The role of climate models in adaptation decision-making: the case of the UK climate projections 2009

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liam James Heaphy
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Adaptation Decision ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Lewis fry Richardson Medal Lecture – How many modes are neededto predict climate bifurcations?: Lessons from an experiment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bérengère Dubrulle ◽  
François Daviaud ◽  
Davide Faranda ◽  
Louis Marié ◽  
Brice Saint-Michel
Keyword(s):  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Environmental Policies ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Finite Resolution ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Lewis Fry Richardson ◽  
Do So

Abstract. According to everyone’s experience, predicting the weather reliably over more than 8 days seems an impossible taskfor our best weather agencies. At the same time, politicians and citizens are asking scientists for climate projections severaldecades into the future to guide economic and environmental policies, especially regarding the maximum admissible emissions of CO2. To what extent is this request scientifically admissible? In this lecture we will investigate this question, focusing on the topic of predictions of transitions between metastable statesof the atmospheric or oceanic circulations. Two relevant exemples are the switching between zonal and blocked atmosphericcirculation at midlatitudes and the alternance of El Niño and La Niña phases in the Pacific ocean. The main issue is whetherpresent climate models, that necessarily have a finite resolution and a smaller number of degrees of freedom than the actualterrestrial system, are able to reproduce such spontaneous or forced transitions. To do so, we will draw an analogy betweenclimate observations and results obtained in our group on a laboratory-scale, turbulent, von Kármán flow, in which spontaneoustransitions between different states of the circulation take place. We will detail the analogy, and investigate the nature of thetransitions, the number of degrees of freedom that characterizes the latter and discuss the effect of reducing the number ofdegrees of freedom in such systems. We will also discuss the role of fluctuations and their origin, and stress the importance ofdescribing very small scales to capture fluctuations of correct intensity and scale.

The leadership role of women in social regeneration in the UK

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Su Maddock
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Leadership Role ◽  
Chief Executives ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transforming Leadership ◽  
Role Of Women ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Insight Into

PurposeProposes that arguing for greater access for women is essential but not sufficient to drive equality or the spirit of diversity.Design/methodology/approachExplores the role that women and others can play in broadening agendas and in transforming managerial and regeneration practices.FindingsA few innovative chief executives are leading the way and showing what transforming leadership is about in practice. In spite of this the intransigent lack of diversity within decision‐making bodies produces a brake on positive social change.Originality/valueProvides an insight into the leadership role of women in social regeneration.

scholarly journals Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Charles Perry ◽  
Emilie Vanvyve ◽  
Richard A. Betts ◽  
Erika J. Palin
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Past and future trends in the frequency of high danger fire weather conditions have been analysed for the UK. An analysis of satellite-derived burned area data from the last 18 years has identified the seasonal cycle with a peak in spring and a secondary peak in summer, the high level of interannual variability, and the lack of a significant trend despite some large events occurring in the last few years. These results were confirmed with a longer series of fire weather indices back to 1979. The Initial Spread Index (ISI) has been used for spring, as this reflects the moisture of fine fuel surface vegetation, whereas conditions conducive to summer wildfires are hot, dry weather reflected in the moisture of deeper organic layers which is encompassed in the Fire Weather Index (FWI). Future projections are assessed using an ensemble of regional climate models from the UK Climate Projections, combining variables to derive the fire weather indices. The results show a large increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. At 2 °C global warming relative to 1850–1900, the frequency of days with “very high” fire danger is projected to double compared to a recent historical period. This frequency increases by 5 times at 4 °C of global warming. Smaller increases are projected for spring, with a 150 % increase for England at 2 °C of global warming and a doubling at 4 °C. A particularly large projected increase for late summer and early autumn suggests a possible extension of the wildfire season, depending on fuel availability. These results suggest that wildfire can be considered an “emergent risk” for the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change in future. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.

13. The judiciary

2021 ◽  
pp. 303-326
Author(s):  
Anne Dennett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Judicial Independence ◽  
Judicial Power ◽  
Executive Power ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
External Influences ◽  
Political Interference ◽  
The Uk

This chapter examines the role of the judiciary in the UK constitution, the critically important concepts of judicial independence and neutrality, accountability of judges, and judicial power. The UK courts administer justice; uphold the rule of law; and act as a check on executive power. Judicial independence requires that judges should be free from external influences in their decision-making, and make decisions without political interference or fear of reprisal. Meanwhile, judicial neutrality means that judges should determine legal disputes impartially, objectively, and solely by applying the law. At first sight, judicial accountability seems inconsistent with being independent, but it is essential that the judiciary adheres to the highest standards in carrying out its functions. In the absence of a codified constitution, the boundaries of judicial power operate within a framework of constitutional principles and conventions, but there is debate over the limits of that power.

13. The judiciary

2019 ◽  
pp. 288-310
Author(s):  
Anne Dennett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Judicial Independence ◽  
Judicial Power ◽  
Executive Power ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
External Influences ◽  
Political Interference ◽  
The Uk

This chapter examines the role of the judiciary in the UK constitution, the critically important concepts of judicial independence and neutrality, accountability of judges, and judicial power. The UK courts administer justice; uphold the rule of law; and act as a check on executive power. Judicial independence requires that judges should be free from external influences in their decision-making, and make decisions without political interference or fear of reprisal. Meanwhile, judicial neutrality means that judges should determine legal disputes impartially, objectively, and solely by applying the law. At first sight, judicial accountability seems inconsistent with being independent, but it is essential that the judiciary adheres to the highest standards in carrying out its functions. In the absence of a codified constitution, the boundaries of judicial power operate within a framework of constitutional principles and conventions, but there is debate over the limits of that power.

