Combining spatial and sociodemographic regression techniques to predict residential fire counts at the census tract level

2021 ◽  
Vol 88 ◽  
pp. 101633
Author(s):  
Tyler Buffington ◽  
James G. Scott ◽  
Ofodike A. Ezekoye
2008 ◽  
Vol 33 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 155-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Baker ◽  
Xiaomin Ruan ◽  
Adelamar Alcantara ◽  
Troy Jones ◽  
Kendra Watkins ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Leah H. Schinasi ◽  
Helen V. S. Cole ◽  
Jana A. Hirsch ◽  
Ghassan B. Hamra ◽  
Pedro Gullon ◽  
...  

Neighborhood greenspace may attract new residents and lead to sociodemographic or housing cost changes. We estimated relationships between greenspace and gentrification-related changes in the 43 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of the United States (US). We used the US National Land Cover and Brown University Longitudinal Tracts databases, as well as spatial lag models, to estimate census tract-level associations between percentage greenspace (years 1990, 2000) and subsequent changes (1990–2000, 2000–2010) in percentage college-educated, percentage working professional jobs, race/ethnic composition, household income, percentage living in poverty, household rent, and home value. We also investigated effect modification by racial/ethnic composition. We ran models for each MSA and time period and used random-effects meta-analyses to derive summary estimates for each period. Estimates were modest in magnitude and heterogeneous across MSAs. After adjusting for census-tract level population density in 1990, compared to tracts with low percentage greenspace in 1992 (defined as ≤50th percentile of the MSA-specific distribution in 1992), those with high percentage greenspace (defined as >75th percentile of the MSA-specific distribution) experienced higher 1990–2000 increases in percentage of the employed civilian aged 16+ population working professional jobs (β: 0.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.11, 0.26) and in median household income (β: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.31). Adjusted estimates for the 2000–2010 period were near the null. We did not observe evidence of effect modification by race/ethnic composition. We observed evidence of modest associations between greenspace and gentrification trends. Further research is needed to explore reasons for heterogeneity and to quantify health implications.


Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey J Wing ◽  
Emily E Lynch ◽  
Sarah E Laurent ◽  
Bruce C Mitchell ◽  
Jason Richardson ◽  
...  

Introduction: Racial disparities exist in stroke and stroke outcomes. However, the fundamental cause for these disparities are not biological differences, but structural racism. Using the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) ‘redlining’ scores, as indicator of structural lending practices from middle of the last century, we hypothesize that census tracts with high historic redlining are associated with higher stroke prevalence. Methods: Weighted historic redlining scores (HRS) were calculated using the proportion of 1930s HOLC residential security grades contained within 2010 census tract boundaries of Columbus, Ohio. Stroke prevalence (adults >=18) was obtained at the census tract-level from the CDC’s 500 Cities Project. Sociodemographic factors, as measured by census tract level information (American Community Survey 2014-2018), were considered mediators in the causal association between historic redlining (measured in 1936) and stroke prevalence (measured in 2017) and were not controlled for in regression analysis. The functional form of the association was non-linear, so stroke prevalence within quartiles of the HRS were compared using linear regression instead of a continuous score. Results: Higher HRS, representing greater redlining, were associated with greater prevalence of stroke when comparing the highest to the lowest quartile of HRS (Figure). Census tracts in the highest quartile of HRS had 1.48% higher stroke prevalence compared to those in the lowest quartile (95% CI: 0.23-2.74). No other interquartile differences were observed. Conclusions: Historic redlining practices are a form of structural racism that established geographic systems of disadvantage and consequently, poor health outcomes. Our findings demonstrate disparate stroke prevalence by degree of historic redlining in census tracts across Columbus, Ohio. While ecologic, this study demonstrates the need to acknowledge that racism, not race, drive stroke disparities.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelsey A. Chun ◽  
Jamaica R. Robinson ◽  
Candace H. Kroenke ◽  
Dorothy S. Lane ◽  
Giselle Corbie-Smith ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 7032-7032
Author(s):  
Amina Dhahri ◽  
Jori Lee Kaplan ◽  
Shana Ntiri ◽  
Iman Imanirad ◽  
Seth Felder ◽  
...  

