scholarly journals Revising Probabilities and Full Beliefs

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 1005-1039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Ove Hansson
Keyword(s):  
Formal Model ◽  
Belief Change ◽  
Learning From Experience ◽  
Epistemic Agent ◽  
Set Operations ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Formal Properties ◽  
Belief States ◽  
Do So ◽  
Belief Set

Abstract A new formal model of belief dynamics is proposed, in which the epistemic agent has both probabilistic beliefs and full beliefs. The agent has full belief in a proposition if and only if she considers the probability that it is false to be so close to zero that she chooses to disregard that probability. She treats such a proposition as having the probability 1, but, importantly, she is still willing and able to revise that probability assignment if she receives information that gives her sufficient reasons to do so. Such a proposition is (presently) undoubted, but not undoubtable (incorrigible). In the formal model it is assigned a probability 1 − δ, where δ is an infinitesimal number. The proposed model employs probabilistic belief states that contain several underlying probability functions representing alternative probabilistic states of the world. Furthermore, a distinction is made between update and revision, in the same way as in the literature on (dichotomous) belief change. The formal properties of the model are investigated, including properties relevant for learning from experience. The set of propositions whose probabilities are infinitesimally close to 1 forms a (logically closed) belief set. Operations that change the probabilistic belief state give rise to changes in this belief set, which have much in common with traditional operations of belief change.

The child's lexical representation: the ‘puzzle-puddle-pickle’ evidence

1980 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlys A. Macken
Keyword(s):  
Language Acquisition ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Lexical Representation ◽  
Surface Form ◽  
Phonological Development ◽  
Mapping System ◽  
Theory Of Language ◽  
Formal Properties ◽  
Phonological Change ◽  
Do So

Smith (1973) presents a detailed analysis of his son's phonological development between the ages of two and four.1 The book is impressive, not only for the care with which the analysis was done but also, and more importantly, for the clarity with which central acquisition issues were stated. The analysis of the child's productions was done in two ways: first as a mapping from the adult system and second as a self-contained system. In his introduction, Smith raises seven issues that any theory of language acquisition must address; one of these concerns the nature of phonological change. Smith states that when changes occur in the child's output, they do so in an ‘across-the-board’ fashion. On the basis of this (and other) evidence, Smith concludes that the child must have the adult surface form as his underlying lexical representation. The implication is clear: the child must thus perceive in an adult-like fashion and the deviance of his/her output is due to the articulatory difficulty of certain sounds and sound sequences (and in some cases to certain formal properties of his mapping system).

scholarly journals One-dimensional Lumped-Circuit for Transient Thermal Study of an Induction Electric Motor

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1714
Author(s):  
Radhia Jebahi ◽  
Helmi Aloui ◽  
Moez Ayadi
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Thermal State ◽  
Electrical Machines ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Lumped Parameter ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Transient Thermal ◽  
Real Time Information ◽  
Time Information ◽  
Do So

<span lang="EN-US">Electrical machines lifetime and performances could be improved when along the design process both electromagnetic and thermal behaviors are taken into account. Moreover, real time information about the device thermal state is necessary to an appropriate control with minimized losses. Models based on lumped parameter thermal circuits are: generic, rapid, accurate and qualified as a convenient solution for power systems. The purpose of the present paper is to validate a simulation platform intended for the prediction of the thermal state of an induction motor covering all operation regimes.  To do so, in steady state, the proposed model is validated using finite element calculation and experimental records. Then, in an overload situation, obtained temperatures are compared to finite element’s ones. It has been found that, in both regimes, simulation results are with closed proximity to finite element’s ones and experimental records.</span>

scholarly journals A Framework for Sequential Planning in Multi-Agent Settings

2005 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 49-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Gmytrasiewicz ◽  
P. Doshi
Keyword(s):  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Value Iteration ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Carry Over ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Partially Observable ◽  
Belief States ◽  
Do So

