Rice drought risk assessment under climate change: Based on physical vulnerability a quantitative assessment method

2021 ◽  
Vol 751 ◽  
pp. 141481
Author(s):  
Hao Guo ◽  
Ran Wang ◽  
Gregg M. Garfin ◽  
Anyu Zhang ◽  
Degen Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Physical Vulnerability

scholarly journals Study on the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Wang ◽  
Jingyi Jiang ◽  
Qing Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Drought Hazard

Abstract. Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed great threaten to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. Results of the drought hazard intensity index showed that the risk of agricultural drought displayed a negative correlation with the precipitation and kept rising from 1966 to 2011. Risk assessments of yield loss ratio shows that physical vulnerability curve has magnify and reduce function to drought hazard. So improving the capacity of maize to resist drought can help them adapt to drought hazard. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China had great sensitivity to climate change and high probability for severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understanding the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to the climate change.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuo Li ◽  
Jie Pan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

scholarly journals The drought risk of maize in the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2697-2711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Wang ◽  
Jingyi Jiang ◽  
Qing Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Spring Maize

Abstract. Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.

scholarly journals Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. e0174045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Candida F. Dewes ◽  
Imtiaz Rangwala ◽  
Joseph J. Barsugli ◽  
Michael T. Hobbins ◽  
Sanjiv Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Methodological Choices

Information Security Risk Assessment Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 656 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Xiang He ◽  
Xin An
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Information Security Risk ◽  
Security Risk Assessment ◽  
Hierarchy Process

<p>Information security risk assessment was an important component of information systems security engineering and the selection of assessment method had a direct impact on the final results of the assessment. But there were too many elements in the process of information security risk assessment. How to find the optimal elements from many elements to simplify the calculation of risk value and provide a strong basis for taking relevant measures, which was a problem needed to be solved. In addition, the reliability of the risk assessment results could not be guaranteed only through a single qualitative or quantitative assessment method. By Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the relative weight of elements related to information security risk could be calculated. Then the optimal indicators, which provided a strong basis for taking relevant measures, could be selected by sorting the weights of elements to reduce the number of indicators. Moreover, Analytic Hierarchy Process, a method of the combination of qualitative and quantitative assessment methods, could overcome the shortcomings of single qualitative or quantitative assessment method.</p>

scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment and Estimation in Vulnerable Eco-Regions of China: Under the Background of Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Tian Xian ◽  
Runze Zhao ◽  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Junggar Basin ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Drought Disaster

Drought risk analysis can help improve disaster management techniques, thereby reducing potential drought risk under the impacts of climate change. This study analyses observed and model-simulated spatial patterns of changes in drought risk in vulnerable eco-regions in China during 1988–2017 and 2020–2050 using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. To perform a risk assessment and estimation of a drought disaster, three subsystems—namely hazard, vulnerability and exposure—are assessed in terms of the effects of climate change since the middle of the 21st century: (i) Hazards, represented by climate anomalies related to the drought process, such as changes in rainfall averages, temperature averages and evaporation averages; (ii) vulnerability, encompassing land use and mutual transposition between them; (iii) exposure, consisting of socioeconomic, demographic, and farming. The results demonstrated that high hazards continue to be located in the arid zone, high vulnerability levels occur in the Junggar Basin and Inner Mongolia Plateau, and high exposure levels occur Loess Plateau and southern coastal area. In this way, the results provide exhaustive measures for proactive drought risk management and mitigation strategies.

Risk Assessment and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Strategies for Large-Scale Sediment Disasters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shin-Ping Lee ◽  
Yuan-Jung Tsai ◽  
Yun-Chung Tsang ◽  
Ching-Ya Tsai ◽  
Shang-Ming Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Typhoon Morakot ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Landslides And Debris Flows ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Under climate change impact, the frequency of extreme hydrological events increases. The occurrence of extreme rainfall events may lead to large-scale flooding or sediment disasters resulting in serious property damage and casualties. Large-scale sediment disasters include large-scale landslides and debris flows which are the main types of disasters causing casualties. In Taiwan, during Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the long duration and high-intensity rainfall led to a large-scale sediment disaster resulting in heavy casualties. A disaster with certain magnitude and complexity cannot be coped with a single disaster management approach. In this study, a risk assessment method considering climate change impacts proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was adopted. By analyzing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators of large-scale sediment disasters in Xinfa catchment of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, a disaster risk adaptation strategy was proposed based on the impact of disaster factors.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Two scenarios were applied for the catchment sediment hazards risk assessments including 50-year recurrence period (high frequency and low impact) and extreme scenario (low frequency and high impact). Multiple factors for hazard (impact area of landslides and debris flows), exposure (lifeline roads and land use intensity), and vulnerability (disaster prevention and relief resources and settlement population characteristics) assessments were considered. The correlation factor selection and weighting analysis was calibrated by the 2009 Typhoon Morakot event. All disaster-recorded locations were above moderate risk indicating that the risk assessment method was reasonable. A risk map for Xinfa catchment was completed based on the validated risk assessment model to identify the high-risk settlements. After analyzing the spatial characteristics and disaster risk impact factors of high-risk settlements, both software and hardware disaster prevention measures and adaptation strategies were suggested. According to the analyzed results, although the hardware measures were effective in reducing sediment hazards generally, under extreme hydrologic events, those measures could be ineffective due to limited protection capacity of the engineering facilities. Hence, reducing exposure and vulnerability is essential to deal with the impact of extreme events.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Keywords&lt;/strong&gt;: &lt;strong&gt;Large-scale sediment disasters, Risk assessment, Adaptation strategies&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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