scholarly journals Farm wage and Rice Price dynamics in Bangladesh

Food Security ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Fuad Hassan ◽  
Lukas Kornher
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Standard Vector ◽  
Agricultural Wages ◽  
Pass Through

AbstractEmpirical findings explaining the wage-price nexus in Bangladesh are diverse and conflicting. A proper understanding of the relationship between food prices and farm wages is essential for planning policies in support of the wellbeing and food security of the rural poor. In exploring the link between food prices and rising agricultural wages, this study analyzes the dynamic relations between those two by using monthly data from 1994 to 2014. A standard vector error correction model (VECM) is implemented to determine the short-run and long-run relationships between wages and food prices in eight divisions in Bangladesh. In addition, we use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to estimate the pass-through coefficients and to compare the short-run effects of rice price and urban wage shocks on agricultural wages. We find statistical evidence for a structural break between January 2007 and January 2009 in the relationships of the variables in all divisions. Different to the period until 2007/2009, after the structural break, in six out of eight divisions, rice price shocks do not transmit to the farm wages in the short-run. Moreover, our findings show that in the long-run food prices have become less influential in explaining the changes in farm wages while the influence of urban wages has become stronger in some divisions.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals Financial Development and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p94
Author(s):  
Kando Serge Gbagbeu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

In this study, we concern mainly about the short and long-run relationship between economic growth and financial development. We use a multi-steps methodology, namely the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach to test this relationship in Côte d’Ivoire from 1980 to 2014. Following our results, we conclude that there is a unidirectional causal relationship, both long run and short run, between GDP per capita and financial development index in Côte d’Ivoire running from economic growth to financial development.

Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL

2021 ◽  
pp. 245513332110507
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Uche ◽  
Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The dynamic relationship between exchange rate movements (appreciation and depreciation) and macroeconomic fundamentals had preoccupied the minds of researchers across the globe. Consequently, extensive research works have been conducted to unravel the puzzle; however, the findings remain inconclusive. The inconclusiveness of these researches may not be unconnected with the choice of model, the omission of key variables and erroneous assumption of symmetric interrelationships of the variables. To mitigate such error and fill the observed research gaps, this study leveraged on the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag to trace the possible asymmetric pass-through of the exchange rate to output growth in Nigeria. The study made use of monthly time series for the period 2000M1–2018M12 for empirical estimations. The empirical findings reveal an asymmetric pass-through from exchange rate to productivity. Exchange rate depreciation led to output retardation in the short run, but neither appreciation nor depreciation of the exchange affected output in the long run. The findings highlight that exchange rate depreciation of the local currency does not improve the country’s productivity. This reveals a disconnection and misalignment between exchange and productivity in Nigeria. The findings call for proper alignment of the Naira exchange rate with the U.S. dollar for improved productivity in the economy.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

Globalisation, Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-212
Author(s):  
NWOSA Philip Ifeakachukwu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Financial Globalisation

This article examines the link between globalisation, economic growth and income inequality in Nigeria using annual secondary data over the period 1981–2018. Specifically, it attempts to examine the following questions: (a) What is the direction of causation among globalisation, economic growth and inequality? (b) What is the impact of globalisation and economic growth on inequality? (iii) Do trade globalisation and financial globalisation have differential impacts on inequality in Nigeria? The article used both vector error correction modelling (VECM) and auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) techniques. The VECM results show a unidirectional causality from inequality and globalisation to economic growth in the long run, whereas a unidirectional causation was observed from inequality to economic growth in the short run. The ARDL estimate shows that globalisation and economic growth are significant determinants of inequality in Nigeria. Furthermore, it is observed that trade and financial globalisation influenced income inequality differently. In the light of these findings, the article recommends that the foreign direct investment should be channelled towards empowering the poor, and the dividends of economic growth should be evenly distributed to reduce the income inequality gap.

