scholarly journals Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo C. Gurgel ◽  
John Reilly ◽  
Elodie Blanc
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Agricultural Markets ◽  
Crop Models

AbstractMany approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Global contribution of climate variability and trends to maize yield change in observations and crop models during 1980-2010

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomeng Yin ◽  
Guoyong Leng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Process Based Models

<p>Understanding historical crop yield response to climate change is critical for projecting future climate change impacts on yields. Previous assessments rely on statistical or process-based crop models, but each has its own strength and weakness. A comprehensive comparison of climate impacts on yield between the two approaches allows for evaluation of the uncertainties in future yield projections. Here we assess the impacts of historical climate change on global maize yield for the period 1980-2010 using both statistical and process-based models, with a focus on comparing the performances between the two approaches. To allow for reasonable comparability, we develop an emulator which shares the same structure with the statistical model to mimic the behaviors of process-based models. Results show that the simulated maize yields in most of the top 10 producing countries are overestimated, when compared against FAO observations. Overall, GEPIC, EPIC-IIASA and EPIC-Boku show better performance than other models in reproducing the observed yield variations at the global scale. Climate variability explains 42.00% of yield variations in observation-based statistical model, while large discrepancy is found in crop models. Regionally, climate variability is associated with 55.0% and 52.20% of yield variations in Argentina and USA, respectively. Further analysis based on process-based model emulator shows that climate change has led to a yield loss by 1.51%-3.80% during the period 1980-1990, consistent with the estimations using the observation-based statistical model. As for the period 1991-2000, however, the observed yield loss induced by climate change is only captured by GEPIC and pDSSAT. In contrast to the observed positive climate impact for the period 2001-2010, CLM-Crop, EPIC-IIASA, GEPIC, pAPSIM, pDSSAT and PEGASUS simulated negative climate effects. The results point to the discrepancy between process-based and statistical crop models in simulating climate change impacts on maize yield, which depends on not only the regions, but also the specific time period. We suggest that more targeted efforts are required for constraining the uncertainties of both statistical and process-based crop models for future yield predictions. </p>

Upscaling modelled crop yields to regional scale: A case study using DSSAT for spring wheat on the Canadian prairies

2015 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ted Huffman ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Reinder De Jong ◽  
Jiangui Liu ◽  
Hong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
Crop Models

Huffman, T., Qian, B., De Jong, R., Liu, J., Wang, H., McConkey, B., Brierley, T. and Yang, J. 2015. Upscaling modelled crop yields to regional scale: A case study using DSSAT for spring wheat on the Canadian prairies. Can. J. Soil Sci. 95: 49–61. Dynamic crop models are often operated at the plot or field scale. Upscaling is necessary when the process-based crop models are used for regional applications, such as forecasting regional crop yields and assessing climate change impacts on regional crop productivity. Dynamic crop models often require detailed input data for climate, soil and crop management; thus, their reliability may decrease at the regional scale as the uncertainty of simulation results might increase due to uncertainties in the input data. In this study, we modelled spring wheat yields at the level of numerous individual soils using the CERES–Wheat model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and then aggregated the simulated yields from individual soils to regions where crop yields were reported. A comparison between the aggregated and the reported yields was performed to examine the potential of using dynamic crop models with individual soils in a region for the simulation of regional crop yields. The regionally aggregated simulated yields demonstrated reasonable agreement with the reported data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and a root-mean-square error of 266 kg ha−1 (i.e., 15% of the average yield) over 40 regions on the Canadian prairies. Our conclusion is that aggregating simulated crop yields on individual soils with a crop model can be reliable for the estimation of regional crop yields. This demonstrated its potential as a useful approach for using crop models to assess climate change impacts on regional crop productivity.

scholarly journals Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 403-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. Lissner ◽  
D. E. Reusser ◽  
J. Schewe ◽  
T. Lakes ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
First Results

Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy-decisions.

scholarly journals Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. Lissner ◽  
D. E. Reusser ◽  
J. Schewe ◽  
T. Lakes ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
First Results

Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

scholarly journals Combined Impact of Climate Change and Land Qualities on Winter Wheat Yield in Central Fore-Caucasus: The Long-Term Retrospective Study

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1339
Author(s):  
Vasilii Erokhin ◽  
Alexander Esaulko ◽  
Elena Pismennaya ◽  
Evgeny Golosnoy ◽  
Olga Vlasova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Support Tool

Progressing climate change has been increasingly threatening the agricultural sector by compromising the resilience of ecosystems and endangering food security worldwide. Altering patterns of major climatic parameters require the perspectives of agricultural production to be assessed in a holistic way to understand the interactions of climatic and non-climatic factors on crop yield. However, it is difficult to distinguish the direct influence of changing temperature and precipitation on the productivity of crops while simultaneously capturing other contributing factors, such as spatial allocation of agricultural lands, economic conditions of land use, and soil fertility. Wide temporal and spatial fluctuations of climatic impacts substantially complicate the task. In the case of the 170-year retrospective analysis of the winter wheat sector in the south of Russia, this study tackles the challenge by establishing the multiplicative function to estimate crop yields as a long-term result of a combined influence of agricultural output parameters, qualities of soils, and climate variables. It is found that within the climate–land–yield triangle, linkages tighten or weaken depending on the strength of noise effects of economic and social perturbations. Still, the overall pressure of climate change on the cultivation of winter wheat has been aggravating. The inter-territory relocation of areas under crops based on the matching of soil types, precipitation, air temperature, and erodibility of lands is suggested as a climate response option. The approach can be employed as a decision support tool when developing territory-specific land management policies to cope with adverse climate impacts on the winter wheat sector.