7032 Background: Socioeconomic status (SES) has been associated with worse outcomes in stage III colon cancer. However, these studies have used large geographic areas (zip codes or counties) as a proxy for SES which may bias results. To overcome this challenge, we used a national database with census-tract level SES to assess the impact on cancer-specific (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Methods: Using the SEER Census-Tract Dataset from 2004-2015, we identified 8th edition AJCC stage III colon adenocarcinoma patients who underwent curative-intent surgery and initiated adjuvant chemotherapy. The predictor variable was census-tract level SES, consisting of 7 variables such as income, housing, and education. SES was analyzed as quartiles. Statistical analysis included chi square tests for association and Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression for survival analysis. Results: We identified 27,222 patients who met inclusion criteria. Lower SES was associated with younger age, Black or Hispanic race/ethnicity, Medicaid or uninsured status, higher T stage, <12 lymph nodes examined and lower grade tumors. Median CSS was not reached; the 25th percentile CSS time was 54 months for the lowest SES (LSES) quartile and 80 months for the highest (HSES). Median OS was 113 months for LSES and not reached for HSES. The 5-year CSS rate was 72.4% for the LSES quartile compared to 78.9% in the HSES (p<0.001). The 5-year OS rate was 66.5% for LSES and 74.6% in the HSES (p<0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, race, insurance, pathologic T and N stage and grade), LSES was associated with increased cancer-specific death relative to the HSES (HR 1.22; 95% CI [1.114-1.327]) Conclusions: This is the first study to evaluate CSS and OS in a national cohort of stage III colon cancer patients using a granular, standardized measure of SES. Despite receipt of guideline-based treatment, low SES remained a predictor of increased cancer-specific mortality. These data suggest that investigating treatment barriers beyond adjuvant therapy is needed to address colon cancer survival disparities. [Table: see text]


Author(s):  
Sara J Cromer ◽  
Chirag M Lakhani ◽  
Deborah J Wexler ◽  
Sherri-Ann M Burnett-Bowie ◽  
Miriam Udler ◽  
...  

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has disproportionately affected racial and ethnic minority communities across the United States. We sought to disentangle individual and census tract-level sociodemographic and economic factors associated with these disparities. Methods and Findings: All adults tested for SARS-CoV-2 between February 1 and June 21, 2020 were geocoded to a census tract based on their address; hospital employees and individuals with invalid addresses were excluded. Individual (age, sex, race/ethnicity, preferred language, insurance) and census tract-level (demographics, insurance, income, education, employment, occupation, household crowding and occupancy, built home environment, and transportation) variables were analyzed using linear mixed models predicting infection, hospitalization, and death from SARS-CoV-2. Among 57,865 individuals, per capita testing rates, individual (older age, male sex, non-White race, non-English preferred language, and non-private insurance), and census tract-level (increased population density, higher household occupancy, and lower education) measures were associated with likelihood of infection. Among those infected, individual age, sex, race, language, and insurance, and census tract-level measures of lower education, more multi-family homes, and extreme household crowding were associated with increased likelihood of hospitalization, while higher per capita testing rates were associated with decreased likelihood. Only individual-level variables (older age, male sex, Medicare insurance) were associated with increased mortality among those hospitalized. Conclusions: This study of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in a major U.S. city presents the cascade of outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection within a large, multi-ethnic cohort. SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization rates, but not death rates among those hospitalized, are related to census tract-level socioeconomic characteristics including lower educational attainment and higher household crowding and occupancy, but not neighborhood measures of race, independent of individual factors.


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 10-10
Author(s):  
Ivy Abraham ◽  
Garth Rauscher ◽  
Anand Ashwin Patel ◽  
William B Pearse ◽  
Priya Rajakumar ◽  
...  

