scholarly journals Circulation pattern controls of wet days and dry days in Free State, South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Free State ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
South Indian

AbstractAtmospheric circulation is a vital process in the transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants around the globe. The variability of rainfall depends to some extent on the atmospheric circulation. This paper investigates synoptic situations in southern Africa that can be associated with wet days and dry days in Free State, South Africa, in addition to the underlying dynamics. Principal component analysis was applied to the T-mode matrix (variable is time series and observation is grid points at which the field was observed) of daily mean sea level pressure field from 1979 to 2018 in classifying the circulation patterns in southern Africa. 18 circulation types (CTs) were classified in the study region. From the linkage of the CTs to the observed rainfall data, from 11 stations in Free State, it was found that dominant austral winter and late austral autumn CTs have a higher probability of being associated with dry days in Free State. Dominant austral summer and late austral spring CTs were found to have a higher probability of being associated with wet days in Free State. Cyclonic/anti-cyclonic activity over the southwest Indian Ocean, explained to a good extent, the inter-seasonal variability of rainfall in Free State. The synoptic state associated with a stronger anti-cyclonic circulation at the western branch of the South Indian Ocean high-pressure, during austral summer, leading to enhanced low-level moisture transport by southeast winds was found to have the highest probability of being associated with above-average rainfall in most regions in Free State. On the other hand, the synoptic state associated with enhanced transport of cold dry air, by the extratropical westerlies, was found to have the highest probability of being associated with (winter) dryness in Free State.

Circulation pattern control of wet days and dry days in Free State, South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Free State ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Circulation Patterns

Abstract Atmospheric circulation is a vital process in the transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants around the globe. The variability of rainfall depends to some extent on the mechanisms of atmospheric circulation. This paper uses the concept of classifying the recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in southern Africa, and the linkage of the classified patterns to wet days and dry days in Free State, South Africa, for the analysis of how the probability of wet and dry events in Free State can be associated with specific synoptic situations, in addition to the underlying dynamics. Principal component analysis was applied to the T-mode matrix (column/variable is time series and row is grid points at which the field was observed) of daily mean sea level pressure field from 1979 to 2018 in classifying the recurrent circulation patterns in southern Africa. 18 circulation types (CTs) were classified in the study region. From the linkage of the CTs to the observed rainfall data, from 11 stations in Free State, it was found that dominant austral winter and late austral autumn CTs have a higher probability of bringing dry days to Free State. Dominant austral summer and late austral spring CTs were found to have a higher probability of bringing wet days to Free State. Cyclonic/anti-cyclonic activity over the southwest Indian Ocean, explained to a good extent, the inter-seasonal variability of rainfall in Free State. The synoptic state associated with a stronger anti-cyclonic circulation at the western branch of the South Indian Ocean high-pressure, during austral summer, leading to enhanced moisture transport by southeast winds was found to have the highest probability to bring above-average rainfall in most regions in Free State; while the synoptic state associated with enhanced transport of cold dry air, from the Benguela current, by the extratropical westerlies was found to be associated with the highest probability of (winter) dryness in Free State.

scholarly journals The sensitivity of the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge to large-scale wind anomalies

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 1455-1466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliet C. Hermes ◽  
Chris J. C. Reason
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
South Indian

Abstract Hermes, J. C., and Reason, C. J. C. 2009. The sensitivity of the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge to large-scale wind anomalies. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1455–1466. The Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean is important for regional climate, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, as well as upper-ocean nutrients and related phytoplankton and zooplankton densities. Subsurface variability in this region has been proved to influence the overlying sea surface temperatures, which in turn can influence eastern African rainfall. There is evidence that austral summers with a deeper (shallower) SCTR tend to have more (less) tropical cyclone (TC) days in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The importance of this relationship was underlined during the 2006/2007 austral summer, when areas of Madagascar and central Mozambique experienced devastating floods, because of ten named tropical storms, including several intense TCs, effecting on these areas. At the same time, the SCTR during this season was anomalously deep, partly because of a downwelling Rossby wave that propagated across the South Indian Ocean during the previous austral winter/spring. In this paper, a regional ocean model is used to investigate the effect of remote forcing on this region and to study the sensitivity of the SCTR to changes in the large-scale winds over the South Indian Ocean, with a particular focus on the events of the 2006/2007 austral summer.