This paper extends the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to multi-agent settings by incorporating the notion of agent models into the state space. Agents maintain beliefs over physical states of the environment and over models of other agents, and they use Bayesian updates to maintain their beliefs over time. The solutions map belief states to actions. Models of other agents may include their belief states and are related to agent types considered in games of incomplete information. We express the agents' autonomy by postulating that their models are not directly manipulable or observable by other agents. We show that important properties of POMDPs, such as convergence of value iteration, the rate of convergence, and piece-wise linearity and convexity of the value functions carry over to our framework. Our approach complements a more traditional approach to interactive settings which uses Nash equilibria as a solution paradigm. We seek to avoid some of the drawbacks of equilibria which may be non-unique and do not capture off-equilibrium behaviors. We do so at the cost of having to represent, process and continuously revise models of other agents. Since the agent's beliefs may be arbitrarily nested, the optimal solutions to decision making problems are only asymptotically computable. However, approximate belief updates and approximately optimal plans are computable. We illustrate our framework using a simple application domain, and we show examples of belief updates and value functions.

Formalization of business workflow with typed attributed graph

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-398
Author(s):  
Dipty Tripathi ◽  
Shreya Banerjee ◽  
Anirban Sarkar
Keyword(s):  
Business Process ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Exception Handling ◽  
Workflow Model ◽  
Deadlock Detection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Attributed Graph

Purpose Business process workflow is a design conceptualization to automate the sequence of activities to achieve a business goal with involved participants and a predefined set of rules. Regarding this, a formal business workflow model is a prime requisite to implement a consistent and rigorous business process. In this context, majority of the existing research works are formalized structural features and have not focused on functional and behavioral design aspects of business processes. To address this problem, this paper aims to propose a formal model of business process workflow called as business process workflow using typed attributed graph (BPWATG) enriched with structural, functional and behavioral characteristics of business processes. Design/methodology/approach Typed attributed graph (ATG) and first-order logic have been used to formalize proposed BPWATG to provide rigorous syntax and semantics towards business process workflows. This is an effort to execute a business workflow on an automated machine. Further, the proposed BPWATG is illustrated using a case study to show the expressiveness of proposed model. Besides, the proposed graph is initially validated using generic modelling environment (GME) case tool. Moreover, a comparative study is performed with existing formal approaches based on several crucial features to exhibit the effectiveness of proposed BPWATG. Findings The proposed model is capable of facilitating structural, functional and behavioral aspects of business process workflows using several crucial features such as dependency conceptualization, timer concepts, exception handling and deadlock detection. These features are used to handle real-world problems and ensure the consistency and correctness of business workflows. Originality/value BPWATG is proposed to formalize a business workflow that is required to make a model of business process machine-readable. Besides, formalizations of dependency conceptualization, exception handling, deadlock detection and time-out concepts are specified. Moreover, several non-functional properties (reusability, scalability, flexibility, dynamicity, reliability and robustness) are supported by the proposed model.

Supply chain integration with BIM: a graph-based model

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 257-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleni Papadonikolaki ◽  
Ruben Vrijhoef ◽  
Hans Wamelink
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
Information Modeling ◽  
Information Flows ◽  
Organizational Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Graph Based Model

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to integrate the construction Supply Chain (SC) through the application of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Supply Chain Management (SCM). It features a renovation case as a proof-of-concept. Design/methodology/approach – After analyzing the relevant gaps in the literature, the research followed a modeling approach. The proposed model merged product-, process- and organizational models in a graph-based model to represent and analyze a BIM-based SCM project. Findings – Presently, the information flows of the construction SC are vague. BIM is an aspiring integrator of information flows for construction. The proposed model for SC integration with BIM, offers an approach to identify the project complexities in relation to organizational structures, roles and interactions and integrate the industry. Practical implications – Currently BIM-enabled SCM is not very widely applied in the industry. However, the authors report the increasing interest of most construction stakeholders to engage in the application of the two, after acknowledging the benefits from the individual approaches. Since this combination is quite rare, the research uses a retrospective real-world case study of a SC project with an imaginary application of BIM. Originality/value – Thus far, there is no formal model to represent the interactions of the SC actors along with BIM. The unique combination of a product and a process model, i.e. BIM, with an organizational model aims at integrating the information flows of the SC. The proposed model aims at analyzing and supporting the BIM-enabled SCM in Architecture Engineering and Construction.

