A Fractal Simulation Method for Simulating the Resource Abundance of Oil and Gas and Its Application

In this study, a fractal simulation method for simulating resource abundance is proposed based on the evaluation results of the exploration risk and prediction technology for the spatial distribution of oil and gas resources at home and abroad. In addition, a key technical workflow for simulating resource abundance was developed. Furthermore, the model for predicting resource abundance has been modified, and the objective functions for conditional simulation have been improved. A series of prediction technologies for predicting the spatial distribution of oil and gas resources have been developed, and the difficulties in visualizing the exploration risks and predicting the spatial distribution of oil and gas resources have been solved. Prediction technologies have been applied to the Jurassic Sangonghe Formation in the hinterland of the Junggar Basin, and good results have been obtained. The results indicated that within the known area, taking the known abundance as the constraint condition, the coincidence rate of the simulated quantities of the original model and the improved model with the actual reserves reached 99.98% after the conditional simulation, indicating that the conditional simulation was effective. In addition, with the improved model, the predicted remaining resources are 0.7899$$\times 10^{8}$$ × 10 8 t, which is 65% of the discovered reserves, and the original model predicts that the remaining resources are 3.5033$$\,\times \,10^{8}$$ × 10 8 t, which is 2.89 times greater than the discovered reserves. Compared with the area in the middle stage of exploration, the results of the improved model are more consistent, and the results of the original model are obviously larger, indicating that the improved model has a good predictive effect for the unknown area. Finally, according to the risk probability and remaining resource distribution, the favorable areas for exploration were optimized as follows: the neighborhood of the triangular area formed by Well Lunan1, Well Shimo1, and Well Shi008, the area near Well Mo11, the area east of Well Mo5, the area west of Well Pen7, the area southwest of Well Shidong1, and the surroundings, as well as the area north of Well Fang2. The application results show that these prediction technologies are effective and can provide important reference and decision-making for resource evaluation and target optimization.

Shifts in Dry-Wet Climate Regions over China and Its Related Climate Factors between 1960–1989 and 1990–2019

The shifts in dry-wet climate regions are a natural response to climate change and have a profound impact on the regional agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper, we divided China into four dry-wet climate regions, i.e., arid, semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid regions, based on the humidity index (HI). A comparison of the two 30-year periods, i.e., 1960–1989 and 1990–2019, revealed that there was a shift in climate type in each dry-wet climate region, with six newly formed transitions, and the total area of the shifts to wetter conditions was more than two times larger than that of the shifts to drier conditions. Interestingly, the shifts to drier types were basically distributed in the monsoon region (east of 100∘ E) and especially concentrated in the North China Plain where agricultural development relies heavily on irrigation, which would increase the challenges in dealing with water shortage and food production security under a warming climate. The transitions to wetter types were mainly distributed in western China (west of 100∘ E), and most areas of the Junggar Basin have changed from arid to semi-arid region, which should benefit the local agricultural production and ecological environment to some extent. Based on a contribution analysis method, we further quantified the impacts of each climate factor on HI changes. Our results demonstrated that the dominant factor controlling HI changes in the six newly formed transition regions was P, followed by air temperature (Ta). In the non-transition zones of the arid and semi-arid regions, an increase in P dominated the increase of HI. However, in the non-transition zones of the semi-humid and humid region with a more humid background climate, the thermal factors (e.g., Ta, and net radiation (Rn)) contributed more than or equivalent to the contribution of P to HI change. These findings can provide scientific reference for water resources management and sustainable agricultural development in the context of climate change.

Sedimentary Characteristics Analysis and Sedimentary Facies Prediction of Jurassic Strata in the Northwest Margin of Junggar Basin—Covering the W105 Well Region in the Wuerhe Area

As the northwestern area of the Junggar Basin is a key area for oil and gas exploration, the sedimentary facies of the Jurassic formations in the Wuerhe area has long been a focus of research. The target strata are Jurassic strata, including five formations: the Lower Jurassic Badaowan and Sangonghe, the Middle Jurassic Xishanyao and Toutunhe and the Upper Jurassic Qigu. Disputes over the are sedimentary facies division exist in this area. Considering the W105 well region in this area as an example, the overall sedimentary facies of single-well logging facies is analyzed and then expanded to two cross-sections and characterized. Based on previous studies, a detailed overview of the regional stratigraphy is obtained by well logs and other data. Then, two cross-sections are selected and analyzed. The single-well and continuous-well facies of 10 wells in the sections are analyzed to grasp the sand bodies’ spatial distribution. Finally, a planar contour map of the net to gross ratio is mapped to analyze the sources and the distribution of the sand bodies in each period. The sedimentary facies map is also mapped to predict the sedimentary evolution. The results show that the sedimentary facies of the Badaowan Formation in the study area was an underwater distributary channel of the fan-delta front, and the sand body spread continuously from northwest to southeast. The Sangonghe Formation entered a lake transgression period with a rising water level, at which time shore–shallow lacustrine deposits were widespread throughout the region. The period of the Xishanyao Formation entered a regression period, the northwest region was tectonically uplifted, and the central and southeastern regions facies were dominated by the fan-delta front and shallow lacustrine. During the Toutunhe Formation period, the northwest region continued to uplift and was dominated by delta plain facies. During the period of the Qigu Formation, the thickness of stratigraphic erosion reached its maximum, and the non-erosion area of the study area was mainly deposited by the fan-delta plain. Overall, the Jurassic system in the W105 well area is a fan delta–lacustrine–fan delta sedimentary system.