Climate of Southern Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.J.C. Reason
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
South Indian ◽  
African Climate ◽  
Land Mass

Southern Africa extends from the equator to about 34°S and is essentially a narrow, peninsular land mass bordered to its south, west, and east by oceans. Its termination in the mid-ocean subtropics has important consequences for regional climate, since it allows the strongest western boundary current in the world ocean (warm Agulhas Current) to be in close proximity to an intense eastern boundary upwelling current (cold Benguela Current). Unlike other western boundary currents, the Agulhas retroflects south of the land mass and flows back into the South Indian Ocean, thereby leading to a large area of anomalously warm water south of South Africa which may influence storm development over the southern part of the land mass. Two other unique regional ocean features imprint on the climate of southern Africa—the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) and the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR). The former is important for the development of Benguela Niños and flood events over southwestern Africa, while the SCTR influences Madden-Julian Oscillation and tropical cyclone activity in the western Indian Ocean. In addition to South Atlantic and South Indian Ocean influences, there are climatic implications of the neighboring Southern Ocean. Along with Benguela Niños, the southern African climate is strongly impacted by ENSO and to lesser extent by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea-surface temperature (SST) dipole events in the Indian and South Atlantic Oceans. The regional land–sea distribution leads to a highly variable climate on a range of scales that is still not well understood due to its complexity and its sensitivity to a number of different drivers. Strong and variable gradients in surface characteristics exist not only in the neighboring oceans but also in several aspects of the land mass, and these all influence the regional climate and its interactions with climate modes of variability. Much of the interior of southern Africa consists of a plateau 1 to 1.5 km high and a narrow coastal belt that is particularly mountainous in South Africa, leading to sharp topographic gradients. The topography is able to influence the track and development of many weather systems, leading to marked gradients in rainfall and vegetation across southern Africa. The presence of the large island of Madagascar, itself a region of strong topographic and rainfall gradients, has consequences for the climate of the mainland by reducing the impact of the moist trade winds on the Mozambique coast and the likelihood of tropical cyclone landfall there. It is also likely that at least some of the relativity aridity of the Limpopo region in northern South Africa/southern Zimbabwe results from the location of Madagascar in the southwestern Indian Ocean. While leading to challenges in understanding its climate variability and change, the complex geography of southern Africa offers a very useful test bed for improving the global models used in many institutions for climate prediction. Thus, research into the relative shortcomings of the models in the southern African region may lead not only to better understanding of southern African climate but also to enhanced capability to predict climate globally.

scholarly journals Revisiting the 1992 severe drought episode in South Africa: the role of El Niño in the anomalies of atmospheric circulation types in Africa south of the equator

2021 ◽  
Vol 146 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 723-740
Author(s):  
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
High Pressure ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The South ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Drought Episode ◽  
South Indian

AbstractDuring strong El Niño events, below-average rainfall is expected in large parts of southern Africa. The 1992 El Niño season was associated with one of the worst drought episodes in large parts of South Africa. Using reanalysis data set from NCEP-NCAR, this study examined circulation types (CTs) in Africa south of the equator that are statistically related to the El Niño signal in the southwest Indian Ocean and the implication of this relationship during the 1992 drought episode in South Africa. A statistically significant correlation was found between the above-average Nino 3.4 index and a CT that features widespread cyclonic activity in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean, coupled with a weaker state of the south Indian Ocean high-pressure. During the analysis period, it was found that the El Niño signal enhanced the amplitude of the aforementioned CT. The impacts of the El Niño signal on CTs in southern Africa, which could have contributed to the 1992 severe drought episode in South Africa, were reflected in (i) robust decrease in the frequency of occurrence of the austral summer climatology pattern of atmospheric circulation that favors southeasterly moisture fluxes, advected by the South Indian Ocean high-pressure; (ii) modulation of easterly moisture fluxes, advected by the South Atlantic Ocean high-pressure, ridging south of South Africa; (iii) and enhancement of the amplitude of CTs that both enhances subsidence over South Africa, and associated with the dominance of westerlies across the Agulhas current. Under the ssp585 scenario, the analyzed climate models suggested that the impact of radiative heating on the CT significantly related to El Niño might result in an anomalous increase in surface pressure at the eastern parts of South Africa.

scholarly journals Variability in the Mozambique Channel Trough and Impacts on Southeast African Rainfall

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 749-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rondrotiana Barimalala ◽  
Ross C. Blamey ◽  
Fabien Desbiolles ◽  
Chris J. C. Reason
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Western Indian Ocean ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Mozambique Channel ◽  
Mascarene High ◽  
South Indian

AbstractThe Mozambique Channel trough (MCT) is a cyclonic region prominent in austral summer in the central and southern Mozambique Channel. It first becomes evident in December with a peak in strength in February when the Mozambique Channel is warmest and the Mascarene high (MH) is located farthest southeast in the Indian Ocean basin. The strength and the timing of the mean MCT are linked to that of the cross-equatorial northeasterly monsoon in the tropical western Indian Ocean, which curves as northwesterlies toward northern Madagascar. The interannual variability in the MCT is associated with moist convection over the Mozambique Channel and is modulated by the location of the warm sea surface temperatures in the south Indian Ocean. Variability of the MCT shows a strong relationship with the equatorial westerlies north of Madagascar and the latitudinal extension of the MH. Summers with strong MCT activity are characterized by a prominent cyclonic circulation over the Mozambique Channel, extending to the midlatitudes. These are favorable for the development of tropical–extratropical cloud bands over the southwestern Indian Ocean and trigger an increase in rainfall over the ocean but a decrease over the southern African mainland. Most years with a weak MCT are associated with strong positive south Indian Ocean subtropical dipole events, during which the subcontinent tends to receive more rainfall whereas Madagascar and northern Mozambique are anomalously dry.

