Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation and Temperature in the Ghataprabha Sub-basin Using CMIP5 Models

MAPAN ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nagendra Reddy ◽  
Nagraj S. Patil ◽  
M. Nataraja
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

scholarly journals Extreme precipitation and temperature events in the past decades and its future impacts in the São Paulo Macro Metropolis.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thamiris Luisa de Oliveira Brandão Campos ◽  
Edmilson Dias de Freitas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
South Atlantic Convergence Zone ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>The São Paulo Macro Metropolis (SPMM) is composed of five metropolitan regions (i.e., São Paulo, Campinas, Paraíba Valley and North Coast, Sorocaba, and Santos), two urban agglomerations (i.e., Piracicaba and Jundiaí) and a microregion of Bragança. With an estimated 33 million inhabitants over an area 53,000 km<sup>2</sup>. Urban areas take up 11,000 km<sup>2</sup> of this area, represented by 174 municipalities that account for nearly 73.9% of the state’s total population. The SPMM is already experiencing the impacts of severe climate events. It is situated along a transition climatic region between humid subtropical and tropical climates. Meteorological systems such as cold fronts, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (ZCAS), sea breezes, urban heat islands, and other local circulations associated with topography favor the occurrence of severe weather at different time scales. The study aims at understanding climate change effects on the intensity and frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes in the SPMM, contributing to the establishment of policies to reduce the existing socioenvironmental risks in urban areas. For this, the ability of observation systems, reanalysis (ERA5, ERA40, NCEP/NCAR, and Terra Climate), and remote sensing (CMAP and CPC) were analyzed and used to show the decadal evolution of extreme events in SPMM. We also investigated the potential of CMIP5 models to simulate the extreme precipitation and temperature events in the SPMM that occurred between the 1950s and 2005. Future climate changes in the SPMM were analyzed based on CMIP5 models that best simulate past extreme events in the SPMM, considering the different carbon emission scenarios. This study is important to develop adaptive strategies to deal with climate change impacts on urban areas, such as droughts and floods.</p>

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Shiyang River Basin and the Adaptive Measures for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction

2013 ◽  
Vol 405-408 ◽  
pp. 2167-2171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhou Li ◽  
Xiao Yan Li ◽  
Juan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Energy Conservation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Climate is an important factor which formed and affected surface water resources. Through sensitivity analysis of natural runoff towards climate change, assuming the main factors effect runoff are precipitation and temperature, then according to the possible tendency of climate changes in the future, set climate scenarios, and use the hydrological model simulate the changes trend of runoff under different climate scenarios, thereby analyze the climate change impacts on surface water resources. The results show that annual runoff will be increased with the increasing annual precipitation, and it will be reduced with rise of annual temperature, the sensitivity that annual runoff towards the change of precipitation and temperature are equally notable, both of them are two major factors impact on the change of runoff and the precipitation change impacts on annual runoff will be even more obvious in flood season. Last, with the global warming trend, put forward the corresponding adaptive measures of energy conservation and emissions reduction。

scholarly journals Precipitation and Temperature in Costa Rica at the End of the Century Based on NEX-GDDP Projected Scenarios

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1323
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Castillo ◽  
Jorge A. Amador
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The evaluation of intraseasonal, seasonal, and annual variability of rainfall and temperature extremes, while using climate change scenarios data, is extremely important for socio-economic activities, such as water resources management. Costa Rica, a climate change hotspot, is largely dependent on rainfall for socioeconomic activities; hence, the relevance of this study. Based on the NEX-GDDP, rainfall and temperature range were analyzed for Costa Rica at the end of the century (2070–2099), while using 1970–1999 as a baseline for six available meteorological stations. Differences between the multimodel ensembles of two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and the historical information were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion region for climate change impacts in Central America, for which projected scenarios suggest an early onset of the rainy season, and a decline in the mid-summer drought (MSD) minimum. The assessment of model data in some regions of Costa Rica, for which historical data were available, suggests that the latter does not capture a well-known regional climate feature, the MSD, in both precipitation and temperature range well. The availability of observed past data sources is a major limitation of this research; however, with the station data used, it is still possible to draw some conclusions regarding future climate in some regions of Costa Rica, especially in the northwest side of the country, where past data are consistent with model information, providing a more reliable picture of changes in climate there that has potential implications for socioeconomic sectors.

Climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Prince Edward Island, Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Zeeshan Bhatti ◽  
Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque ◽  
Nicholas Krouglicof ◽  
Wayne Peters ◽  
Bishnu Acharya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prince Edward Island ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

scholarly journals Projection of important climate variables in large cities under the CMIP5–RCP scenarios using SDSM and fuzzy downscaling models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Shakeri ◽  
Homayoun Motiee ◽  
Edward McBean
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Stability ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Large Cities

Abstract Climate change impacts are among the many challenges facing management of large cities. This study assesses the important climate variables under climate change impacts in Tehran, Iran, for 2021–2040. Eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were used, and seven climate variables were projected utilizing the Fuzzy DownScaling Model (FDSM) and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The FDSM and SDSM results underline the high performance of both models and the important capability of the FDSM, showing the increasing trend of annual changes in mean temperature (Tmean) and maximum temperature (Tmax), precipitation, and the mean wind speed (Wmean). The maximum increase of annual average in Tmean and Tmax and the Wmean among all scenarios will be in the order of 1.29 °C, 1.57 °C, and 0.8 m/s (for RCP8.5), and also the maximum increases of annual average precipitation will be 10 mm (for RCP2.6). Furthermore, the monthly long-term averages of Tmean and Tmax in all three scenarios show significant increases in summer. For precipitation, relative stability in summer, and increases in winter and early spring are predicted, but the changes in minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine hours indicate relative stability.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (EP) regulated by increasing stratification and phytoplankton community structure in CMIP5 models

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 12851-12897 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Fu ◽  
J. Randerson ◽  
J. K. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Community Structure ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Phytoplankton Community ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Phytoplankton Community Structure ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract. We examine climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (sinking particulate flux; EP) with simulations from nine Earth System Models (ESMs) performed in the framework of the fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced considerably by the end of the century for the intense warming scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Relative to the 1990s, global NPP in the 2090s is reduced by 2.3–16 % and EP by 7–18 %. The models with the largest increases in stratification (and largest relative reductions in NPP and EP) also show the largest positive biases in stratification for the contemporary period, suggesting some potential overestimation of climate impacts on NPP and EP. All of the CMIP5 models show an increase in stratification in response to surface ocean warming and freshening that is accompanied by decreases in NPP, EP, and surface macronutrient concentrations. There is considerable variability across models in the absolute magnitude of these fluxes, surface nutrient concentrations, and their perturbations by climate change, indicating large model uncertainties. The negative response of NPP and EP to stratification increases reflects a bottom-up control, as nutrient flux to the euphotic zone declines. Models with dynamic phytoplankton community structure show larger declines in EP than in NPP. This is driven by phytoplankton community composition shifts, with a reduced percentage of NPP by large phytoplankton under RCP 8.5, as smaller phytoplankton are favored under the increasing nutrient stress. Thus, projections of the NPP response to climate change in the CMIP5 models are critically dependent on the simulated phytoplankton community structure, the efficiency of the biological pump, and the resulting (highly variable) levels of regenerated production. Community composition is represented relatively simply in the CMIP5 models, and should be expanded to better capture the spatial patterns and the changes in export efficiency that are necessary for predicting climate impacts on NPP.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Yangtze River Discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve J. Birkinshaw ◽  
Selma B. Guerreiro ◽  
Alex Nicholson ◽  
Qiuhua Liang ◽  
Paul Quinn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Three Gorges ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
The Three Gorges ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Three Gorges Dam

Abstract. The Yangtze River Basin is home to more than 400 million people, contributes to nearly half of China’s food production, and is susceptible to major floods. Therefore planning for climate change impacts on river discharges is essential. We used a physically-based distributed hydrological model, Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three Gorges Dam at Yichang (1,007,200 km2), obtaining an excellent match between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996–2000) and 0.92 for the validation period (2001–2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of climate change on river discharge for 2041–2070 for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basin’s annual precipitation varied between −3.6 % and +14.8 % but increases in temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in projected changes in the basin’s annual discharge from −29.8 % to +16.0 %. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze basin in some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future climate improve there will remain large uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze.

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