Greater Future U.K. Winter Precipitation Increase in New Convection-Permitting Scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (17) ◽  
pp. 7303-7318
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
Nigel M. Roberts ◽  
Giorgia Fosser ◽  
Gill M. Martin ◽  
Adrian P. Lock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Precipitation Occurrence ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Driving Model ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Convection Parameterization

AbstractFor the first time, a model at a resolution on par with operational weather forecast models has been used for national climate scenarios. An ensemble of 12 climate change projections at convection-permitting (2.2 km) scale has been run for the United Kingdom, as part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) project. Contrary to previous studies, these show greater future increases in winter mean precipitation in the convection-permitting model compared with the coarser (12 km) driving model. A large part (60%) of the future increase in winter precipitation occurrence over land comes from an increase in convective showers in the 2.2 km model, which are most likely triggered over the sea and advected inland with potentially further development. In the 12 km model, increases in precipitation occurrence over the sea, largely due to an increase in convective showers, do not extend over the land. This is partly due to known limitations of the convection parameterization scheme, used in conventional coarse-resolution climate models, which acts locally without direct memory and so has no ability to advect diagnosed convection over the land or trigger new showers along convective outflow boundaries. This study shows that the importance of accurately representing convection extends beyond short-duration precipitation extremes and the summer season to projecting future changes in mean precipitation in winter.

scholarly journals Communicating future climate projections of precipitation change

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Daron ◽  
Susanne Lorenz ◽  
Andrea Taylor ◽  
Suraje Dessai
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Future Climate Projections ◽  
Made In

AbstractUnderstanding how precipitation may change in the future is important for guiding climate change adaptation. Climate models are the primary tools for providing information on future precipitation change, though communicating and interpreting results of different model simulations is challenging. Using an online survey, completed by producers and users of climate model information, we compare and evaluate interpretations of different approaches used to summarise and visualise future climate projections. Results reveal large differences in interpretations of precipitation change arising from choices made in summarising and visualising the data. Respondents interpret significantly smaller ranges of future precipitation change when provided with the multi-model ensemble mean or percentile information, which are commonly used to summarise climate model projections, compared to information about the full ensemble. The ensemble mean is found to be particularly misleading, even when used with information to show model agreement in the sign of change. We conclude that these approaches can lead to distorted interpretations which may impact on adaptation policy and decision-making. To help improve the interpretation and use of climate projections in decision-making, regular testing of visualisations and sustained engagement with target audiences is required to determine the most effective and appropriate visualisation approaches.

scholarly journals Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
David A. Stainforth ◽  
Seamus Bradley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Independence Number ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Adaptation Decision ◽  
The Uk

AbstractIn this paper, we assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support climate adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 as an example of such information. Their probabilistic, global, and regional land projections exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of constructing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate along six quality dimensions: transparency; theory; independence, number, and comprehensiveness of evidence; and historical empirical adequacy. The assessment produced two major insights. First, a major issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency, which is particularly problematic since the information is directed towards non-expert users who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections because the former lack both transparency and a theory underpinning the method used to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. The assessment also shows how different dimensions are satisfied depending on the evidence used, the methodology chosen to analyze the evidence, and the type of statements that are constructed in the different strands of UKCP18. This research highlights the importance of knowledge quality assessment of regional climate information that intends to support climate change adaptation decisions.

Stakeholder Participation for the Legacy Ponds and Legacy Silos (LP&LS) Facility at Sellafield, Cumbria, UK: The Nature and Effectiveness of the Dialogue

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Whitton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Stakeholder Participation ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Initial Contact ◽  
The West ◽  
Information Updates ◽  
Societal Impacts ◽  
The Uk

The Legacy Ponds and Silos (LP&S) facilities are part of the UK nuclear legacy located at the Sellafield Site, Cumbria. There are four individual facilities containing nuclear wastes that have accumulated over a period of approximately 50 years. Waste retrieval and conditioning, in preparation for decommissioning, is currently being carried out by the site operator. LP&S have recently proposed a re-engagement with stakeholders following the initial engagement in December 2005. This paper reviews this earlier engagement in terms of the nature of dialogue that was carried out when compared against definitions of deliberation provided in the literature. The aim of this paper is to provide those planning future engagement with a better understanding of how the nature of dialogue can vary and uses participation and deliberation as indicators of effective engagement. A concern of those working towards a programme of effective stakeholder participation in 2005 was how to ensure genuine dialogue and stakeholder representation in such a strictly controlled and regulated environment with a technical complexity that challenges technical specialist and layperson alike. LP&S recognised that effective dialogue with stakeholders on the available technical options and their associated societal impacts would form a significant part of this process if options were to prove resilient. However, the challenge presented to LP&S was how to engage stakeholders on a variety of projects, whilst ensuring the output could be used by the projects as part of their technical decision making. Initial contact was made with stakeholders in December 2005, as part of a ‘Baseline’ Best Practicable Environmental Option (BPEO) study. A BPEO study leads to decisions on waste management based on an integrated assessment of alternative options, on the basis of factors such as the occupational and environmental risks, the environmental impacts, costs and social implications of the options. An engagement framework was also developed by LP&S to understand the engagement within the context of that taking place nationally and internationally. LP&S plan to reconvene stakeholders as part of the commitment made to them in 2006 to review progress on decommissioning projects. Currently, the strategy by which this will be achieved is unclear, however it is proposed that rather than full engagement, LP&S will provide a series of information updates to the West Cumbria Site Stakeholder Group (WCSSG). Representing local interests only and potentially reducing the opportunity for deliberation, further research is recommended to assess the nature of dialogue and the role of deliberation in this type of forum.

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