scholarly journals A spatial and temporal drought risk assessment of three major tree species in Britain using probabilistic climate change projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (4) ◽  
pp. 791-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Petr ◽  
Luc G. J. Boerboom ◽  
Anne van der Veen ◽  
Duncan Ray
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Climate Change Projections

scholarly journals Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuo Li ◽  
Jie Pan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

scholarly journals Study on the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Wang ◽  
Jingyi Jiang ◽  
Qing Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Drought Hazard

Abstract. Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed great threaten to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. Results of the drought hazard intensity index showed that the risk of agricultural drought displayed a negative correlation with the precipitation and kept rising from 1966 to 2011. Risk assessments of yield loss ratio shows that physical vulnerability curve has magnify and reduce function to drought hazard. So improving the capacity of maize to resist drought can help them adapt to drought hazard. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China had great sensitivity to climate change and high probability for severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understanding the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to the climate change.

scholarly journals Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. e0174045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Candida F. Dewes ◽  
Imtiaz Rangwala ◽  
Joseph J. Barsugli ◽  
Michael T. Hobbins ◽  
Sanjiv Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Methodological Choices

Including climate change projections in probabilistic flood risk assessment

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.J. Ward ◽  
S.C. van Pelt ◽  
O. de Keizer ◽  
J.C.J.H. Aerts ◽  
J.J. Beersma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Projections

Risk assessment of dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections

Erdkunde ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Margarete Thomas ◽  
Dominik Fischer ◽  
Stefanie Fleischmann ◽  
Torsten Bittner ◽  
Carl Beierkuhnlein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Dengue Virus ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Spatio Temporal

scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment and Estimation in Vulnerable Eco-Regions of China: Under the Background of Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Tian Xian ◽  
Runze Zhao ◽  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Junggar Basin ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Drought Disaster

Drought risk analysis can help improve disaster management techniques, thereby reducing potential drought risk under the impacts of climate change. This study analyses observed and model-simulated spatial patterns of changes in drought risk in vulnerable eco-regions in China during 1988–2017 and 2020–2050 using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. To perform a risk assessment and estimation of a drought disaster, three subsystems—namely hazard, vulnerability and exposure—are assessed in terms of the effects of climate change since the middle of the 21st century: (i) Hazards, represented by climate anomalies related to the drought process, such as changes in rainfall averages, temperature averages and evaporation averages; (ii) vulnerability, encompassing land use and mutual transposition between them; (iii) exposure, consisting of socioeconomic, demographic, and farming. The results demonstrated that high hazards continue to be located in the arid zone, high vulnerability levels occur in the Junggar Basin and Inner Mongolia Plateau, and high exposure levels occur Loess Plateau and southern coastal area. In this way, the results provide exhaustive measures for proactive drought risk management and mitigation strategies.

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