scholarly journals The Role of Mesoscale Convective Complexes in Southern Africa Summer Rainfall

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1654-1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. C. Blamey ◽  
C. J. C. Reason
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract A combination of numerous factors, including geographic position, regional orography, and local sea surface temperatures, means that subtropical southern Africa experiences considerable spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and is prone to both frequent flooding and drought events. One system that may contribute to rainfall variability in the region is the mesoscale convective complex (MCC). In this study, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data is used to document the precipitation produced by MCCs over southern Africa for the 1998–2006 period. Most of the rainfall associated with MCCs is found to occur over central Mozambique, extending southward to eastern South Africa. High precipitation totals associated with these systems also occur over the neighboring southwest Indian Ocean, particularly off the northeast coast of South Africa. MCCs are found to contribute up to 20% of the total summer rainfall (November–March) in parts of the eastern region of southern Africa. If the month of March is excluded from the analysis, then the contribution increases up to 24%. In general, the MCC summer rainfall contribution for most of the eastern region is approximately between 8% and 16%. Over the western interior and Botswana and Namibia, the MCC contribution is much less (<6%). It is also evident that there is considerable interannual variability associated with the contribution that these systems make to the total warm season rainfall.

scholarly journals Effect of deep convection on the tropical tropopause layer composition over the southwest Indian Ocean during austral summer

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (17) ◽  
pp. 10565-10586
Author(s):  
Stephanie Evan ◽  
Jerome Brioude ◽  
Karen Rosenlof ◽  
Sean M. Davis ◽  
Holger Vömel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Lagrangian Model ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Tropopause Region ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Balloon-borne measurements of cryogenic frost-point hygrometer (CFH) water vapor, ozone and temperature and water vapor lidar measurements from the Maïdo Observatory on Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) were used to study tropical cyclones' influence on tropical tropopause layer (TTL) composition. The balloon launches were specifically planned using a Lagrangian model and Meteosat-7 infrared images to sample the convective outflow from tropical storm (TS) Corentin on 25 January 2016 and tropical cyclone (TC) Enawo on 3 March 2017. Comparing the CFH profile to Aura's Microwave Limb Sounder's (MLS) monthly climatologies, water vapor anomalies were identified. Positive anomalies of water vapor and temperature, and negative anomalies of ozone between 12 and 15 km in altitude (247 to 121 hPa), originated from convectively active regions of TS Corentin and TC Enawo 1 d before the planned balloon launches according to the Lagrangian trajectories. Near the tropopause region, air masses on 25 January 2016 were anomalously dry around 100 hPa and were traced back to TS Corentin's active convective region where cirrus clouds and deep convective clouds may have dried the layer. An anomalously wet layer around 68 hPa was traced back to the southeast Indian Ocean where a monthly water vapor anomaly of 0.5 ppmv was observed. In contrast, no water vapor anomaly was found near or above the tropopause region on 3 March 2017 over Maïdo as the tropopause region was not downwind of TC Enawo. This study compares and contrasts the impact of two tropical cyclones on the humidification of the TTL over the SWIO. It also demonstrates the need for accurate balloon-borne measurements of water vapor, ozone and aerosols in regions where TTL in situ observations are sparse.

scholarly journals The South Atlantic–South Indian Ocean Pattern: a Zonally Oriented Teleconnection along the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Jet in Austral Summer

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongda Lin
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber

Extratropical teleconnections significantly affect the climate in subtropical and mid-latitude regions. Understanding the variability of atmospheric teleconnection in the Southern Hemisphere, however, is still limited in contrast with the well-documented counterpart in the Northern Hemisphere. This study investigates the interannual variability of mid-latitude circulation in the Southern Hemisphere in austral summer based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset during 1980–2016. A stationary mid-latitude teleconnection is revealed along the strong Southern Hemisphere westerly jet over the South Atlantic and South Indian Ocean (SAIO). The zonally oriented SAIO pattern represents the first EOF mode of interannual variability of meridional winds at 200 hPa over the region, with a vertical barotropic structure and a zonal wavenumber of 4. It significantly modulates interannual climate variations in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere in austral summer, especially the opposite change in rainfall and surface air temperature between Northwest and Southeast Australia. The SAIO pattern can be efficiently triggered by divergences over mid-latitude South America and the southwest South Atlantic, near the entrance of the westerly jet, which is probably related to the zonal shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The triggered wave train is then trapped within the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet waveguide and propagates eastward until it diverts northeastward towards Australia at the jet exit, in addition to portion of which curving equatorward at approximately 50° E towards the southwest Indian Ocean.

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