scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in Mali

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiémoko SOUMAORO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Maize Yields

Abstract This study examined the total, direct and indirect effects of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) on crop yields maize in a given region and in neighbouring regions, through a spatial panel analysis of five administrative regions of Mali over a 30-year period (1988 - 2017). Our results show that temperature and rainfall have direct, indirect and total effects on maize yields. In other words, the effect on regions closely linked to the region where the change in temperature or rainfall occurred will be greater than the effect on more remote regions. In addition, the coefficient of variation of precipitation and the interaction between temperature and precipitation as well as the area sown all have negative impacts on maize yields. However, maize yields are negatively correlated with drought. This means that maize production in the local area is declining as a result of increased extreme weather events. Based on these findings, policy makers need to take into account that conditions in the surrounding areas can influence maize yields and that spillover effects differ between crop types. Investments in agricultural research and development should be encouraged to counteract the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture in Mali

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 313-329
Author(s):  
Tiémoko SOUMAORO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
Millet Yield

This study examined the total, direct and indirect effects of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) on crop yields (maize and millet) between regions located in close proximity to each other a spatial panel analysis of five administrative regions of Mali over a period of 30 years (1988-2017). Our results show that temperature and rainfall have direct, indirect and total effects on maize yield, while the direct effect on millet yield is not statistically significant. In other words, the effect on regions closely linked to region i where the change in temperature or rainfall occurred will be greater than the effect on more remote regions. In addition, the coefficient of variation of precipitation and the interaction between temperature and precipitation as well as area planted all have negative impacts on maize yield. However, millet yield is negatively correlated with drought in the study area. Based on these findings, decision-makers need to take into account that conditions in surrounding areas can influence cereal crop yields and that spillover effects differ between crop types. Investments in agricultural research and development must be encouraged to counter the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo C. Gurgel ◽  
John Reilly ◽  
Elodie Blanc
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Agricultural Markets ◽  
Crop Models

AbstractMany approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siatwiinda M. Siatwiinda ◽  
Iwan Supit ◽  
Bert van Hove ◽  
Olusegun Yerokun ◽  
Gerard H. Ros ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nutrient Management ◽  
Crop Management ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

AbstractMaize production in Zambia is characterized by significant yield gaps attributed to nutrient management and climate change threatens to widen these gaps unless agronomic management is optimized. Insights in the impacts of climate change on maize yields and the potential to mitigate negative impacts by crop management are currently lacking for Zambia. Using five Global Circulation models and the WOFOST crop model, we assessed climate change impacts on maize yields at a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Impacts were assessed for the near future (2035-2066) and far future (2065-2096) in comparison with a reference period (1971-2001). The surface temperature and warm days (above 30 °C) are projected to increase strongly in the southern and western regions. Precipitation is expected to decline, except in the northern regions, whereas the number of wet days declines everywhere, shortening the growing season. The risk of crop failure in western and southern regions increases due to dry spells and heat stress, while crops in the northern regions will be threatened by flooding or waterlogging due to heavy precipitation. The simulated decline in the water-limited and water- and nutrient-limited maize yields varied from 15 to 20% in the near future and from 20 to 40% in the far future, mainly due to the expected temperature increases. Optimizing management by adjusting planting dates and maize variety selection can counteract these impacts by 6-29%. The existing gaps between water-limited and nutrient-limited maize yields are substantially larger than the expected yield decline due to climate change. Improved nutrient management is therefore crucial to boost maize production in Zambia.

scholarly journals The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (9) ◽  
pp. 2670-2675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frances C. Moore ◽  
David B. Lobell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Yield Trends ◽  
Parameter Values

Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early 1990s as well as statistically significant warming during the growing season. Although it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term yield trends to a changing climate. Here, we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show that statistical power for the identification of climate change impacts is high in many settings, but that power for identifying adaptation is almost always low. Applying these tests to European agriculture, we find evidence that long-term temperature and precipitation trends since 1989 have reduced continent-wide wheat and barley yields by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively, and have slightly increased maize and sugar beet yields. These averages disguise large heterogeneity across the continent, with regions around the Mediterranean experiencing significant adverse impacts on most crops. This result means that climate trends can account for ∼10% of the stagnation in European wheat and barley yields, with likely explanations for the remainder including changes in agriculture and environmental policies.

Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climate Change Impacts

Modeling climate change impacts on blue, green, and grey water footprints and crop yields in the Texas High Plains, USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 310 ◽  
pp. 108649
Author(s):  
Yong Chen ◽  
Gary W. Marek ◽  
Thomas H. Marek ◽  
Dana O. Porter ◽  
David K. Brauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Grey Water ◽  
Texas High Plains

scholarly journals Satellites, Self-reports, and Submersion: Exposure to Floods in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Guiteras ◽  
Amir Jina ◽  
A. Mushfiq Mobarak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Objective Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Self Reports ◽  
Term Variation

A burgeoning “Climate-Economy” literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity, but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena, like natural disasters. We develop new, objective data on floods, focusing on Bangladesh. We show that rainfall and self-reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure. These data allow us to study adaptation, giving accurate measures of both long-term averages and short term variation in exposure. This is important in studying climate change impacts, as people will not only experience new exposures, but also experience them differently.

scholarly journals Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Mediterranean Finfish Production: A Case Study in Greece.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou ◽  
Konstadia Lika ◽  
Panagiotis Anastasiadis ◽  
Nikos Papandroulakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Mediterranean Country ◽  
Farm Level ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, Dynamic Energy Budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm level were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

scholarly journals Consequences of Climate Change Impacts and Incidences of Extreme Weather Events in Relation to Crop Production in Bhutan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngawang Chhogyel ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Yadunath Bajgai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Crop Damage ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Cropping Pattern ◽  
The People ◽  
Weather Events

Being a country in the Himalayas, Bhutan is highly prone to the vagaries of weather events that affect agricultural production and the subsequent livelihood of the people. To identify the main issues that affect crop production and the decisions of farmers, a survey was conducted in three different agro-ecosystems in Bhutan. Our key findings indicate that farming and the decisions of farmers were largely affected by different climatic and non-climatic factors. These were in descending order of importance: irrigation availability > farm labour > crop seasonality > crop damage (climatic) > land holding > crop damage (wildlife) > crop damage (diseases and pests). The most important consequences of climate change impacts were the drying of irrigation sources (4.35) and crop losses due to weather events (4.10), whereas land fallowing, the occurrence of flood and soil erosion, weed pressure and changes in cropping pattern (with mean ratings of 2.53–3.03) experienced lesser consequences. The extreme weather events, such as untimely rains, drought and windstorms, were rated as the ‘most common’ to ‘common’ occurrences, thus inflicting a crop loss of 1–19%. These confirm our hearsay knowledge that extreme weather events have major consequences on irrigation water, which is said to be either drying or getting smaller in comparison to the past. Therefore, Bhutan must step up its on-ground farmer-support system towards improving the country’s food production, whilst embracing climate smart farm technologies for adapting to the impacts of change.

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