scholarly journals Recruitment into Organized Crime: An Agent-Based Approach Testing the Impact of Different Policies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Calderoni ◽  
Gian Maria Campedelli ◽  
Aron Szekely ◽  
Mario Paolucci ◽  
Giulia Andrighetto
Keyword(s):  
Organized Crime ◽  
Criminal Group ◽  
Evaluation Research ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
School Work ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Theory Of Crime ◽  
Primary Socialization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Policy Scenarios

Abstract Objectives We test the effects of four policy scenarios on recruitment into organized crime. The policy scenarios target (i) organized crime leaders and (ii) facilitators for imprisonment, (iii) provide educational and welfare support to children and their mothers while separating them from organized-crime fathers, and (iv) increase educational and social support to at-risk schoolchildren. Methods We developed a novel agent-based model drawing on theories of peer effects (differential association, social learning), social embeddedness of organized crime, and the general theory of crime. Agents are simultaneously embedded in multiple social networks (household, kinship, school, work, friends, and co-offending) and possess heterogeneous individual attributes. Relational and individual attributes determine the probability of offending. Co-offending with organized crime members determines recruitment into the criminal group. All the main parameters are calibrated on data from Palermo or Sicily (Italy). We test the effect of the four policy scenarios against a baseline no-intervention scenario on the number of newly recruited and total organized crime members using Generalized Estimating Equations models. Results The simulations generate realistic outcomes, with relatively stable organized crime membership and crime rates. All simulated policy interventions reduce the total number of members, whereas all but primary socialization reduce newly recruited members. The intensity of the effects, however, varies across dependent variables and models. Conclusions Agent-based models effectively enable to develop theoretically driven and empirically calibrated simulations of organized crime. The simulations can fill the gaps in evaluation research in the field of organized crime and allow us to test different policies in different environmental contexts.

Organized Crime and Criminal Networks in Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Shaw ◽  
Tuesday Reitano
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
Criminal Group ◽  
Hard Core ◽  
The State ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Criminal Networks ◽  
Illicit Markets ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Impact

Organised crime and criminal networks are an outcome of Africa’s weak systems of state reach and governance, and in turn they further undermine effective state-building. Defining “organized crime” is challenging in the African context. African policy discussions did not use this term until recently, and it is so broad that it covers an enormous range of activity. Nevertheless, it is arguably now generally used and accepted, denoting organized illegal activities by a group of people over time that generate a profit. Such terminology is also now widely referred to internationally and in a UN Convention (which defines an “organized criminal group” but not organized crime itself) to which almost all African states have subscribed. The term “criminal networks” is often also used in African debates, denoting the more flexible and dynamic criminal arrangements that characterize the continent. Organized crime and criminal networks in Africa appear in many different forms, shaped largely by the strength of the state, and the degree that political elites and state actors are themselves involved in them. Broadly, organized crime can be said to occur along a continuum on the continent. On one side are well-established and -organized mafia-style groups such as the hard-core gangs of the Western Cape in South Africa or militia style operations engaged in ‘taxing’ local populations and economic activities, both licit and illicit. In the middle of the continuum, are relatively loose, and often highly effective, criminal networks made up both of Africans (West African criminal networks being the most prominent) and a range of foreign criminal actors seeking opportunities. On the other end, are sets of criminal style entrepreneurs, often operating as companies (the Guptas in South Africa, for example) but with a variety of forms of state protection. Illicit financial outflows in particular are a serious concern, but governance and regulatory reforms will be far more critical than the suppression of illicit markets themselves by law enforcement agencies, given also evidence that suggests a high degree of collusion between some African police and criminals in several illicit markets. Violence too remains a key tool for criminal control and advancement at all points along the spectrum, with the strength of the state and the collusion between state actors and criminal groups often determining the form, intensity and targets of that violence. That is one reason why the link between organized crime and conflict on the continent remains a concern, with actors (who in many cases exhibit criminal or mafia-style attributes) seeking to enhance their resource accumulation by control or taxation of criminal markets. Given this and other factors, the impact of organized crime on Africa’s development is severe, and although in some key markets the illicit economy provides opportunities for livelihood and a source of resilience, these opportunities are negated by the extent of environmental damage, the growth of drug use among the poor and marginalized, human rights abuses of migrants and those being trafficked, the violence engendered, and the economic distortions introduced.

Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Modelling

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew G. Haldane
Keyword(s):  
Economic Systems ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Macroeconomic Modelling ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Radical Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

This chapter explores how we might deal with the prevalence of disequilibria and radical uncertainty in complex economic systems, and examines the potential of agent-based models as a tool for helping us understand the dynamics of these systems and the impact of policy interventions.

scholarly journals Оn organized crime strategies (example of Ukraine and Spain)

1970 ◽  
pp. 320-324
Author(s):  
Raisa Perelyhina ◽  
Yurii Dmytryshak
Keyword(s):  
Organized Crime ◽  
Criminal Group ◽  
The State ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Criminal Organizations ◽  
State Apparatus ◽  
Domestic Legislation ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Criminal Groups ◽  
The Impact

Organized crime is one of the biggest problems of today’s states, with levels steadily increasing and engulfing more and more countries. Such crime is different from crimes that are committed unorganized or alone by their extreme danger to society. Organized crime influences important political and social processes in the state, interferes with the work of public authorities, which damages the efficiency of these bodies and reduces the level of trust in the state apparatus. In general, it can be argued that regardless of the specialization of criminal groups, organized crime is the most dangerous and complex anti-social phenomenon, it has no boundaries, and members of such a criminal group are located in different corners of the world and in the development of telecommunication, computer technologies, combating Organized crime requires new techniques In order to improve the fight against organized crime, Spain updates its legislation every year. This is due to the fact that criminal organizations are coming up with new methods and ways of carrying out their activities and pursuing their interests. Because of this, some old mafia techniques are simply not effective. The strategy has main objectives, it is the delimitation of criminal structures; reducing their activity; preventing the emergence of new criminal groups; reducing the impact on the public; counteracting the growing link between terrorism and organized crime. To do this, the strategy is built around ten lines of activity, seven vertical lines and three horizontal lines that intersect them. This strategy also notes for each area certain actions that will be a very useful tool for all public authorities aimed at ensuring the security of the country. The article analyzes the legislation of Spain in the field of combating organized crime, which highlights the main innovations in this legislation, which increase the efficiency of the work of public authorities in the fight against organized crime. The new strategy for the fight against organized crime is described, its main goals and directions of improvement are investigated. The peculiarities of combating organized crime in Spain, as well as the formulation of proposals for improvement of domestic legislation in the above, were investigated on the basis of the analysis of relevant legal acts.

scholarly journals Process Modeling and Simulation of Tableting—An Agent-Based Simulation Methodology for Direct Compression

Pharmaceutics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Niels Lasse Martin ◽  
Ann Kathrin Schomberg ◽  
Jan Henrik Finke ◽  
Tim Gyung-min Abraham ◽  
Arno Kwade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Pilot Scale ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Product And Process ◽  
The Impact

In pharmaceutical manufacturing, the utmost aim is reliably producing high quality products. Simulation approaches allow virtual experiments of processes in the planning phase and the implementation of digital twins in operation. The industrial processing of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) into tablets requires the combination of discrete and continuous sub-processes with complex interdependencies regarding the material structures and characteristics. The API and excipients are mixed, granulated if required, and subsequently tableted. Thereby, the structure as well as the properties of the intermediate and final product are influenced by the raw materials, the parametrized processes and environmental conditions, which are subject to certain fluctuations. In this study, for the first time, an agent-based simulation model is presented, which enables the prediction, tracking, and tracing of resulting structures and properties of the intermediates of an industrial tableting process. Therefore, the methodology for the identification and development of product and process agents in an agent-based simulation is shown. Implemented physical models describe the impact of process parameters on material structures. The tablet production with a pilot scale rotary press is experimentally characterized to provide calibration and validation data. Finally, the simulation results, predicting the final structures, are compared to the experimental data.

scholarly journals Integrated IEW-TOPSIS and Fire Dynamics Simulation for Agent-Based Evacuation Modeling in Industrial Safety

Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Wattana Chanthakhot ◽  
Kasin Ransikarbum
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

Emergency events in the industrial sector have been increasingly reported during the past decade. However, studies that focus on emergency evacuation to improve industrial safety are still scarce. Existing evacuation-related studies also lack a perspective of fire assembly point’s analysis. In this research, location of assembly points is analyzed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique based on the integrated information entropy weight (IEW) and techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support the fire evacuation plan. Next, we propose a novel simulation model that integrates fire dynamics simulation coupled with agent-based evacuation simulation to evaluate the impact of smoke and visibility from fire on evacuee behavior. Factors related to agent and building characteristics are examined for fire perception of evacuees, evacuees with physical disabilities, escape door width, fire location, and occupancy density. Then, the proposed model is applied to a case study of a home appliance factory in Chachoengsao, Thailand. Finally, results for the total evacuation time and the number of remaining occupants are statistically examined to suggest proper evacuation planning.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanda Almeida ◽  
Salvador Barrios ◽  
Michael Christl ◽  
Silvia De Poli ◽  
Alberto Tumino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Income Loss ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

AbstractThis analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures taken by the EU Member States. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to affect significantly households’ disposable income in the EU, with lower income households being more severely hit. However, our results show that due to policy intervention, the impact of the crisis is expected to be similar to the one experienced during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. In detail, our results indicate that discretionary fiscal policy measures will play a significant cushioning role, reducing the size of the income loss (from −9.3% to −4.3% for the average equivalised disposable income), its regressivity and mitigating the poverty impact of the pandemic. We conclude that policy interventions are therefore instrumental in cushioning against the impact of the crisis on inequality and poverty.

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