The maximum expected earthquake magnitudes in different future time intervals of six seismotectonic zones of Iran and its surroundings

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1485-1498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mona Salamat ◽  
Gert Zöller ◽  
Mehdi Zare ◽  
Mortaza Amini
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-179
Author(s):  
V. F. Pisarenko ◽  
A. A. Lyubushin ◽  
M. V. Rodkin
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Marco Ferreira ◽  
Adelmo Bertoldey ◽  
Scott Holan

This article discusses the results of a study in Bayesian reliability analysis concerning train door failures in a European underground system over a period of nine years. It examines failure data from forty underground trains, which were delivered to an European transportation company between November 1989 and March 1991. All of the trains were put in service from 20 March 1990 to 20 July 1992. Failure monitoring ended on 31 December 1998. The goal of the study was to find models able to assess the failure history and to predict the number of failures in future time intervals in order to help the company determine the reliability level of the train doors before warranty expiration. The article describes the development and application of a novel bivariate Poisson process as a natural way to extend the usual Poisson models for analysing the occurrence of failures in repairable systems.


Author(s):  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
S. V. Datta ◽  
D. Komljenovic

Pitting corrosion is a serious form of degradation in steam generator (SG) tubing of some nuclear generating stations. The nature and extent of the pitting process is assessed through inspection programs, typically using eddy current probes. Although the data can be used in a probabilistic framework to predict the probability of a tube leak in future time intervals, the consideration of uncertainties associated with inspection tools is extremely important. The paper shows that the defect size data collected through inspections are significantly contaminated by probability of detection and measurement error such that the data present an incomplete picture of the defect population. The use of inspection data without accounting for inspection uncertainties in the analysis results in highly biased estimates of the leak probability. The paper presents a statistically correct likelihood method to account for inspection uncertainties and demonstrates its effectiveness through examples.


Author(s):  
Thiago Adriano dos Santos ◽  
Gilberto Fisch

This work quantified temperature and precipitation variations in the region of Taubate using historic precipitation data and temperature simulations (climatology from 1961 to 1990). Corrections were made based on the observational data, and simulations of future time intervals (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099) using a climate-model simulation. Thus, it is possible to predict an increase of 3.6°C in the average annual air temperature and an increase of 231 mm in annual accumulated rainfall (equivalent to approximately 17% of the climatological normal) for the interval 2071-2099. Moreover, in relation to seasonal distribution, there is a higher monthly average temperature increase in the spring (4.1°C) and lower in the summer (3.4°C) and a higher average daily increase in summer rainfall (1.1 mm) and smaller increase in spring (0.3 mm). There is also an increase of approximately 5 days in the daily number of days with greater than 1mm precipitation throughout the year. The analysis of the water balance showed deficits in the months of August and September and found a disparity between the input and output of water entering the territory through precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water consumption, suggesting the need to adapt to new social and environmental scenarios.


1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 139-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Rybák ◽  
V. Rušin ◽  
M. Rybanský

AbstractFe XIV 530.3 nm coronal emission line observations have been used for the estimation of the green solar corona rotation. A homogeneous data set, created from measurements of the world-wide coronagraphic network, has been examined with a help of correlation analysis to reveal the averaged synodic rotation period as a function of latitude and time over the epoch from 1947 to 1991.The values of the synodic rotation period obtained for this epoch for the whole range of latitudes and a latitude band ±30° are 27.52±0.12 days and 26.95±0.21 days, resp. A differential rotation of green solar corona, with local period maxima around ±60° and minimum of the rotation period at the equator, was confirmed. No clear cyclic variation of the rotation has been found for examinated epoch but some monotonic trends for some time intervals are presented.A detailed investigation of the original data and their correlation functions has shown that an existence of sufficiently reliable tracers is not evident for the whole set of examinated data. This should be taken into account in future more precise estimations of the green corona rotation period.


Author(s):  
Robert Corbett ◽  
Delbert E. Philpott ◽  
Sam Black

Observation of subtle or early signs of change in spaceflight induced alterations on living systems require precise methods of sampling. In-flight analysis would be preferable but constraints of time, equipment, personnel and cost dictate the necessity for prolonged storage before retrieval. Because of this, various tissues have been stored in fixatives and combinations of fixatives and observed at various time intervals. High pressure and the effect of buffer alone have also been tried.Of the various tissues embedded, muscle, cartilage and liver, liver has been the most extensively studied because it contains large numbers of organelles common to all tissues (Fig. 1).


Author(s):  
L. V. Leak ◽  
J. F. Burke

The vital role played by the lymphatic capillaries in the transfer of tissue fluids and particulate materials from the connective tissue area can be demonstrated by the rapid removal of injected vital dyes into the tissue areas. In order to ascertain the mechanisms involved in the transfer of substances from the connective tissue area at the ultrastructural level, we have injected colloidal particles of varying sizes which range from 80 A up to 900-mμ. These colloidal particles (colloidal ferritin 80-100A, thorium dioxide 100-200 A, biological carbon 200-300 and latex spheres 900-mμ) are injected directly into the interstitial spaces of the connective tissue with glass micro-needles mounted in a modified Chambers micromanipulator. The progress of the particles from the interstitial space into the lymphatic capillary lumen is followed by observing tissues from animals (skin of the guinea pig ear) that were injected at various time intervals ranging from 5 minutes up to 6 months.


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