Sedimentary and Source-to-Sink Evolution of Intracontinental Basins: Implications for tectonic and Climate Evolution in the Late Mesozoic (Southern Junggar Basin, NW China)

Sedimentary investigations, petrography, heavy mineral and conglomerate component analyses, and detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology were conducted to reconstruct the sedimentary and source-to-sink evolution of the Southern Junggar Basin, an intracontinental basin in the late Mesozoic. A paludal deltaic environment evolved into a fluvial environment, and abruptly prograded into alluvial fan and aeolian environments in the Late Jurassic, which was replaced by fan deltaic and lacustrine environments in the Early Cretaceous. Three source-to-sink systems were identified, according to different source-to-sink system features. In the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Orogenic Belt, the North Tianshan Orogenic Belt mainly provided sediments in the Late Jurassic. The North Tianshan and Central Tianshan Orogenic Belt both supplied sediments in the Early Cretaceous. In the northern piedmont of the Bogda Orogenic Belt, the Bogda Orogenic Belt was constantly the primary provenance, and the Tianshan Orogenic Belt also provided sediments. Sediment recycling occurred in the basin margin in the Late Jurassic and more metamorphic rocks were denudated in the Early Cretaceous. The source-to-sink system shrank in the Late Jurassic and expanded in the Early Cretaceous. This source-to-sink evolution and the conglomerates in the Kalazha Formation with seismite structures responded to the aridification in the Late Jurassic, the uplift of the Bogda and Tianshan Orogenic Belts in the Late Jurassic, and the exhumation of the Bogda and Tianshan Orogenic Belts in the Early Cretaceous.

Rock Mechanical Properties and Breakdown Pressure of High-Temperature and High-Pressure Reservoirs in the Southern Margin of Junggar Basin

The mechanical properties of the high-temperature and high-pressure reservoirs in the southern margin of Junggar Basin have not been clearly understood, which correspondingly results in uncertainties when predicting the breakdown pressure. To address this issue, firstly, rock mechanical experiments under high temperature, high confining pressure, and high pore pressure were carried out. Secondly, empirical formulas related to the transformation of dynamic and static mechanical parameters in the regional strata were proposed. Finally, the existing prediction model for the formation breakdown pressure was improved by taking the wellbore seepage and thermal stress into consideration. Results show that under the reservoir condition of high temperature and high pressure, the rock sample tends to form closed shear cracks. High temperature causes thermal damages and the reduction of the compressive strength and elastic modulus, while the combined effects of high confining pressure and pore pressure enhance the compressive strength and plasticity of the rock sample simultaneously. Based on the correlation analysis, it is found that the static elastic modulus is linearly related to the dynamic value, while static Poisson’s ratio is a quadratic function of the dynamic value. These fitting functions can be used to obtain the profiles of static elastic modulus and Poisson’s ratio based on their dynamic values from the logging interpretation. Besides, the improved prediction model for the rock breakdown pressure can yield more accurate results indicated by the error less than 2%. Therefore, the proposed breakdown pressure prediction model in this study can provide theoretical guidance in the selection of fracturing truck groups and the design of the pumping schedule for high-temperature and high-pressure reservoirs.

Nanoindentation-Based Three-Parameter Fracability Evaluation Method for Continental Shales

Shale fracturing evaluation is of great significance to the development of shale oil and gas resources, but the commonly used shale evaluation methods (e.g., the method using the brittleness index based on mineral composition or elastic parameters) have certain limitations. Fractures and beddings affecting fracturing are not considered in these methods. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new method to evaluate fracturing more comprehensively. The samples used in this research were taken from four typical continental shale basins of China, namely the Bohai Bay Basin, the Ordos Basin, the Songliao Basin, and the Junggar Basin. From a microscopic point of view, a three-parameter evaluation method involving multi-dimensional factors has been developed based on the nanoindentation method. Then, the fracturing coefficient K2 is obtained by combining the ratio β of the fracture indentation to the total indentation and the uneven coefficient m. After that, the fracability coefficient K3 is the ratio of the elastic modulus parallel to bedding to that perpendicular to bedding. Finally, the correlation between fracability coefficients K1, K2, and K3 is used to evaluate the overall fracturing performance of shale. The results of this evaluation method are in good agreement with the actual fracturing performance. It can be concluded that this method is highly reliable and practical and well worthy of promoted applications.