scholarly journals The River Alazeya: Shifting Socio-Ecological Systems Connected to a Northeastern Siberian River

ARCTIC ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-86
Author(s):  
Tero Mustonen ◽  
Vyacheslav Shadrin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Local History ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Siberian River ◽  
Northeastern Siberia

One of the most remote Arctic locations, Andryushkino village of Yukaghir and Even peoples is located on the shore of the river Alazeya in northeastern Siberia, in the Lower Kolyma Republic of Sakha-Yakutia, Russia. The community is at the nexus of large-scale Arctic social and climate change resulting from economic shifts, permafrost melt events, and high temperatures. In this study, we approach Indigenous knowledge of climate impacts to water by investigating the role of the river Alazeya, which has enabled human life to thrive, given rise to the Indigenous governance of landscapes in the past, and today serves most of the Indigenous peoples in the region for their culture, food security, and well-being. To do this, we offer an ambitious system-change analysis of the socio-ecological context of the river basin and community by exploring oral histories recorded in the community between 2005 and 2020, combining them with relevant scientific literature and weather data from Russian measurement stations to detect and point to key messages of impacts. Our results confirm that the speed and extent of climate warming have increased since 1985. The flood event of 2007 in the village has especially been seen as a major climate change-induced catastrophe. We focus on the drivers of change from local history to present. We also investigate alternatives for future development of resilience and support for the Yukaghir culture, traditional ways of life, and language. 

scholarly journals Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo C. Gurgel ◽  
John Reilly ◽  
Elodie Blanc
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Agricultural Markets ◽  
Crop Models

AbstractMany approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Deadly Delays, Saving Opportunities: Creating a More Dangerous World?

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Shue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Distinctive Features ◽  
The Third ◽  
Energy Regime ◽  
Human Habitat ◽  
Strong Claim

We now know that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are interfering with the planet’s climate system in ways that are likely to lead to dangerous threats to human life (not to mention nonhuman life) and that are likely to compromise the fundamental well-being of people who live at a later time. We have not understood this for very long—for most of my life, for example, we were basically clueless about climate. Our recently acquired knowledge means that decisions about climate policy are no longer properly understood as decisions entirely about preferences of ours but also crucially about the vulnerabilities of others—not about the question “How much would we like to spend to slow climate change?” but about “How little are we in decency permitted to spend in light of the difficulties and the risks of difficulties to which we are likely otherwise to expose people, people already living and people yet to live?” For we now realize that the carbon-centered energy regime under which we live is modifying the human habitat, creating a more dangerous world for the living and for posterity. Our technologically primitive energy regime based on setting fire to fossil fuels is storing up, in the planet’s radically altering atmosphere, sources of added threat for people who are vulnerable to us and cannot protect themselves against the consequences of our decisions for the circumstances in which they will have to live—most notably, whichever people inherit the worn-and-torn planet we vacate. As we academics love to note, matters are, of course, complicated. Let’s look at a few of the complications, concentrating on some concerning risk. Mostly, we are talking about risks because, although we know strikingly much more about the planetary climate system than we did a generation ago, much is still unknown and unpredictable. I will offer three comments about risk. The third comment is the crucial one and makes a strong claim about a specific type of risk, with three distinctive features.

Predictability of large scale drivers leading intense Mediterranean cyclones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Pascal Yiou ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Robert Vautard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Mediterranean Cyclones ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcings

<p>Windstorms, extreme precipitations and instant floods seems to strike the Mediterranean area with increasing frequency. These events occur simultaneously during intense tropical-like Mediterranean cyclones. These intense Mediterranean cyclones are frequently associated with wind, heavy precipitation and changes in temperature, generating high risk situations such as flash floods and large-scale floods with significant impacts on human life and built environment. Although the dynamics of these phenomena is well understood, little is know about their climatology. It is therefore very difficult to make statements about the frequency of occurrence and its response to climate change. Thus, intense Mediterranean cyclones have many different physical aspects that can not be captured by a simple standard approach. </p><p>The first challenge of this work is to provide an extended catalogue and climatology of these phenomena by reconstructing a database of intense Mediterranean cyclones dating back up to 1969 using the satellite, the literature and reanalyses. Applying a method based on dynamical systems theory we analyse and attribute their future changes under different anthropogenic forcings by using future simulations within CMIP framework. Preliminary results show a decrease of the large-scale circulation patterns favoring intense Mediterranean cyclones in all the seasons except summer.</p>

scholarly journals Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 403-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. Lissner ◽  
D. E. Reusser ◽  
J. Schewe ◽  
T. Lakes ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
First Results

Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy-decisions.

scholarly journals Nature-Based Solutions in Poland against Climate Change

Energies ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 357
Author(s):  
Edyta Małecka-Ziembińska ◽  
Izabela Janicka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Electronic Survey ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
Public Areas ◽  
Cheap Method ◽  
Survey Results

