A novel monitoring protocol to evaluate large-scale forest restoration projects in the tropics

Abstract. To achieve the Paris Agreement requires aggressive mitigation strategies alongside negative emission technologies. Recent studies suggest that increasing tree cover can make a substantial contribution to negative emissions, with the tropics being the most suitable region from a biogeophysical perspective. Yet these studies typically do not account for subsequent carbon cycle and climate feedback processes of large-scale land use change. Here we quantify the maximum potential temperature and CO2 benefits from pantropical forest restoration, including earth system feedbacks, using a fully-coupled, emission-driven Earth System Model (HadGEM2-ES). We perform an idealised experiment where all land use in the tropics is stopped and vegetation is allowed to recover, on top of an aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6). We find that tropical restoration of 1529 Mha increases carbon stored in live biomass by 130 Pg C by 2100 CE. Whilst avoiding deforestation and tropical restoration in the tropics removes 42 Pg C compared to RCP 2.6, feedback processes mean that carbon in the atmosphere only reduces by 18 Pg C by 2100. The resulting, small CO2 (9 ppm) benefit does not translate to a detectable reduction in global surface air temperature compared to the control experiment. The greatest carbon benefit is achieved 30–50 years after restoration before the Earth System response adjusts to the new land-use regime and declining fossil fuel use. We identify three model-independent key points: (i) the carbon benefit of restoration is CO2-scenario dependent, (ii) in a world that follows Paris Agreement emission cuts restoration is best deployed immediately, and (iii) the ocean carbon feedbacks will reduce the efficacy of negative emissions technologies. We conclude that forest restoration can reduce peak CO2 mid-century, but can only be a modest contribution to negative emissions.

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Natural regeneration as a tool for large-scale forest restoration in the tropics: prospects and challenges

Biotropica ◽

10.1111/btp.12381 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 48 (6) ◽

pp. 716-730 ◽

Cited By ~ 123

Author(s):

Robin L. Chazdon ◽

Manuel R. Guariguata

Keyword(s):

Natural Regeneration ◽

Forest Restoration ◽

Large Scale ◽

The Tropics

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Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (8) ◽

pp. 2627-2647

Author(s):

Alexander Koch ◽

Chris Brierley ◽

Simon L. Lewis

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

Forest Restoration ◽

Large Scale ◽

Paris Agreement ◽

System Response ◽

Earth System ◽

The Earth ◽

Negative Emissions ◽

The Tropics

Abstract. To achieve the Paris Agreement requires aggressive mitigation strategies alongside negative emission technologies. Recent studies suggest that increasing tree cover can make a substantial contribution to negative emissions, with the tropics being the most suitable region from a biogeophysical perspective. Yet these studies typically do not account for subsequent carbon cycle and climate responses to large-scale land-use change. Here we quantify the maximum potential temperature and CO2 benefits from pantropical forest restoration, including the Earth system response, using a fully coupled, emission-driven Earth system model (HadGEM2-ES). We perform an idealised experiment where all land use in the tropics is stopped and vegetation is allowed to recover, on top of an aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP2.6). We find that tropical restoration of 1529 Mha increases carbon stored in live biomass by 130 Pg C by 2100 CE. Whilst avoiding deforestation and tropical restoration in the tropics removes 42 Pg C compared to RCP2.6, the subsequent reduction in extratropical and ocean carbon uptake means that carbon in the atmosphere only reduces by 18 Pg C by 2100. The resulting small CO2 (9 ppm) benefit does not translate to a detectable reduction in global surface air temperature compared to the control experiment. The greatest carbon benefit is achieved 30–50 years after restoration before the Earth system response adjusts to the new land-use regime and declining fossil fuel use. Comparing our results with previous modelling studies, we identify two model-independent key points: (i) in a world where emission reductions follow the Paris Agreement, restoration is best deployed immediately, and (ii) the global carbon cycle response to reduced emissions limits the efficacy of negative emissions technologies by more than half. We conclude that forest restoration can reduce peak CO2 mid-century, but it can only modestly contribute to negative emissions.

