The Exact Distribution of Divergence Times

2007 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. 635-640
Author(s):  
Saralees Nadarajah ◽  
Samuel Kotz
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Didier ◽  
Michel Laurin

AbstractBeing given a phylogenetic tree of both extant and extinct taxa in which the fossil ages are the only temporal information (namely, in which divergence times are considered unknown), we provide a method to compute the exact probability distribution of any divergence time of the tree with regard to any speciation (cladogenesis), extinction and fossilization rates under the Fossilized-Birth-Death model.We use this new method to obtain a probability distribution for the age of Amniota (the synapsid/sauropsid or bird/mammal divergence), one of the most-frequently used dating constraints. Our results suggest an older age (between about 322 and 340 Ma) than has been assumed by most studies that have used this constraint (which typically assumed a best estimate around 310-315 Ma) and provide, for the first time, a method to compute the shape of the probability density for this divergence time.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Didier

AbstractDating the tree of life is a task far more complicated that only determining the evolutionary relationships between species. It is therefore of interest to develop approaches able to deal with undated phylogenetic trees.The main result of this work is a method to compute probabilities of undated phylogenetic trees under piecewiseconstant-birth-death-sampling models by constraining some of the divergence times to belong to given time intervals and by allowing diversification shifts on certain clades. The computation is quite fast since its time complexity is quadratic with the size of the tree topology and linear with the number of time constraints and of “pieces” in the model.The interest of this computation method is illustrated with three applications, namely,to compute the exact distribution of the divergence times of a tree topology with temporal constraints,to directly sample the divergence times of a tree topology, andto test for a diversification shift at a given clade.


2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (6) ◽  
pp. 1068-1087 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Didier ◽  
Michel Laurin

Abstract Being given a phylogenetic tree of both extant and extinct taxa in which the fossil ages are the only temporal information (namely, in which divergence times are considered unknown), we provide a method to compute the exact probability distribution of any divergence time of the tree with regard to any speciation (cladogenesis), extinction, and fossilization rates under the Fossilized Birth–Death model. We use this new method to obtain a probability distribution for the age of Amniota (the synapsid/sauropsid or bird/mammal divergence), one of the most-frequently used dating constraints. Our results suggest an older age (between about 322 and 340 Ma) than has been assumed by most studies that have used this constraint (which typically assumed a best estimate around 310–315 Ma) and provide, for the first time, a method to compute the shape of the probability density for this divergence time. [Divergence times; fossil ages; fossilized birth–death model; probability distribution.]


Genetics ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 164 (4) ◽  
pp. 1645-1656 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce Rannala ◽  
Ziheng Yang

Abstract The effective population sizes of ancestral as well as modern species are important parameters in models of population genetics and human evolution. The commonly used method for estimating ancestral population sizes, based on counting mismatches between the species tree and the inferred gene trees, is highly biased as it ignores uncertainties in gene tree reconstruction. In this article, we develop a Bayes method for simultaneous estimation of the species divergence times and current and ancestral population sizes. The method uses DNA sequence data from multiple loci and extracts information about conflicts among gene tree topologies and coalescent times to estimate ancestral population sizes. The topology of the species tree is assumed known. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to integrate over uncertain gene trees and branch lengths (or coalescence times) at each locus as well as species divergence times. The method can handle any species tree and allows different numbers of sequences at different loci. We apply the method to published noncoding DNA sequences from the human and the great apes. There are strong correlations between posterior estimates of speciation times and ancestral population sizes. With the use of an informative prior for the human-chimpanzee divergence date, the population size of the common ancestor of the two species is estimated to be ∼20,000, with a 95% credibility interval (8000, 40,000). Our estimates, however, are affected by model assumptions as well as data quality. We suggest that reliable estimates have yet to await more data and more realistic models.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Alejandra Serna-Sánchez ◽  
Oscar A. Pérez-Escobar ◽  
Diego Bogarín ◽  
María Fernanda Torres-Jimenez ◽  
Astrid Catalina Alvarez-Yela ◽  
...  

AbstractRecent phylogenomic analyses based on the maternally inherited plastid organelle have enlightened evolutionary relationships between the subfamilies of Orchidaceae and most of the tribes. However, uncertainty remains within several subtribes and genera for which phylogenetic relationships have not ever been tested in a phylogenomic context. To address these knowledge-gaps, we here provide the most extensively sampled analysis of the orchid family to date, based on 78 plastid coding genes representing 264 species, 117 genera, 18 tribes and 28 subtribes. Divergence times are also provided as inferred from strict and relaxed molecular clocks and birth–death tree models. Our taxon sampling includes 51 newly sequenced plastid genomes produced by a genome skimming approach. We focus our sampling efforts on previously unplaced clades within tribes Cymbidieae and Epidendreae. Our results confirmed phylogenetic relationships in Orchidaceae as recovered in previous studies, most of which were recovered with maximum support (209 of the 262 tree branches). We provide for the first time a clear phylogenetic placement for Codonorchideae within subfamily Orchidoideae, and Podochilieae and Collabieae within subfamily Epidendroideae. We also identify relationships that have been persistently problematic across multiple studies, regardless of the different details of sampling and genomic datasets used for phylogenetic reconstructions. Our study provides an expanded, robust temporal phylogenomic framework of the Orchidaceae that paves the way for biogeographical and macroevolutionary studies.


2011 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 400-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianguang Guo ◽  
Xin Dai ◽  
Dali Chen ◽  
Theodore J. Papenfuss ◽  
Natalia B. Ananjeva ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 (1684) ◽  
pp. 20150046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory A. Wray

The timing of early animal evolution remains poorly resolved, yet remains critical for understanding nervous system evolution. Methods for estimating divergence times from sequence data have improved considerably, providing a more refined understanding of key divergences. The best molecular estimates point to the origin of metazoans and bilaterians tens to hundreds of millions of years earlier than their first appearances in the fossil record. Both the molecular and fossil records are compatible, however, with the possibility of tiny, unskeletonized, low energy budget animals during the Proterozoic that had planktonic, benthic, or meiofaunal lifestyles. Such animals would likely have had relatively simple nervous systems equipped primarily to detect food, avoid inhospitable environments and locate mates. The appearance of the first macropredators during the Cambrian would have changed the selective landscape dramatically, likely driving the evolution of complex sense organs, sophisticated sensory processing systems, and diverse effector systems involved in capturing prey and avoiding predation.


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