scholarly journals Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (2) ◽  
pp. 425-442
Author(s):  
Jung-A Yang ◽  
Sooyoul Kim ◽  
Sangyoung Son ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Hajime Mase
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Vulnerable Area ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
The Future ◽  
Surge Height

Abstract We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.

scholarly journals How aerosols and greenhouse gases influence the diurnal temperature range

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla W. Stjern ◽  
Bjørn H. Samset ◽  
Olivier Boucher ◽  
Trond Iversen ◽  
Jean-François Lamarque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Diurnal Temperature Range ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Diurnal Temperature ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The diurnal temperature range (DTR), or difference between the maximum and minimum temperature within one day, is one of many climate parameters that affects health, agriculture and society. Understanding how DTR evolves under global warming is therefore crucial. Since physically different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, have distinct influences on global and regional climate, predicting the future evolution of DTR requires knowledge of the effects of individual climate forcers, as well as of the future emissions mix, in particular in high emission regions. Using global climate model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we investigate how idealized changes in the atmospheric levels of a greenhouse gas (CO2) and aerosols (black carbon and sulfate) influence DTR, globally and in selected regions. We find broad geographical patterns of annual mean change that are similar between climate drivers, pointing to a generalized response to global warming which is not defined by the individual forcing agents. Seasonal and regional differences, however, are substantial, which highlights the potential importance of local background conditions and feedbacks. While differences in DTR responses among drivers are minor in Europe and North America, there are distinctly different DTR responses to aerosols and greenhouse gas perturbations over India and China, where present aerosol emissions are particularly high. BC induces substantial reductions in DTR, which we attribute to strong modelled BC-induced cloud responses in these regions.

scholarly journals How aerosols and greenhouse gases influence the diurnal temperature range

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
pp. 13467-13480
Author(s):  
Camilla W. Stjern ◽  
Bjørn H. Samset ◽  
Olivier Boucher ◽  
Trond Iversen ◽  
Jean-François Lamarque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Diurnal Temperature Range ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Diurnal Temperature ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) (or difference between the maximum and minimum temperature within a day) is one of many climate parameters that affects health, agriculture and society. Understanding how DTR evolves under global warming is therefore crucial. Physically different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, have distinct influences on global and regional climate. Therefore, predicting the future evolution of DTR requires knowledge of the effects of individual climate forcers, as well as of the future emissions mix, in particular in high-emission regions. Using global climate model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we investigate how idealized changes in the atmospheric levels of a greenhouse gas (CO2) and aerosols (black carbon and sulfate) influence DTR (globally and in selected regions). We find broad geographical patterns of annual mean change that are similar between climate drivers, pointing to a generalized response to global warming which is not defined by the individual forcing agents. Seasonal and regional differences, however, are substantial, which highlights the potential importance of local background conditions and feedbacks. While differences in DTR responses among drivers are minor in Europe and North America, there are distinctly different DTR responses to aerosols and greenhouse gas perturbations over India and China, where present aerosol emissions are particularly high. BC induces substantial reductions in DTR, which we attribute to strong modeled BC-induced cloud responses in these regions.

scholarly journals PROJECTION OF FUTURE STORM SURGES AROUND THE KOREAN PENINSULA BASED ON LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE EXPERIMENTS

2018 ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Jung-A Yang ◽  
Sooyoul Kim ◽  
Hajime Mase ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Structure Design ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Climate Conditions

Projection of future storm surge height (SSH) based on results of ensemble climate experiments performed using a general climate model (hereafter, GCM) under future climate conditions is ready to start at the regional scale for disaster prevention against storm surge. However, there are limitation to estimate future SSHs with particular return periods which required in coastal structure design because of the lack of sample numbers of storm surge events on local scale. To obtain a large number of samples in localized catastrophic events, Mizuta et al. (2016) carried out an unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations using a high-resolution global climate model over 5000 years. In this study, spatial pattern of storm surge values around the Korean Peninsula (hereafter, the KP) with 100-years return period are assessed based on the large ensemble experiments.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (6) ◽  
pp. 1258-1263 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. David Neelin ◽  
Sandeep Sahany ◽  
Samuel N. Stechmann ◽  
Diana N. Bernstein
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Precipitation Loss

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

scholarly journals Lengthening of summer season over the Northern Hemisphere under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo-Joung Park ◽  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
Evan Weller
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Industrial Condition ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Hot Days

Abstract Summer season has lengthened substantially across Northern Hemisphere (NH) land over the past decades, which has been attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases. This study examines additional future changes in summer season onset and withdrawal under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming conditions using multiple atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) large-ensemble simulations from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. Five AGCMs provide more than 100 runs of 10-year length for three experiments: All-Hist (current decade: 2006-2015), Plus15, and Plus20 (1.5℃ and 2.0℃ above pre-industrial condition, respectively). Results show that with 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warmer conditions summer season will become longer by a few days to weeks over entire NH lands, with slightly larger contributions by delay in withdrawal due to stronger warming in late summer. Stronger changes are observed more in middle latitudes than high latitudes and largest expansion (up to three weeks) is found over East Asia and the Mediterranean. Associated changes in summer-like day frequency is further analyzed focusing on the extended summer edges. The hot days occur more frequently in lower latitudes including East Asia, USA and Mediterranean, in accord with largest summer season lengthening. Further, difference between Plus15 and Plus20 indicates that summer season lengthening and associated increases in hot days can be reduced significantly if warming is limited to 1.5℃. Overall, similar results are obtained from CMIP5 coupled GCM simulations (based on RCP8.5 scenario experiments), suggesting a weak influence of air-sea coupling on summer season timing changes.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

Large internal variability dominates over global warming signal in observed lower stratospheric QBO amplitude

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Aaron Match ◽  
Stephan Fueglistaler
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Dynamical Process ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Amplitude Profile ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Middle Stratosphere

AbstractGlobal warming projections of dynamics are less robust than projections of thermodynamics. However, robust aspects of the thermodynamics can be used to constrain some dynamical aspects. This paper argues that tropospheric expansion under global warming (a thermodynamical process) explains changes in the amplitude of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the lower and middle stratosphere (a dynamical process). A theoretical scaling for tropospheric expansion of approximately 6 hPa K−1 is derived, which agrees well with global climate model (GCM) experiments. Using this theoretical scaling, the response of QBO amplitude to global warming is predicted by shifting the climatological QBO amplitude profile upwards by 6 hPa per Kelvin of global warming. In global warming simulations, QBO amplitude in the lower- to mid-stratosphere shifts upwards as predicted by tropospheric expansion. Applied to observations, the tropospheric expansion framework suggests a historical weakening of QBO amplitude at 70 hPa of 3% decade−1 from 1953-2020. This expected weakening trend is half of the 6% decade−1 from 1953-2012 detected and attributed to global warming in a recent study. The previously reported trend was reinforced by record low QBO amplitudes during the mid-2000s, from which the QBO has since recovered. Given the modest weakening expected on physical grounds, past decadal modulations of QBO amplitude are reinterpreted as a hitherto unrecognized source of internal variability. This large internal variability dominates over the global warming signal, such that despite 65 years of observations, there is not yet a statistically significant weakening trend.

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