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Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ◽

10.1038/s41612-021-00190-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mateusz Taszarek ◽

John T. Allen ◽

Mattia Marchio ◽

Harold E. Brooks

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Convective Precipitation ◽

The Past ◽

The Tropics ◽

Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

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Large-scale screening of natural genetic resource in the hydrocarbon-producing microalga Botrycoccus braunii identified novel fast-growing strains

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-86760-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Koji Kawamura ◽

Suzune Nishikawa ◽

Kotaro Hirano ◽

Ardianor Ardianor ◽

Rudy Agung Nugroho ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Biomass Productivity ◽

Botryococcus Braunii ◽

Algal Biofuel ◽

Fast Growing ◽

Wild Strains ◽

Glass Tubes ◽

The Tropics ◽

Large Scale Screening ◽

Hydrocarbon Productivity

AbstractAlgal biofuel research aims to make a renewable, carbon–neutral biofuel by using oil-producing microalgae. The freshwater microalga Botryococcus braunii has received much attention due to its ability to accumulate large amounts of petroleum-like hydrocarbons but suffers from slow growth. We performed a large-scale screening of fast-growing strains with 180 strains isolated from 22 ponds located in a wide geographic range from the tropics to cool-temperate. A fast-growing strain, Showa, which recorded the highest productivities of algal hydrocarbons to date, was used as a benchmark. The initial screening was performed by monitoring optical densities in glass tubes and identified 9 wild strains with faster or equivalent growth rates to Showa. The biomass-based assessments showed that biomass and hydrocarbon productivities of these strains were 12–37% and 11–88% higher than that of Showa, respectively. One strain, OIT-678 established a new record of the fastest growth rate in the race B strains with a doubling time of 1.2 days. The OIT-678 had 36% higher biomass productivity, 34% higher hydrocarbon productivity, and 20% higher biomass density than Showa at the same cultivation conditions, suggesting the potential of the new strain to break the record for the highest productivities of hydrocarbons.

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Dipole patterns in tropical precipitation were pervasive across landmasses throughout Marine Isotope Stage 5

Communications Earth & Environment ◽

10.1038/s43247-021-00133-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Katrina Nilsson-Kerr ◽

Pallavi Anand ◽

Philip B. Holden ◽

Steven C. Clemens ◽

Melanie J. Leng

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Marine Isotope Stage ◽

Convergence Zone ◽

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Tropical Precipitation ◽

Rainfall Patterns ◽

Marine Isotope Stage 5 ◽

Climate Cooling ◽

The Tropics

AbstractMost of Earth’s rain falls in the tropics, often in highly seasonal monsoon rains, which are thought to be coupled to the inter-hemispheric migrations of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in response to the seasonal cycle of insolation. Yet characterization of tropical rainfall behaviour in the geologic past is poor. Here we combine new and existing hydroclimate records from six large-scale tropical regions with fully independent model-based rainfall reconstructions across the last interval of sustained warmth and ensuing climate cooling between 130 to 70 thousand years ago (Marine Isotope Stage 5). Our data-model approach reveals large-scale heterogeneous rainfall patterns in response to changes in climate. We note pervasive dipole-like tropical precipitation patterns, as well as different loci of precipitation throughout Marine Isotope Stage 5 than recorded in the Holocene. These rainfall patterns cannot be solely attributed to meridional shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.

