residence of staff, and/or nursing aides hours per resident. Retrieved studies were screened, assessed for quality, and analysed employing a narrative synthesis.Results: Sixteen studies (8 cohort studies, 6 cross-sectional studies, 2 case-control) were included from the search which generated 10,424 unique records. COVID-19 was the most commonly reported cause of outbreak (n=11). The other studies focused on influenza, respiratory and gastrointestinal outbreaks. Most studies reported on the impact of facility size (n=11) followed by facility design (n=4), use of temporary hired staff (n=3), facility location (n=2), staff compartmentalizing (n=2), nurse aides hours (n=2) and residence of staff (n=1). Findings suggest that urban location and larger facility size may be associated with greater risks of an infectious outbreak. Additionally, the risk of a larger outbreak seems lower in larger facilities. Whilst staff compartmentalizing may be associated with lower risk of an outbreak, staff residing in highly infected areas may be associated with greater risk of outbreak. The influence of facility design, use of temporary staff, and nurse aides hours remains unclear.Conclusions: This systematic review suggests that larger facilities have greater risks of infectious outbreaks, yet the risk of a larger outbreak seems lower in larger facilities. Due to lack of robust findings the impact of facility and staff characteristics on infectious outbreaks remain largely unknown.PROSPERO: CRD42020213585


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