scholarly journals The River Alazeya: Shifting Socio-Ecological Systems Connected to a Northeastern Siberian River

ARCTIC ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-86
Author(s):  
Tero Mustonen ◽  
Vyacheslav Shadrin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Local History ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Siberian River ◽  
Northeastern Siberia

One of the most remote Arctic locations, Andryushkino village of Yukaghir and Even peoples is located on the shore of the river Alazeya in northeastern Siberia, in the Lower Kolyma Republic of Sakha-Yakutia, Russia. The community is at the nexus of large-scale Arctic social and climate change resulting from economic shifts, permafrost melt events, and high temperatures. In this study, we approach Indigenous knowledge of climate impacts to water by investigating the role of the river Alazeya, which has enabled human life to thrive, given rise to the Indigenous governance of landscapes in the past, and today serves most of the Indigenous peoples in the region for their culture, food security, and well-being. To do this, we offer an ambitious system-change analysis of the socio-ecological context of the river basin and community by exploring oral histories recorded in the community between 2005 and 2020, combining them with relevant scientific literature and weather data from Russian measurement stations to detect and point to key messages of impacts. Our results confirm that the speed and extent of climate warming have increased since 1985. The flood event of 2007 in the village has especially been seen as a major climate change-induced catastrophe. We focus on the drivers of change from local history to present. We also investigate alternatives for future development of resilience and support for the Yukaghir culture, traditional ways of life, and language. 

scholarly journals Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture in Mali

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 313-329
Author(s):  
Tiémoko SOUMAORO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
Millet Yield

This study examined the total, direct and indirect effects of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) on crop yields (maize and millet) between regions located in close proximity to each other a spatial panel analysis of five administrative regions of Mali over a period of 30 years (1988-2017). Our results show that temperature and rainfall have direct, indirect and total effects on maize yield, while the direct effect on millet yield is not statistically significant. In other words, the effect on regions closely linked to region i where the change in temperature or rainfall occurred will be greater than the effect on more remote regions. In addition, the coefficient of variation of precipitation and the interaction between temperature and precipitation as well as area planted all have negative impacts on maize yield. However, millet yield is negatively correlated with drought in the study area. Based on these findings, decision-makers need to take into account that conditions in surrounding areas can influence cereal crop yields and that spillover effects differ between crop types. Investments in agricultural research and development must be encouraged to counter the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in Mali

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiémoko SOUMAORO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Maize Yields

Abstract This study examined the total, direct and indirect effects of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) on crop yields maize in a given region and in neighbouring regions, through a spatial panel analysis of five administrative regions of Mali over a 30-year period (1988 - 2017). Our results show that temperature and rainfall have direct, indirect and total effects on maize yields. In other words, the effect on regions closely linked to the region where the change in temperature or rainfall occurred will be greater than the effect on more remote regions. In addition, the coefficient of variation of precipitation and the interaction between temperature and precipitation as well as the area sown all have negative impacts on maize yields. However, maize yields are negatively correlated with drought. This means that maize production in the local area is declining as a result of increased extreme weather events. Based on these findings, policy makers need to take into account that conditions in the surrounding areas can influence maize yields and that spillover effects differ between crop types. Investments in agricultural research and development should be encouraged to counteract the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 608
Author(s):  
Christina Papadaskalopoulou ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Ioannis Lemesios ◽  
Anna Karali ◽  
Angeliki Konsta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
The Government

In this paper, the results of a climate change impact and vulnerability assessment conducted for the agricultural sector of Cyprus are presented. The assessment is based on the outputs of specialized climatic and crop models, while it incorporates quantified socio-economic vulnerability indicators of the Cypriot agriculture. The results are aggregated at municipal level in order to support regional and local adaptation planning. The assessment was performed for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), as well as for extreme climatic scenarios. Following, an economic assessment was made on the expected change in revenues of the agricultural sector. The results of climatic simulations indicated that future increases in temperature will be characterized by a strong seasonal trend, with the highest increases occurring in summer. Precipitation is expected to decrease throughout the island, where the highest decreases (50%) are expected during summer (RCP8.5). This trend will affect mainly tomato, grapevine, and olive tree, whose growing cycle takes place during summer. By contrast, crops covering autumn-winter season, such as potato, barley, and wheat, are expected to partially avoid harsh summer conditions. The results of the economic assessment show that the changes in total revenues are insignificant, because, under all scenarios, a loss in one crop is compensated by a gain in another crop. However, the farmers as well as the government should take action to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector, with a special focus on those crops and areas that are expected to be adversely affected by climate change impacts.

Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climate Change Impacts
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