Short-term forecasting of the industrial production index

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of economic growth and inflation on unemployment for the period 2005:1- 2020:9 in Turkey by using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) model. In the study, firstly unit root tests were carried out to determine whether economic growth (ind) and inflation (cpi) have long and short-term effects on unemployment (unemp). Then, the ARDL method was used to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the series in the model where the unemployment rate is the dependent variable, the Industrial Production Index representing economic growth and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing inflation. Instead of GDP, the Industrial Production Index was preferred both to harmonize with the monthly data and to make a production-based analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant cointegration relationship between the variables, and the short-term relationship was analyzed with the error correction model (ECM). As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that there is a cointegration relationship between unemployment, inflation rate and economic growth in Turkey. According to the results of the analysis, negative between unemployment and industrial production index; It is seen that there is a positive relationship between unemployment and inflation.

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Kondisi makroekonomi dan kinerja perbankan di Indonesia

Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika ◽

10.22437/jpe.v16i1.12073 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 11-28

Author(s):

Irma Febriana Mk ◽

Nurbetty Herlina Sitorus ◽

Rizka Malia

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Industrial Production ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Short Term ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Production Index ◽

Vector Error ◽

Industrial Production Index ◽

Significant Negative Relationship

The purpose of this study was to see how the long-term and short-term relationship between banking performance and macroeconomic variables. The analysis method used is the vector error correction model (VECM) with the variables ROA, BOPO, LDR, industrial production index, CPI, and BI rate. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between ROA and industrial production index in the long run and a significant negative relationship between ROA and CPI in the long and short term. There is a significant negative relationship between BOPO and the industrial production index in the long and short term. LDR has a significant negative relationship with all macro variables in the long term whereas, in the short term, LDR has a significant negative relationship with the CPI. Keywords: Banking performance, Macroeconomic, Vector error correction models

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Analisis Dinamis Hubungan Antara Harga Saham dan Variabel Makroekonomi

Jurnal Manajemen Strategi dan Aplikasi Bisnis ◽

10.36407/jmsab.v4i1.278 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 77-90

Author(s):

Paulina Harun

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Industrial Production ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Trade Balance ◽

Short Term ◽

Ardl Model ◽

Production Index ◽

Industrial Production Index

Previous research has proven the influence between interest rates, inflation, exchange rate, trade balance, industrial production index on stock prices. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach and the 13 companies listed on the IDX, in this study, we will look deeper into the dynamics of long-term and short-term relationships for the aforementioned variables. The research period starts from January 2015 to December 2019, during which time there were many global upheavals that had a considerable impact on the Indonesian economy, through the ARDL model of interest rates, inflation, exchange rate, trade balance, industrial production index, and stock prices are proven to have long-term cointegration or move together in the long term. But not only in the long run, but these seven variables also have a dynamic short-term relationship that has a sufficient speed of adjustment towards equilibrium per month.

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Dampak Makro Ekonomi dan Financial Performance Terhadap Market Share Perbankan Syari’ah di Indonesia

Jurnal Ekonomi ◽

10.24912/je.v25i1.626 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 25 (1) ◽

pp. 51

Author(s):

Muh. K. Fatihin, Eko Siswahto, Sulistya Rusgianto, Nizar. H. Hadi

Keyword(s):

Market Share ◽

Industrial Production ◽

Banking Sector ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Islamic Banking ◽

Short Term ◽

Production Index ◽

Industrial Production Index ◽

Banking Market

Islamic banking market share is the biggest contributor on the development of the Islamic financial market share. This study aims to comprehensively examine the sharia banking market share growth in short-term and long-term dynamic interactions. The independent variables used in this study are inflation, industrial production index (IPI), intrest rate, Return of Assets (ROA) and financing to Deposite Ratio (FDR). The method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with monthly data from 2011-2018. The results of this study indicate that interest rates have a significant negative effect on Islamic banking market share in the short and long term. Meanwhile, inflation, ROA, FDR have a positive effect on the sharia banking market share in the short term. IPI's industrial production index as a proxy for domestic product (gross domestic product) has no short-term and long-term impact. The results of this study have important implications for the central bank and the banking sector.

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Industrial Output in the USSR and Russia, 1861—2012. Part II. Crises and Cycles

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2013-7-138-153 ◽

2013 ◽

pp. 138-153 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

S. Smirnov

Keyword(s):

Industrial Production ◽

Turning Points ◽

Russian Empire ◽

Industrial Output ◽

Production Index ◽

Russian Industry ◽

Industrial Production Index ◽

Cyclical Volatility

Calculation of the aggregated "consensus" industrial production index has made it possible to date cyclical turning points and to measure the depth and length of the main industrial recessions in Russian Empire/USSR/Russia for the last century and a half. The most important causes of all these recessions are described. The cyclical volatility of Soviet/Russian industry is compared to that of American one.

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