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Stand Stability of Pure and Mixed-Eucalyptus Forests of Different Tree Species in a Typhoon-Prone Area

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12040458 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 458

Author(s):

Haiyan Deng ◽

Linlin Shen ◽

Jiaqi Yang ◽

Xiaoyong Mo

Keyword(s):

Tree Species ◽

Forest Restoration ◽

Large Scale ◽

Stand Structure ◽

Pinus Elliottii ◽

Stem Form ◽

Tree Species Composition ◽

Eucalyptus Plantation ◽

Mixed Plantation ◽

Preservation Rate

Background and Objectives: The stable stand structure of mixed plantations is the basis of giving full play to forest ecological function and benefit. However, the monocultural Eucalyptus plantations with large-scale and successive planting that caused ecological problems such as reduced species diversity and loss of soil nutrients have presented to be unstable and vulnerable, especially in typhoon-prone areas. The objective of this study was to evaluate the nonspatial structure difference and the stand stability of pure and mixed-Eucalyptus forests, to find out the best mixed pattern of Eucalyptus forests with the most stability in typhoon-prone areas. Materials and Methods: In this study, we randomly investigated eight plots of 30 m × 30 m in pure and mixed-Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus urophylla S. T. Blake × E. grandis W. Hill) plantations of different tree species (Neolamarckia cadamba (Roxb.) Bosser, Acacia mangium Willd., and Pinus elliottii var. Elliottii Engelm. × P. caribaea Morelet) on growth status, characterized and compared the distribution of nonspatial structure of the monoculture and mixtures, and evaluated the stand quality and stability from eight indexes of the nonspatial structure, including preservation rate, stand density, height, diameter, stem form, degree of stem inclination, tree-species composition, and age structure. Results: Eucalyptus surviving in the mixed plantation of Eucalyptus and A. mangium (EA) and in the mixed plantation of Eucalyptus and P. elliottii × P. caribaea (EP) were 5.0% and 7.6% greater than those in pure Eucalyptus plantation (EE), respectively, while only the stand preservation rate of EA was greater (+2.9%) than that of the pure Eucalyptus plantation. The proportions of all mixtures in the height class greater than 7 m were fewer than that of EE. The proportions of EA and mixed plantation of Eucalyptus and N. cadamba (EN) in the diameter class greater than 7 m were 10.6% and 7.8%, respectively, more than that of EE. EN had the highest ratio of branching visibly (41.0%), EA had the highest ratio of inclined stems (8.1%), and EP had the most straight and complete stem form (68.7%). The stand stability of the mixed plantation of Eucalyptus and A. mangium presented to be optimal, as its subordinate function value (0.76) and state value (ω = 0.61) of real stand were the largest. Conclusions: A. mangium is a superior tree species to mix with Eucalyptus for a more stable stand structure in the early growth stage to approach an evident and immense stability and resistance, which is of great significance for the forest restoration of Eucalyptus in response to extreme climate and forest management.

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Large-Scale Waves in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Observed by SABER

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas3612.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 62 (12) ◽

pp. 4384-4399 ◽

Cited By ~ 104

Author(s):

Rolando R. Garcia ◽

Ruth Lieberman ◽

James M. Russell ◽

Martin G. Mlynczak

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Middle Atmosphere ◽

Lower Thermosphere ◽

Normal Modes ◽

Zonal Winds ◽

Broadband Emission ◽

Summer Hemisphere ◽

Mean Structure ◽

Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere ◽

The Tropics

Abstract Observations made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board NASA’s Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite have been processed using Salby’s fast Fourier synoptic mapping (FFSM) algorithm. The mapped data provide a first synoptic look at the mean structure and traveling waves of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) since the launch of the TIMED satellite in December 2001. The results show the presence of various wave modes in the MLT, which reach largest amplitude above the mesopause and include Kelvin and Rossby–gravity waves, eastward-propagating diurnal oscillations (“non-sun-synchronous tides”), and a set of quasi-normal modes associated with the so-called 2-day wave. The latter exhibits marked seasonal variability, attaining large amplitudes during the solstices and all but disappearing at the equinoxes. SABER data also show a strong quasi-stationary Rossby wave signal throughout the middle atmosphere of the winter hemisphere; the signal extends into the Tropics and even into the summer hemisphere in the MLT, suggesting ducting by westerly background zonal winds. At certain times of the year, the 5-day Rossby normal mode and the 4-day wave associated with instability of the polar night jet are also prominent in SABER data.

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