scholarly journals Analisis Dinamis Hubungan Antara Harga Saham dan Variabel Makroekonomi

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-90
Author(s):  
Paulina Harun
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index

Previous research has proven the influence between interest rates, inflation, exchange rate, trade balance, industrial production index on stock prices. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach and the 13 companies listed on the IDX, in this study, we will look deeper into the dynamics of long-term and short-term relationships for the aforementioned variables. The research period starts from January 2015 to December 2019, during which time there were many global upheavals that had a considerable impact on the Indonesian economy, through the ARDL model of interest rates, inflation, exchange rate, trade balance, industrial production index, and stock prices are proven to have long-term cointegration or move together in the long term. But not only in the long run, but these seven variables also have a dynamic short-term relationship that has a sufficient speed of adjustment towards equilibrium per month.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PREDICTING INDONESIAN SHARIA STOCK INDEX

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 223
Author(s):  
Angga Khoerul Umam ◽  
Ririn Tri Ratnasari ◽  
Sri Herianingrum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThis study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate, interest rates, industrial production index, SBIS and inflation on the Indonesian Islamic stock index. This study uses monthly data from May 2011 to December 2018. This research is a quantitative study that applies the Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to see the long-term impact and shock response on certain variables. The findings indicate the existence of short-term and long-term causality between macroeconomic variables and the Indonesian Islamic stock index. Especially in the long run, industrial production index and inflation have a significant effect on ISSI, while the exchange rate, interest rates and SBIS have no significant effect on ISSI. IRF results show that the response of each variable and stable at different times. The ISSI response experienced a positive shock that occurred in the industrial production index and inflation. On the other hand, the exchange rate, the Bungan rate and SBIS were responded negatively by ISSI.

scholarly journals Kondisi makroekonomi dan kinerja perbankan di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-28
Author(s):  
Irma Febriana Mk ◽  
Nurbetty Herlina Sitorus ◽  
Rizka Malia
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship

The purpose of this study was to see how the long-term and short-term relationship between banking performance and macroeconomic variables. The analysis method used is the vector error correction model (VECM) with the variables ROA, BOPO, LDR, industrial production index, CPI, and BI rate. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between ROA and industrial production index in the long run and a significant negative relationship between ROA and CPI in the long and short term. There is a significant negative relationship between BOPO and the industrial production index in the long and short term. LDR has a significant negative relationship with all macro variables in the long term whereas, in the short term, LDR has a significant negative relationship with the CPI.  Keywords: Banking performance, Macroeconomic, Vector error correction models

scholarly journals Dampak Makro Ekonomi dan Financial Performance Terhadap Market Share Perbankan Syari’ah di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Muh. K. Fatihin, Eko Siswahto, Sulistya Rusgianto, Nizar. H. Hadi
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Banking Market

Islamic banking market share is the biggest contributor on the development of the Islamic financial market share. This study aims to comprehensively examine the sharia banking market share growth in short-term and long-term dynamic interactions. The independent variables used in this study are inflation, industrial production index (IPI), intrest rate, Return of Assets (ROA) and financing to Deposite Ratio (FDR). The method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with monthly data from 2011-2018. The results of this study indicate that interest rates have a significant negative effect on Islamic banking market share in the short and long term. Meanwhile, inflation, ROA, FDR have a positive effect on the sharia banking market share in the short term. IPI's industrial production index as a proxy for domestic product (gross domestic product) has no short-term and long-term impact. The results of this study have important implications for the central bank and the banking sector.

العلاقة التبادلية بين سعر الصرف وأسعار الأسهم دراسة تطبيقية في سوق اسطنبول للأوراق المالية للمدة 2005-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
سعدالله ألنعيمي
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Theoretical Interpretation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The study aims to analyzing the reciprocal relationship between the nominal exchange rate of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar and the stock prices of the companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) expressed in the general market index for the period from 2005 to 2020 with 192 monthly observations, based on the traditional theory and the theory of portfolio balance model in theoretical interpretation for that relationship, aiming to identify the effect of the exchange rate on stock prices, as well as to analyze the causal relationship between those variables and to identify which of them is the cause or which is the result, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The research found that the exchange rate has a positive effect on stock prices in the long term, despite the emergence of the negative impact in the short term, but the long-term relationship has corrected the course of the short-term relationship with a time period not exceeding one month, in addition to proving that this relationship takes one direction. From the exchange rate towards stock prices, that is, the exchange rate is the reason and stock prices are the result, therefore the results of this research helps investors to predict future trends of stock prices depending on the exchange rate changes, and it also enables the companies, especially those with foreign transactions, to manage price risks the exchange rate in order to avoid its negative impact on its share price, as it represents an obstacle to achieving its main goal of maximizing the share price

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY WITH THE ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (15) ◽  
pp. 299-312
Author(s):  
Özlem KARADAĞ AK
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of economic growth and inflation on unemployment for the period 2005:1- 2020:9 in Turkey by using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) model. In the study, firstly unit root tests were carried out to determine whether economic growth (ind) and inflation (cpi) have long and short-term effects on unemployment (unemp). Then, the ARDL method was used to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the series in the model where the unemployment rate is the dependent variable, the Industrial Production Index representing economic growth and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing inflation. Instead of GDP, the Industrial Production Index was preferred both to harmonize with the monthly data and to make a production-based analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant cointegration relationship between the variables, and the short-term relationship was analyzed with the error correction model (ECM). As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that there is a cointegration relationship between unemployment, inflation rate and economic growth in Turkey. According to the results of the analysis, negative between unemployment and industrial production index; It is seen that there is a positive relationship between unemployment and inflation.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-99
Author(s):  
Feby Kinanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including the open unemployment rate, trade balance, inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar on Indonesian economic growth by using the ECM error correction model approach to see the long-term and short-term relationships that influence macro variables on economic growth. , in the long term the open unemployment rate variable, the trade balance, the inflation rate have a negative effect while the exchange rate has a positive effect, while in the short term the open unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate have a negative effect while the trade balance has a positive effect.   Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Inflation, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Faktor Internal, Makroekonomi dan Pembiayaan Bermasalah Bank Syariah di Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-56
Author(s):  
Yudhistira Ardana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
Ratio Variables