Background: Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and Hispanic patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) have higher mortality rates than non-Hispanic white (NHW) patients despite lower incidence, more favorable genetics, and a younger age at presentation (Darbinyan, Blood Adv. 2017). We performed a multilevel analysis of disparities in AML patients to investigate the contribution of structural violence, specifically neighborhood SES, on racial/ethnic differences in leukemia-specific survival. Methods: Adult AML (non-APL) patients diagnosed between 2012 and 2018 at six academic cancer centers in the Chicago area were included. Census tract data was collected using the FFIEC Geocoding/Mapping System and computed tract disadvantage and tract affluence scores were categorized into distribution tertiles (low, moderate, high). Time to relapse and death from leukemia were examined, adjusting for age, gender and race/ethnicity (baseline models), and for potential mediators of racial disparities including distal (Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), obesity, concentrated disadvantage and affluence, health insurance status), and proximal mediators (somatic mutations, and European Leukemia Network (ELN) prognostic score categories). Results Patient characteristics are shown in Table 1 (n = 822). Significant heterogeneity in age and comorbidities at diagnosis was observed, with Hispanic patients being the youngest and with the lowest CCI. Morbid obesity was more prevalent in NHB and Hispanic (23% and 20%, respectively) compared with NHW (11%) patients. Payer source also differed significantly; private insurance was twice as frequent among NHW than NHB (51% vs. 25%) patients, while the largest uninsured population was Hispanic. ELN adverse risk disease was most prevalent in NHW subjects, NPM1 mutations were least prevalent in Hispanic patients, and p53 mutations more prevalent in NHB (26%) compared to NHW (12%) and Hispanics (9%) although due to low numbers this did not reach significance (p=0.10). NHB and Hispanic patients tended to reside in more disadvantaged and less affluent areas. Treatment data was available for 764 patients (Table 2); 75% received intensive induction therapy and choice of first-line treatment did not differ by race or tract disadvantage. Allogeneic transplant rates however differed by race, age, insurance status, tract disadvantage, and ELN score. Treatment complications of induction chemotherapy, as reflected by ICU admissions during induction, were significantly lower in NHW (25%) compared to NHB (39%) and Hispanic (42%) patients. ICU admission rates were significantly higher in patients with morbid obesity and low tract affluence. Minority (vs. NHW) ethnicity was associated with a 42% increased hazard of death from leukemia (HR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.85), and a 36% increased hazard of death from all causes (HR=1.36, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.72), each after controlling for age, gender and study site. Adjustment for continuous tract disadvantage and affluence and their interaction lowered both the hazard of leukemia and all cause death to 1.18 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.60) and 1.14 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.49), respectively. In formal mediation analysis, neighborhood SES accounted for 37% (p=0.09) and 50% (p=0.02) of the racial disparity in death from leukemia and all causes, respectively. Discussion: This study is the first to integrate data at the individual patient level with neighborhood characteristics, using census tract level variables to examine their contribution to AML patient outcomes. To date, formal mediation methods had not been employed to disentangle race/ethnic disparities in adult AML survival. Notably, our mediation analysis shows that census tract level SES explains a substantial proportion of the disparity in hazard of leukemia death. In addition, the observed disparities in treatment complications of induction chemotherapy, as reflected by ICU admissions, and the continued disparity in allogeneic transplant utilization all warrant further study. These results draw attention to the need for deeper investigation into the social and economic barriers to successful treatment outcomes for leukemia patients and represent an important first step toward designing strategies to mitigate these persistent health inequities. Disclosures Altman: Janssen: Consultancy; Syros: Consultancy; Genentech: Research Funding; Novartis: Consultancy; Amphivena: Research Funding; Amgen: Research Funding; Aprea: Research Funding; ImmunoGen: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding; Boehringer Ingelheim: Research Funding; Fujifilm: Research Funding; Kartos: Research Funding; AbbVie: Other: advisory board, Research Funding; Kura Oncology: Other: Scientific Advisory Board - no payment accepted, Research Funding; BioSight: Other: No payment but was reimbursed for travel , Research Funding; Daiichi Sankyo: Other: Advisory Board - no payment but was reimbursed for travel; Agios: Other: advisory board, Research Funding; Glycomimetics: Other: Data safety and monitoring committee; Astellas: Other: Advisory Board, Speaker (no payment), Steering Committee (no payment), Research Funding; Theradex: Other: Advisory Board; Immune Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Consultancy; France Foundation: Consultancy; PeerView: Consultancy; PrIME Oncology: Consultancy; ASH: Consultancy; Cancer Expert Now: Consultancy. Stock:Research to Practice: Honoraria; UpToDate: Honoraria; Adaptive Biotechnologies: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; American Society of Hematology: Honoraria; Leukemia and Lymphoma Society: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Abbvie: Honoraria, Research Funding; Morphosys: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Agios: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Kite: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Servier: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Pfizer: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Quigley:Alnylam: Speakers Bureau; Agios: Speakers Bureau; Amgen: Other: Advisory board. Khan:Celgene: Consultancy; Incyte: Honoraria; Takeda: Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy.


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