One of the currently promoted methods of counteracting climate change is nature-based climate solutions, which harness the power of nature to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable management of ecosystems is a guarantee for sustained human well-being. This underestimated, but extremely efficient and cheap method of integrating nature resources into the urban fabric is an economic “injection” for communal authorities. These “green” benefits should be standard in land-use planning in the era of anthropocentrism. Solutions based on nature were the reason for investigating their perception by Polish municipalities. The survey covered the entire country (all 2477 municipalities) from 20 July to 31 August 2021 through an electronic survey, obtaining 2128 responses (85.9% return rate). In the final result, data were obtained that support the hypotheses posed in the study. The main objective of the research was to check the level of activity of municipalities in Poland in the field of proecological activities using nature-based solutions (NbS). The survey results confirmed little knowledge of nature-based solutions, at the same time giving it an educational dimension. Half of the respondents declared that they learned about NbS only from the survey. Polish decision makers and municipal authorities introduce some solutions based on nature without being aware of their European classification and adequate nomenclature. Environmental awareness in Poland remains largely the domain of urban municipalities, with higher current budget revenues per capita and in the central and western parts of the country. NbS are marginal in rural municipalities, which can be explained by the lack of ecological specialists, less car traffic and more single-family houses and thus modest public areas. The following surveys covering the entire territory of Poland are the first to be carried out on such a large scale.

scholarly journals Fine-Tuning Climate Resilience in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems: The Need for Accurate Space-Time Representativeness to Identify Relevant Consequences and Responses

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romeo Saldívar-Lucio ◽  
Armando Trasviña-Castro ◽  
Narriman Jiddawi ◽  
Ratana Chuenpagdee ◽  
Lars Lindström ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Engagement ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Psychological Distance ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Perceive Risk

Climate change triggers a wide mosaic of regional and local responses, often different to the large-scale variability in magnitude and direction. Because of the psychological connections (cognitive and emotional) with the frequency, intensity and age of a climatic event, people may have the capacity to recognize key variations at lower scales, especially those from which they perceive risk. Yet, the anticipatory actions and social engagement to respond or adapt to climate change are difficult to achieve, mostly when there exists a long psychological distance to climatic phenomena. Research about climate change communication provides clues about the relevance of place-based discussion to gauge risk perception and improve response protocols, their design and prioritization. It argues that strategies and actions required to face climate risks may widely differ depending on the scale and accuracy of the local representations displayed during discussions of climate impacts. This work examines how local attributes (from climate to social) operate and control place-specific risks and priorities, by comparing coastal communities in two locations, Cabo Pulmo, Mexico and Zanzibar, Tanzania, which are subject to different climate dynamics. This paper discusses the need to identify relevant climate risks/responses at the local level and how psycho-social factors (e.g., psychological distance, collective memory, and social engagement) may operate positively for building climate resilience. We also illustrate a workflow to increase and enhance collaboration between researchers and local people by promoting dialogue, participation and narratives that rigorously consider the local knowledge.

Assessing the effects of climate change on US West Coast sablefish productivity and on the performance of alternative management strategies

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (6) ◽  
pp. 1524-1542
Author(s):  
Melissa A Haltuch ◽  
Z Teresa A’mar ◽  
Nicholas A Bond ◽  
Juan L Valero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us West

Abstract US West Coast sablefish are economically valuable, with landings of 11.8 million pounds valued at over $31 million during 2016, making assessing and understanding the impact of climate change on the California Current (CC) stock a priority for (1) forecasting future stock productivity, and (2) testing the robustness of management strategies to climate impacts. Sablefish recruitment is related to large-scale climate forcing indexed by regionally correlated sea level (SL) and zooplankton communities that pelagic young-of-the-year sablefish feed upon. This study forecasts trends in future sablefish productivity using SL from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and explores the robustness of harvest control rules (HCRs) to climate driven changes in recruitment using management strategy evaluation (MSE). Future sablefish recruitment is likely to be similar to historical recruitment but may be less variable. Most GCMs suggest that decadal SL trends result in recruitments persisting at lower levels through about 2040 followed by higher levels that are more favorable for sablefish recruitment through 2060. Although this MSE suggests that spawning biomass and catches will decline, and then stabilize, into the future under both HCRs, the sablefish stock does not fall below the stock size that leads to fishery closures.

A Moral Analysis of Carbon Majors' Role in Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Grasso ◽  
Katia Vladimirova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Scale Transformation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Socially Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Practical Implications

Two-thirds of global industrial greenhouse gas emissions over the past two centuries can be traced to the activities of a handful of companies ('carbon majors'). Based on their direct contribution to climate change in terms of carbon emissions and on a number of morally relevant facts, this article proposes a normative framework to establish the responsibilities that carbon majors have in relation to climate change. Then, the analysis articulates these responsibilities in the form of two duties: a duty of decarbonisation and a duty of reparation. The duty of decarbonisation entails a large-scale transformation that carbon majors ought to undergo in order to reduce and eventually eliminate carbon emissions from their entire business model. The duty of reparation implies rectification through disgorgement of funds for the wrongful actions of carbon majors, which resulted in negative climate impacts, starting from the most socially vulnerable groups affected by climate change. Finally, the article indicates possible practical implications of these duties.

scholarly journals Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. Lissner ◽  
D. E. Reusser ◽  
J. Schewe ◽  
T. Lakes ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
First Results

Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

Climate Change and Supply Chain Operations

2011 ◽  
pp. 93-126
Author(s):  
Costas P. Pappis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The World ◽  
Stern Review ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

In the previous chapter 3 the focus of the presentation has been on the implications of climate change, as felt globally, for the environment and human societies in developing as well as in developed countries. As noticed there, the Stern Review’s conclusion that “climate change will have increasingly severe impacts on people around the world, with a growing risk of abrupt and large-scale changes at higher temperatures” (Stern Review, 2006) is shared by most scientists and governments. The Review warns that “a warmer world with a more intense water cycle and rising sea levels will influence many key determinants of wealth and well-being, including water supply, food production, human health, availability of land, and the environment” (Stern Review, p. 84).

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