scholarly journals On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (24) ◽  
pp. 9678-9696 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis-Philippe Caron ◽  
Mathieu Boudreault ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014.

scholarly journals The Roles of Wind Shear and Thermal Stratification in Past and Projected Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (17) ◽  
pp. 4723-4734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen T. Garner ◽  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Thomas Knutson ◽  
Joseph Sirutis
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has trended upward in recent decades. The increase coincides with favorable changes in local sea surface temperature and other environmental indices, principally associated with vertical shear and the thermodynamic profile. The relative importance of these environmental factors has not been firmly established. A recent study using a high-resolution dynamical downscaling model has captured both the trend and interannual variations in Atlantic storm frequency with considerable fidelity. In the present work, this downscaling framework is used to assess the importance of the large-scale thermodynamic environment relative to other factors influencing Atlantic tropical storms. Separate assessments are done for the recent multidecadal trend (1980–2006) and a model-projected global warming environment for the late 21st century. For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal-mean thermodynamic environment (sea surface temperature and atmospheric temperature profile at fixed relative humidity) account for more than half of the observed increase in tropical cyclone frequency, with other seasonal-mean changes (including vertical shear) having a somewhat smaller combined effect. In contrast, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the warm climate scenario appears to be driven mostly by increased seasonal-mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean rather than by changes in the SST and thermodynamic profile.

scholarly journals Changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 124052
Author(s):  
Banglin Zhang ◽  
Renhe Zhang ◽  
Rachel T Pinker ◽  
Yerong Feng ◽  
Changchun Nie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Temperature Environment ◽  
Warming World

scholarly journals The impact of climate model sea surface temperature biases on tropical cyclone simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 173-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Ching Hsu ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
Ping Chang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4 Index: a comparison

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
Miguel Tasambay-Salazar ◽  
María José OrtizBeviá ◽  
Antonio RuizdeElvira ◽  
Francisco José Alvarez-García
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The World

Abstract. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the main source of the predictability skill in many regions of the world for seasonal and interannual timescales. Longer lead predictability experiments of Niño3.4 Index using simple statistical linear models have shown an important skill loss at longer lead times when the targeted season is summer or autumn. We develop different versions of the model substituting some its variables with others that contain tropical or extratropical information, produce a number of hindcasts with these models using two different predictions schemes and cross validate them. We have identified different sets of tropical or extratropical predictors, which can provide useful values of potential skill. We try to find out the sources of the predictability by comparing the sea surface temperature (SST) and heat content (HC) anomalous fields produced by the successful predictors for the 1980–2012 period. We observe that where tropical predictors are used the prediction reproduces only the equatorial characteristics of the warming (cooling). However, where extratropical predictors are included, the predictions are able to simulate the absorbed warming in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).

scholarly journals Trends in sea surface temperature of the Sea of Okhotsk and adjacent water areas by satellite data in 1998–2017

2019 ◽  
pp. 55-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. Lozhkin ◽  
G. V. Shevchenko
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Of Okhotsk ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Water Area ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Sea Of Okhotsk ◽  
Adjacent Water ◽  
Winter Convection

For the Sea of Okhotsk and the adjacent water areas, a series of mean monthly sea surface temperature values were computed from satellite measurements of 20 years (1998–2017). In each space cell, the coefficients of the linear trend are determined by the method of least squares. Such coefficients were calculated for each month separately, for the whole series as a whole, and also for average values of the temperature for the season. The relationship of these coefficients to the observed decrease in ice extent in the water area of the Sea of Okhotsk during the last twenty years has been analyzed. It is shown that the heat content of the surface layer in this basin decreases, most significantly in its northern and western parts. This trend is especially pronounced in the spring, which may be due to a decrease in ice cover and a more significant cooling of the waters due to winter convection.

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