Non Performing Financing is the most important issue for banks to survive. This study aims to analyze the determination of internal and external factors on Non Performing FInancing on Sharia Banking in Indonesia. This study uses Error Correction Model analysis techniques. The results show that in the short term the variables that have a significant effect on Non Performing Financing on Sharia Banking in Indonesia are inflation variables, while the Exchange Rate, Bank Indonesia Certificate of Wadi’ah, Industrial Production Index, Financing Deposite Ratio, and Capital Adequacy Ratio variables have no significant effect. In the long run the variables that are influential are Exchange Rate, Bank Indonesia Certificate of Wadi’ah, Financing Deposite Ratio, and Capital Adequacy Ratio, while Inflation and Industrial Production Index have no significant effect.

scholarly journals Perilaku Investasi di Indonesia: Kajian Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daru Wahyuni
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
National Income ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Elasticity Coefficient ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Government

The purpose of this research was to know how domestic investment in Indonesia behaves both in the short term and in the long term. Data used were secondary data obtained from various sources. Those data would be analyzed by using a dynamic analysis tool consisted of a cointegration approach and an error correction model.Several findings obtained from this research were (1) ECT coefficient (4.16) significantly and  statistically influenced domestic investment in Indonesia. It indicated that the error correction model used in this research was valid. (2) In the short term, national income variables and domestic interest rates did not significantly affect domestic investment while government investment variables and rate of exchange positively and significantly influenced domestic investment. Elasticity coefficient of the government investment and the exchange rate were –1.44 and 2.34 respectively. (3) By concerning time lag factor, the estimation results showed that the national incomes, the domestic interest rates, the government investment , and  exchange rate of rupiah against US dollar in the previous 1 year significantly affected domestic investment. Their elasticity  were 2.18, -1.18, -2.18 and 1.26 respectively. (4) In the long term, the national income variables and the exchange rate of rupiah against US dollar positively and significantly influenced domestic investment  meanwhile the domestic interest rate variables and the government investment did not significantly influence domestic investment. The elasticity coefficient of the national income and  exchange rate were 3.08 and –2.19 respectively.

scholarly journals THE DETERMINANTS FACTORS OF PROFITABILITY ISLAMIC BANK IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Herawati Purwasih ◽  
Wisnu Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan dari profitabilitas bank syariah di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan variabel makroekonomi dan variabel perbankan periode Januari 2006 – Desember 2019. Variabel makroekonomi yang digunakan adalah Industrial Production Index, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhdap dollar, suku bunga. Sedangkan variabel perbankan yang digunakan adalah Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non Performing Financing, Financing to Deposite Ratio, Biaya Operational dan Pendapatan Operational, serta variabel return on asset. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah dalam jangka pendek hanya variabel Nilai Tukar, Biaya Operational dan Pendapatan Operational serta Non Performing Financing yang berpengaruh terhadap Return on Asset. Variabel Industrial Production Index, Inflasi, suku bunga, Capital Adequacy Ratio, dan Financing to Deposite Ratio tidak berpengaruh terhadap return on asset dalam jangka pendek. Kemudian dalam jangka panjang hasilnya sama yaitu hanya variabel Nilai Tukar, Biaya Operational dan Pendapatan Operational serta Non Performing Financing yang berpengaruh terhadap Return on Asset. Variabel Industrial Production Index, Inflasi, suku bunga, Capital Adequacy Ratio, dan Financing to Deposite Ratio juga tidak berpengaruh terhadap return on asset dalam jangka panjang. Variabel nilai tukar merupakan variabel yang paling berpengaruh dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang terhadap profitabilitas of Islamic bank.  Dengan demikian penelitian ini diharapkan bisa membantu perbankan syariah dalam menganalisa faktor yang mempengaruhi profitabilitas perbankan syariah di Indonesia.  The purpose of this research is to find out the determinant factors that the growth of Islamic bank profitability in Indonesia. This research uses a quantitative approach with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The data used is monthly data of macroeconomic variables and banking variables for the period January 2006 – December 2019. Macroeconomic variables used are the Industrial Production Index, Inflation, Rupiah Exchange Rate with the dollar, interest rate. While the banking variables used are Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non-Performing Financing, Financing to Deposit Ratio, Operational Cost and Operational Income, as well as variable return on assets. The result of this study is that in the short term only variable Exchange Rates, Operational Costs, and Operational Income and Non-Performing Financing affect Return on Assets. Variable Industrial Production Index, Inflation, interest rates, Capital Adequacy Ratio, and Financing to Deposite Ratio have no effect on return on assets in the short term. Then in the long run the result is the same is that only variable Exchange Rates, Operational Costs, and Operational Income and Non-Performing Financing affect the return on assets. Variable Industrial Production Index, Inflation, interest rates, Capital Adequacy Ratio, and Financing to Deposite Ratio also have no effect on return on assets in the long term. Exchange rate variables are the most influential variables in the short and long term on the profitability of Islamic banks. Thus, this research is expected to assist Sharia banking in analyzing factors that affect the profitability of Sharia banking in Indonesia.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document