scholarly journals Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 2627-2647
Author(s):  
Alexander Koch ◽  
Chris Brierley ◽  
Simon L. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
System Response ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Negative Emissions ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. To achieve the Paris Agreement requires aggressive mitigation strategies alongside negative emission technologies. Recent studies suggest that increasing tree cover can make a substantial contribution to negative emissions, with the tropics being the most suitable region from a biogeophysical perspective. Yet these studies typically do not account for subsequent carbon cycle and climate responses to large-scale land-use change. Here we quantify the maximum potential temperature and CO2 benefits from pantropical forest restoration, including the Earth system response, using a fully coupled, emission-driven Earth system model (HadGEM2-ES). We perform an idealised experiment where all land use in the tropics is stopped and vegetation is allowed to recover, on top of an aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP2.6). We find that tropical restoration of 1529 Mha increases carbon stored in live biomass by 130 Pg C by 2100 CE. Whilst avoiding deforestation and tropical restoration in the tropics removes 42 Pg C compared to RCP2.6, the subsequent reduction in extratropical and ocean carbon uptake means that carbon in the atmosphere only reduces by 18 Pg C by 2100. The resulting small CO2 (9 ppm) benefit does not translate to a detectable reduction in global surface air temperature compared to the control experiment. The greatest carbon benefit is achieved 30–50 years after restoration before the Earth system response adjusts to the new land-use regime and declining fossil fuel use. Comparing our results with previous modelling studies, we identify two model-independent key points: (i) in a world where emission reductions follow the Paris Agreement, restoration is best deployed immediately, and (ii) the global carbon cycle response to reduced emissions limits the efficacy of negative emissions technologies by more than half. We conclude that forest restoration can reduce peak CO2 mid-century, but it can only modestly contribute to negative emissions.

scholarly journals Earth system feedbacks following large-scale tropical forest restoration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Koch ◽  
Chris Brierley ◽  
Simon L. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
System Response ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Negative Emissions ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. To achieve the Paris Agreement requires aggressive mitigation strategies alongside negative emission technologies. Recent studies suggest that increasing tree cover can make a substantial contribution to negative emissions, with the tropics being the most suitable region from a biogeophysical perspective. Yet these studies typically do not account for subsequent carbon cycle and climate feedback processes of large-scale land use change. Here we quantify the maximum potential temperature and CO2 benefits from pantropical forest restoration, including earth system feedbacks, using a fully-coupled, emission-driven Earth System Model (HadGEM2-ES). We perform an idealised experiment where all land use in the tropics is stopped and vegetation is allowed to recover, on top of an aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6). We find that tropical restoration of 1529 Mha increases carbon stored in live biomass by 130 Pg C by 2100 CE. Whilst avoiding deforestation and tropical restoration in the tropics removes 42 Pg C compared to RCP 2.6, feedback processes mean that carbon in the atmosphere only reduces by 18 Pg C by 2100. The resulting, small CO2 (9 ppm) benefit does not translate to a detectable reduction in global surface air temperature compared to the control experiment. The greatest carbon benefit is achieved 30–50 years after restoration before the Earth System response adjusts to the new land-use regime and declining fossil fuel use. We identify three model-independent key points: (i) the carbon benefit of restoration is CO2-scenario dependent, (ii) in a world that follows Paris Agreement emission cuts restoration is best deployed immediately, and (iii) the ocean carbon feedbacks will reduce the efficacy of negative emissions technologies. We conclude that forest restoration can reduce peak CO2 mid-century, but can only be a modest contribution to negative emissions.

The Atmospheric Component of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Amazon Basin

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo Artaxo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Aerosol Particles ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Biogeochemical Cycles ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Tropics