scholarly journals Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ojonugwa Usman ◽  
Osama Elsalih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Real ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Linearity Test

This paper attempts to test the pass-through of the real exchange rate (RERT) to unemployment in Brazil over the period 1981M1–2015M11 using linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. The result of the linearity test suggests that the relationship between RERT and unemployment is linear in the short-run and nonlinear in the long-run. Therefore, using the symmetric ARDL model for the short-run analysis, we find that an increase in the RERT decreases the unemployment rate. The result of the nonlinear ARDL for the long-run analysis shows that the unemployment rate reacts to the RERT appreciations and depreciations differently with depreciations having a strong effect. However, the pass-through of the RERT to unemployment is incomplete both in the short- and long-run. These findings have important policy implications for the designing of appropriate monetary policy in response to a rise in unemployment resulting from a change in the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Growth in Jordan? Evidence from Ordinary Least Square Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Mohamed Ibrahim Mugableh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The main objective of this paper is to analyze equilibrium and dynamic causality relationships between monetary policy tools and economic growth in Jordan for the period (1990-2017). For this purpose, it considers the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction (VEC) models estimations. The results of ARDL approach show that monetary policy variables (i.e., real interest rate and money supply) have positive impact on economic growth in long-run and short-run except inflation rate. In addition, the results of VECM indicate bidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and monetary policy variables in long-run and short-run.

scholarly journals Are Energy Consumption, Population Density and Exports Causing Environmental Damage in China? Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Vector Error Correction Model Approaches

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3749
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman ◽  
Xuan-Binh (Benjamin) Vu
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper investigates whether energy consumption, population density, and exports are the main factors causing environmental damage in China. Using annual data from 1971–2018, unit root tests are applied for the stationarity analyses, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds tests are used for the long-run relationships between the variables. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger approach is employed to examine the causal relationships amongst the variables. Our findings show that the selected variables are cointegrated, and that energy consumption and economic growth are identified as the main reasons for CO2 emissions in both the short-run and long-run. In contrast, exports reduce CO2 emissions in the long-run. Short-run unidirectional Granger causality is found from economic growth to energy consumption, CO2 emissions and exports, and from CO2 emissions to energy consumption and exports. Moreover, long-run causal links exist between CO2 emissions and exports. Five policy recommendations are made following the obtained results.

Measuring Monetary Policy in Germany: A Structural Vector Error Correction Approach

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imke Brüggemann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
German Data ◽  
Structural Vector

Abstract A structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is used to investigate several monetary policy issues. While being data-oriented the SVEC framework allows structural modeling of the short-run and long-run properties of the data. The statistical model is estimated with monthly German data for 1975-98 where a structural break is detected in 1984. After splitting the sample, three stable long-run relations are found in each subsample which can be interpreted in terms of a moneydemand equation, a policy rule and a relation for real output, respectively. Since the cointegration restrictions imply a particular shape of the long-run covariance matrix this information can be used to distinguish between permanent and transitory innovations in the estimated system. Additional restrictions are introduced to identify a monetary policy shock.

scholarly journals Interest rate pass-through: a nonlinear vector error-correction approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Ksawery Popiel
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nonlinear Vector ◽  
Pass Through

AbstractThis paper analyzes pass-through from money market rates to consumer retail loan and deposit rates in Canada from 1983 to 2015 using a nonlinear vector error-correction model. This model permits estimation of long-run pass-through coefficients while simultaneously accounting for asymmetric adjustments and short-run dynamics. In contrast to empirical frameworks used in previous studies, it also allows testing of commonly made assumptions such as exogeneity of the market rate, making inference more robust. I find that pass-through was complete for all rates before the financial crisis although only after the mid 1990s for the 1 year mortgage rate. Since the end of the 2008–2009 recession, pass-through remains complete in the mortgage market but has significantly declined for deposit rates. Furthermore, many rates adjust asymmetrically but the direction of rigidity differs among rates and time periods.

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