Impacts of climate change on stream flow and water availability in Anger sub-basin, Nile Basin of Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1755-1764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geremew Fekadu Boru ◽  
Zelalem Biru Gonfa ◽  
Girma Mamo Diga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3046
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sándor ◽  
Túri Zoltán
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on stream flow and hydro power generation in the Alpine region

2016 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Wagner ◽  
M. Themeßl ◽  
A. Schüppel ◽  
A. Gobiet ◽  
H. Stigler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Alpine Region ◽  
Hydro Power ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge and groundwater in a headwater catchment of the Upper Nile Basin, Uganda

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1297-1308 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. G. Kingston ◽  
R. G. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Freshwater Resources ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. The changing availability of freshwater resources is likely to be one of the most important consequences of projected 21st century climate change for both human and natural systems. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the precise impacts of climate change on water resources, due in part due to uncertainty in GCM projections of climate change. Here we explore the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater resources in a humid, tropical catchment (the River Mitano) in the Upper Nile Basin of Uganda. Uncertainty associated with GCM structure and climate sensitivity is explored, as well as parameter specification within hydrological models. These aims are achieved by running pattern-scaled output from seven GCMs through a semi-distributed hydrological model of the catchment (developed using SWAT). Importantly, use of pattern-scaled GCM output allows investigation of specific thresholds of global climate change including the purported 2 °C threshold of "dangerous" climate change. In-depth analysis of results based on the HadCM3 GCM climate scenarios shows that annual river discharge first increases, then declines with rising global mean air temperature. A coincidental shift from a bimodal to unimodal discharge regime also results from a projected reduction in baseflow (groundwater discharge). Both of these changes occur after a 4 °C rise in global mean air temperature. These results are, however, highly GCM dependent, in both the magnitude and direction of change. This dependence stems primarily from projected differences in GCM scenario precipitation rather than temperature. GCM-related uncertainty is far greater than that associated with climate sensitivity or hydrological model parameterisation.

scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sandor ◽  
Turi Zoltan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrology of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which climate change impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Result showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84oC, 2.6oC and 4.1oC in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2% and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 respectively. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.

scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of climate change on dependable flow and potential irrigable area using the SWAT model. The case of Maasin River watershed in Laguna, Philippines

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-98
Author(s):  
Lanie A. Alejo ◽  
Victor B. Ella
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature brought about by climate change affect water resources availability for rice production areas. There are currently no published applications of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model on quantified effects of climate variability on irrigation service areas for rice production. The study assessed the impacts of climate change on dependable flow and potential irrigable areas of the Maasin River in Laguna, Philippines. Projected variations of rainfall and temperature in 2020 and 2050 developed using PRECIS model based on special report on emission scenarios were employed. The SWAT model was then used to simulate stream flow for each climate change scenario, from which dependable flows were quantified using flow duration analysis. Diversion water requirements for the rice areas in the watershed were determined using CROPWAT. Based on dependable flows and irrigation demand, the potential irrigable areas were estimated. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model showed satisfactory performance in stream flow simulations. The dependable flow in irrigation systems may decline by more than 50% in 2020 and by as much as 97% in 2050, because of seasonal changes in rainfall. In effect, the potential irrigable area may decrease to less than half of the current service area depending on the level of greenhouse gases emissions. SWAT water balance projections suggest surface runoff during wet seasons and increase annual groundwater recharge are possible sources of supplemental irrigation. Provisions of suitable storage reservoir facilities and groundwater development projects will alleviate water scarce conditions. The study demonstrated a technique that may be applied in other irrigation systems in the Philippines and in other countries to quantify the effects of climate change on dependable flows and potential irrigable areas. It can serve as an input to water resources planning and policy recommendations for climate change adaptation and risk reduction strategies. This technique can also be used to assess water resources in other perennial rivers and its viability for the development of new irrigation systems in the Philippines.

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