Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 134 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 707-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Liguang Wu ◽  
G. B. Raga
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Decadal Change ◽  
Cyclone Activity

scholarly journals Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 5497-5509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Strongly Correlated

Abstract Revised estimates of kinetic energy production by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific are presented. These show considerable variability on interannual-to-multidecadal time scales. In the Atlantic, variability on time scales of a few years and more is strongly correlated with tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature, while in the western North Pacific, this correlation, while still present, is considerably weaker. Using a combination of basic theory and empirical statistical analysis, it is shown that much of the variability in both ocean basins can be explained by variations in potential intensity, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear. Potential intensity variations are in turn factored into components related to variations in net surface radiation, thermodynamic efficiency, and average surface wind speed. In the Atlantic, potential intensity, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear strongly covary and are also highly correlated with sea surface temperature, at least during the period in which reanalysis products are considered reliable. In the Pacific, the three factors are not strongly correlated. The relative contributions of the three factors are quantified, and implications for future trends and variability of tropical cyclone activity are discussed.

scholarly journals On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (24) ◽  
pp. 9678-9696 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis-Philippe Caron ◽  
Mathieu Boudreault ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014.

scholarly journals Response of Tropical Cyclone Tracks to Sea Surface Temperature in the Western North Pacific

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1955-1975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kotaro Katsube ◽  
Masaru Inatsu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Linear Response ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The West

Abstract A set of short-term experiments using a regional atmospheric model (RAM) were carried out to investigate the response of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific. For 10 selected TC cases occurring during 2002–07, a warm and a cold run are performed with 2 and −2 K added to the SSTs uniformly over the model domain, respectively. The cases can be classified into three groups in terms of recurvature: recurved tracks in the warm and cold runs, a recurved track in the warm run and a nonrecurved track in the cold run, and nonrecurved tracks in both runs. Commonly the warm run produced northward movement of the TC faster than the cold run. The rapid northward migration can be mainly explained by the result that cyclonic circulation to the west of the TC is found in the steering flow in the warm run and it is not in the cold run. The beta effect is also activated under the warm SST environment. For the typical TC cases, a linear baroclinic model experiment is performed to examine how the cyclonic circulation is intensified in the warm run. The stationary linear response to diabatic heating obtained from the RAM experiment reveals that the intensified TC by the warm SST excites the cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere to the west of the forcing position. The vorticity and thermodynamic equation analysis shows the detailed mechanism. The time scale of the linear response and the teleconnection are also discussed.

scholarly journals The Roles of Wind Shear and Thermal Stratification in Past and Projected Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (17) ◽  
pp. 4723-4734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen T. Garner ◽  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Thomas Knutson ◽  
Joseph Sirutis
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has trended upward in recent decades. The increase coincides with favorable changes in local sea surface temperature and other environmental indices, principally associated with vertical shear and the thermodynamic profile. The relative importance of these environmental factors has not been firmly established. A recent study using a high-resolution dynamical downscaling model has captured both the trend and interannual variations in Atlantic storm frequency with considerable fidelity. In the present work, this downscaling framework is used to assess the importance of the large-scale thermodynamic environment relative to other factors influencing Atlantic tropical storms. Separate assessments are done for the recent multidecadal trend (1980–2006) and a model-projected global warming environment for the late 21st century. For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal-mean thermodynamic environment (sea surface temperature and atmospheric temperature profile at fixed relative humidity) account for more than half of the observed increase in tropical cyclone frequency, with other seasonal-mean changes (including vertical shear) having a somewhat smaller combined effect. In contrast, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the warm climate scenario appears to be driven mostly by increased seasonal-mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean rather than by changes in the SST and thermodynamic profile.

scholarly journals The Influence of Large-Scale Environment on the Extremely Active Tropical Cyclone Activity in November 2019 over the Western North Pacific

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 501
Author(s):  
Mengying Shi ◽  
Sulei Wang ◽  
Xiaoxu Qi ◽  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Yu Shu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Formation Mechanisms

In November 2019, tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific reached its record high. In this study, the possible causes and formation mechanisms of that record high TC frequency are investigated by analyzing the effect of large-scale environmental factors. A comparison between the extremely active TC years and extremely inactive TC years is performed to show the importance of the large-scale environment. The contributions of several dynamic and thermodynamic environmental factors are examined on the basis of two genesis potential indexes and the box difference index that can measure the relative contributions of large-scale environmental factors to the change in TC genesis frequency. Results indicate that dynamical factors played a more important role in TC genesis in November 2019 than thermodynamic factors. The main contributions were from enhanced low-level vorticity and strong upward motion accompanied by positive anomalies in local sea surface temperature, while the minor contribution was from changes in vertical wind shear. Changes in these large-scale environmental factors are possibly related to sea surface temperature anomalies over the Pacific (e.g., strong Pacific meridional mode).

scholarly journals Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate on Sea Surface Temperature, Storm Intensity, and Size in the Western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 523-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Xu ◽  
Yuqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Outer Core ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Storm Intensity

Abstract This study extends the statistical analysis on the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate (IR) on sea surface temperature (SST), storm initial intensity (maximum sustained surface wind speed Vmax), and storm size, in terms of the radius of maximum wind (RMW), the radius of 34-kt (AR34; 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) wind, and the outer-core wind skirt parameter DR34 (= AR34 − RMW), for North Atlantic TCs to western North Pacific (WNP) TCs during 1982–2015. Results show that the relationship between the TC maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) and SST also exists in the WNP. TC IR depends strongly on TC intensity and structure, consistent with the findings for North Atlantic TCs. TC IR is positively (negatively) correlated with storm intensity when Vmax is below (above) 70 kt and negatively correlated with the RMW. Rapid intensification (RI) occurs only in a relatively narrow range of parameter space in storm intensity and both inner- and outer-core sizes, with the highest IR appearing for Vmax = 70 kt, RMW ≦ 40 km, AR34 = 150 km, and DR34 = 100 km. The highest frequency of occurrence of intensifying TCs occurs for Vmax ~ 40–60 kt, RMW ~ 20–60 km, AR34 = 200 km, and DR34 = 120 km. Overall, these values are very similar to those for TCs in the North Atlantic. These results suggest the need for the realistic initialization of TC structure in numerical models and the inclusion of size parameters in statistical TC intensity prediction schemes.

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