Tropical forests, with their high biological activity, have the potential to emit large amounts of trace gases and aerosol particles to the atmosphere. The accelerated development and land clearing that is occurring in large areas of the Amazon basin suggest that anthropogenic effects on natural biogeochemical cycles are already occurring (Gash et al. 1996). The atmosphere plays a key role in this process. The tropics are the part of the globe with the most rapidly growing population, the most dramatic industrial expansion and the most rapid and pervasive change in land use and land cover. Also the tropics contain the largest standing stocks of terrestrial vegetation and have the highest rates of photosynthesis and respiration. It is likely that changes in tropical land use will have a profound impact on the global atmosphere (Andreae 1998, Andreae and Crutzen 1997). A significant fraction of nutrients are transported or dislocated through the atmosphere in the form of trace gases, aerosol particles, and rainwater (Keller et al. 1991). Also the global effects of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other trace gases have in the forest ecosystems a key partner. The large emissions of isoprene, terpenes, and many other volatile organic compounds could impact carbon cycling and the production of secondary aerosol particles over the Amazon region. Vegetation is a natural source of many types of aerosol particles that play an important role in the radiation budget over large areas (Artaxo et al. 1998). There are 5 major reservoirs in the Earth system: atmosphere, biosphere (vegetation, animals), soils, hydrosphere (oceans, lakes, rivers, groundwater), and the lithosphere (Earth crust). Elemental cycles of carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, sulfur, phosphorus, and other elements interact with the different reservoirs of the Earth system. The carbon cycle has important aspects in tropical forests due to the large amount of carbon stored in the tropical forests and the high rate of tropical deforestation (Jacob 1999). In Amazonia there are two very different atmospheric conditions: the wet season (mostly from November to June) and the dry season (July-October) (see Marengo and Nobre, this volume). Biomass burning emissions dominate completely the atmospheric concentrations over large areas of the Amazon basin during the dry season (Artaxo et al. 1988).

scholarly journals Constraints on long term warming in a climate mitigation scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Sanderson
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Budget ◽  
System Response ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Mitigation Scenario ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Negative Emissions ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. Cumulative emissions budgets and net-zero emission target dates are often used to frame climate negotiations (Frameet al., 2014; Millar et al., 2016; Van Vuuren et al., 2016; Rogelj et al., 2015b; Matthews et al., 2012). However, their utilityfor near-term policy decisions is confounded by an uncertainties in future negative emissions capacity (Fuss et al., 2014; Smith et al., 2016; Larkin et al., 2018; Anderson and Peters, 2016) and in long term Earth System response to climate forcers(Rugenstein et al., 2019; Knutti et al., 2017; Armour, 2017) which may impact the utility of an indefinite carbon budget if peak temperatures occur significantly after net zero emissions are achieved, the likelihood of which in a simple model is conditionalon prior assumptions about the long term dynamics of the Earth System. Here we illustrate that the risks associated with nearterm positive emissions can be framed using a definite cumulative emissions budget with a 2040 time horizon, allowing thenecessity and scope for negative emissions deployment later in the century to be better informed by observed warming overcoming decades.

scholarly journals The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 563-577
Author(s):  
Benjamin Sanderson
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Budget ◽  
System Response ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Negative Emissions ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. Cumulative emissions budgets and net-zero emission target dates are often used to frame climate negotiations (Frame et al., 2014; Millar et al., 2016; Van Vuuren et al., 2016; Rogelj et al., 2015b; Matthews et al., 2012). However, their utility for near-term policy decisions is confounded by uncertainties in future negative emissions capacity (Fuss et al., 2014; Smith et al., 2016; Larkin et al., 2018; Anderson and Peters, 2016), in the role of non-CO2 forcers (MacDougall et al., 2015) and in the long-term Earth system response to forcing (Rugenstein et al., 2019; Knutti et al., 2017; Armour, 2017). Such uncertainties may impact the utility of an absolute carbon budget if peak temperatures occur significantly after net-zero emissions are achieved, the likelihood of which is shown here to be conditional on prior assumptions about the long-term dynamics of the Earth system. In the context of these uncertainties, we show that the necessity and scope for negative emissions deployment later in the century can be conditioned on near-term emissions, providing support for a scenario framework which focuses on emissions reductions rather than absolute budgets (Rogelj et al., 2019b).

scholarly journals Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 095012 ◽  
Author(s):  
C D Jones ◽  
P Ciais ◽  
S J Davis ◽  
P Friedlingstein ◽  
T Gasser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Response ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Negative Emissions

Dryland Degradation and Expansion: Implications for Mexican Policies from the Earth System Perspective

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Gabriel Lopez Porras
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Science Policy ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Sustainable Land Management ◽  
System Perspective ◽  
The Earth

Despite international efforts to stop dryland degradation and expansion, current dryland pathways are predicted to result in large-scale migration, growing poverty and famine, and increasing climate change, land degradation, conflicts and water scarcity. Earth system science has played a key role in analysing dryland problems, and has been even incorporated in global assessments such as the ones made by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. However, policies addressing dryland degradation, like the ‘Mexican programme for the promotion of sustainable land management’, do not embrace an Earth system perspective, so they do not consider the complexity and non-linearity that underlie dryland problems. By exploring how this Mexican programme could integrate the Earth system perspective, this paper discusses how ’Earth system’ policies could better address dryland degradation and expansion in the Anthropocene.