scholarly journals How hard is cognitive science?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Rich ◽  
Ronald de Haan ◽  
Todd Wareham ◽  
Iris van Rooij
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Science ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Complexity Analysis ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Cognitive Activity ◽  
Inference Problem ◽  
Computational Cognitive Science ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Computational Level ◽  
Do So

Cognitive science is itself a cognitive activity. Yet, computational cognitive science tools are seldom used to study (limits of) cognitive scientists’ thinking. Here, we do so using computational-level modeling and complexity analysis. We present an idealized formal model of a core inference problem faced by cognitive scientists: Given observations of a system’s behaviors, infer cognitive processes that could plausibly produce the behavior. We consider variants of this problem at different levels of explanation and prove that at each level, the inference problem is intractable, or even uncomputable. We discuss the implications for cognitive science.

scholarly journals Distribution Bisimilarity via the Power of Convex Algebras

2021 ◽  
Vol Volume 17, Issue 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Bonchi ◽  
Alexandra Silva ◽  
Ana Sokolova
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Belief State ◽  
Proof Technique ◽  
Extended Version ◽  
Transition Systems ◽  
Probabilistic Automata ◽  
Abstract Approach ◽  
Belief States ◽  
Combine Probability ◽  
Do So

Probabilistic automata (PA), also known as probabilistic nondeterministic labelled transition systems, combine probability and nondeterminism. They can be given different semantics, like strong bisimilarity, convex bisimilarity, or (more recently) distribution bisimilarity. The latter is based on the view of PA as transformers of probability distributions, also called belief states, and promotes distributions to first-class citizens. We give a coalgebraic account of distribution bisimilarity, and explain the genesis of the belief-state transformer from a PA. To do so, we make explicit the convex algebraic structure present in PA and identify belief-state transformers as transition systems with state space that carries a convex algebra. As a consequence of our abstract approach, we can give a sound proof technique which we call bisimulation up-to convex hull. Comment: Full (extended) version of a CONCUR 2017 paper, minor revision of the LMCS submission

scholarly journals A Characterization of Probability-based Dichotomous Belief Revision

Studia Logica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Ove Hansson
Keyword(s):  
Belief Revision ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Belief Change ◽  
Negligible Probability ◽  
Future Information ◽  
Belief Set

AbstractThis article investigates the properties of multistate top revision, a dichotomous (AGM-style) model of belief revision that is based on an underlying model of probability revision. A proposition is included in the belief set if and only if its probability is either 1 or infinitesimally close to 1. Infinitesimal probabilities are used to keep track of propositions that are currently considered to have negligible probability, so that they are available if future information makes them more plausible. Multistate top revision satisfies a slightly modified version of the set of basic and supplementary AGM postulates, except the inclusion and success postulates. This result shows that hyperreal probabilities can provide us with efficient tools for overcoming the well known difficulties in combining dichotomous and probabilistic models of belief change.

Loosening the Ties that Bind: A Learning Model of Agreement Flexibility

2001 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Koremenos
Keyword(s):  
Formal Model ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Detailed Case ◽  
New Information ◽  
Limited Duration ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Do So

How can states credibly make and keep agreements when they are uncertain about the distributional implications of their cooperation? They can do so by incorporating the proper degree of flexibility into their agreements. I develop a formal model in which an agreement characterized by uncertainty may be renegotiated to incorporate new information. The uncertainty is related to the division of gains under the agreement, with the parties resolving this uncertainty over time as they gain experience with the agreement. The greater the agreement uncertainty, the more likely states will want to limit the duration of the agreement and incorporate renegotiation. Working against renegotiation is noise—that is, variation in outcomes not resulting from the agreement. The greater the noise, the more difficult it is to learn how an agreement is actually working; hence, incorporating limited duration and renegotiation provisions becomes less valuable. In a detailed case study, I demonstrate that the form of uncertainty in my model corresponds to that experienced by the parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, who adopted the solution my model predicts.

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