Preliminary monthly gravity field models from kinematic orbits of SWARM Satellites

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingfu Zhang ◽  
Qiujie Chen ◽  
Yunzhong Shen
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Field ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Swarm Satellites ◽  
Variable Gravity ◽  
Data Gap ◽  
One Year ◽  
Gravity Recovery ◽  
Gravity Field Models

<p>      Although the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE FO) satellite missions play an important role in monitoring global mass changes within the Earth system, there is a data gap of about one year spanning July 2017 to May 2018, which leads to discontinuous gravity observations for monitoring global mass changes. As an alternative mission, the SWARM satellites can provide gravity observations to close this data gap. In this paper, we are dedicated to developing alternative monthly time-variable gravity field solutions from SWARM data. Using kinematic orbits of SWARM from ITSG for the period January 2015 to September 2020, we have generated a preliminary time series of monthly gravity field models named Tongji-Swarm2019 up to degree and order 60. The comparisons between Tongji-Swarm2019 and GRACE/GRACE-FO monthly solutions show that Tongji-Swarm2019 solutions agree with GRACE/GRACE-FO models in terms of large-scale mass change signals over amazon, Greenland and other regions. We can conclude that Tongji-Swarm2019 monthly gravity field models are able to close the gap between GRACE and GRACE FO.</p>

scholarly journals Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1111-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Eby ◽  
A. J. Weaver ◽  
K. Alexander ◽  
K. Zickfeld ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Experiments ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

scholarly journals Reviews and syntheses: Flying the satellite into your model: on the role of observation operators in constraining models of the Earth system and the carbon cycle

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2343-2357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Pierre-Philippe Mathieu
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Automatic Differentiation ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Spectral Radiance ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Retrieval Scheme

Abstract. The vehicles that fly the satellite into a model of the Earth system are observation operators. They provide the link between the quantities simulated by the model and the quantities observed from space, either directly (spectral radiance) or indirectly estimated through a retrieval scheme (biogeophysical variables). By doing so, observation operators enable modellers to properly compare, evaluate, and constrain their models with the model analogue of the satellite observations. This paper provides the formalism and a few examples of how observation operators can be used in combination with data assimilation techniques to better ingest satellite products in a manner consistent with the dynamics of the Earth system expressed by models. It describes commonalities and potential synergies between assimilation and classical retrievals. This paper explains how the combination of observation operators and their derivatives (linearizations) form powerful research tools. It introduces a technique called automatic differentiation that greatly simplifies both the development and the maintenance of code for the evaluation of derivatives. Throughout this paper, a special focus lies on applications to the carbon cycle.

scholarly journals Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3383-3438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Lisa Bock ◽  
Axel Lauer ◽  
Mattia Righi ◽  
Manuel Schlund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
The Earth ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility. It consists of (1) an easy-to-install, well-documented Python package providing the core functionalities (ESMValCore) that performs common preprocessing operations and (2) a diagnostic part that includes tailored diagnostics and performance metrics for specific scientific applications. Here we describe large-scale diagnostics of the second major release of the tool that supports the evaluation of ESMs participating in CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6). ESMValTool v2.0 includes a large collection of diagnostics and performance metrics for atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial variables for the mean state, trends, and variability. ESMValTool v2.0 also successfully reproduces figures from the evaluation and projections chapters of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and incorporates updates from targeted analysis packages, such as the NCAR Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for the evaluation of modes of variability, the Thermodynamic Diagnostic Tool (TheDiaTo) to evaluate the energetics of the climate system, as well as parts of AutoAssess that contains a mix of top–down performance metrics. The tool has been fully integrated into the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) infrastructure at the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) to provide evaluation results from CMIP6 model simulations shortly after the output is published to the CMIP archive. A result browser has been implemented that enables advanced monitoring of the evaluation results by a broad user community at much faster timescales than what was possible in CMIP5.

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