Potential distribution of Abies, Picea, and Juniperus species in the sub-alpine forest of Minjiang headwater region under current and future climate scenarios and its implications on ecosystem services supply

Abstract Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis’s potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.

Download Full-text

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

Forest Ecology and Management ◽

10.1016/j.foreco.2011.03.036 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 262 (3) ◽

pp. 307-316 ◽

Cited By ~ 63

Author(s):

Paul H. Evangelista ◽

Sunil Kumar ◽

Thomas J. Stohlgren ◽

Nicholas E. Young

Keyword(s):

Potential Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Us ◽

Interior West ◽

Pine Beetles

Download Full-text

Modeling the Distribution of the Invasive Alien Cycad Aulacaspis Scale in Africa Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

Journal of Economic Entomology ◽

10.1093/jee/toaa156 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 113 (5) ◽

pp. 2276-2284

Author(s):

Nitin Kanle Satishchandra ◽

Sjirk Geerts

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Summer Rainfall ◽

Future Climate ◽

Invasive Pest ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

African Countries ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Control And Management ◽

National Environmental

Abstract The cycad aulacaspis scale, Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Diaspididae), is native to Southeast Asia but an invasive pest of the gymnosperm order Cycadales in many parts of the world. Aulacaspis yasumatsui was recently reported on the cycad genus Encephalartos in South Africa and is currently categorized as a ‘prohibited terrestrial invertebrate’ in the invasive species legislation, National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act, 2004 (NEM:BA). Encephalartos is endemic to Africa, and 11 species are listed as critically endangered and four species as endangered. Seeing the limited distribution of A. yasumatsui in South Africa and only one unconfirmed record from the Ivory Coast, understanding the potential distribution range is essential for control and management. Here we model the potential distribution of A. yasumatsui under current and future climate scenarios in Africa, with a focus on South Africa. Future climatic scenarios were simulated using a bio-climatic software, CLIMEX. The model indicates that, under the current climatic scenario, all 17 African countries possessing Encephalartos are susceptible to A. yasumatsui establishment. However, under climatic change, the suitability decreases for large parts of Africa. In South Africa, 93% of the winter rainfall areas, and 90% of the temperate, summer rainfall areas are suitable for A. yasumatsui establishment. In this study, we highlight the urgent need for regulation, management, and research on A. yasumatsui in African countries with native cycads.

Download Full-text

Present and Future Suitability of the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve (LTBR) in Ethiopia for the Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) using the MaxEnt Mode

10.21203/rs.3.rs-50747/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Dessalegn Ejigu ◽

Nega Tassie

Keyword(s):

Potential Distribution ◽

Biosphere Reserve ◽

Future Climate ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Lake Tana ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Area ◽

Effective Conservation

Abstract BackgroundThe Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) is a reptile native to Sub-Saharan Africa along the Nile River. The species inhabits a wide variety of habitats including woodlands, grasslands, mangroves, and swamps. Although the practice is not common in the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve (LTBR) , the species is being hunted in Sahelian Africa for its leather, food, pet trade and fat-content. Consequently, the species is listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species. MethodsData collection was based on original onsite GIS aided presence recording. Each record of the species was first vetted for data quality. A multicollinearity analysis was conducted before fitting the MaxEnt model to the 19 bioclimatic variables. Since it provides good coverage for Africa, the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Atmosphere Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) model was used for extracting future climate scenarios. The jackknife test was selected to measure the contribution of each environmental variable to the MaxEnt model for the species. Area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic was used to evaluate the performance of MaxEnt model. Resultson average 2750 individuals were recorded within the LTBR. Mean annual temperature, precipitation and temperature were the most important predictors that limit the potential distribution of V. niloticus. Most of its suitable habitats were mainly predicted in the northern and southern parts of the Lake. The ecological niche model produced an average AUC of 0.85. Notable records of the species were found in the vicinity of the lake and wetlands nearby. Future projection of potential suitable areas revealed that the currently available suitable area will decline in both 2050 and 2070 under both RCP 6.5 and RCP 8.5, of which the decline in suitable area under the business as usual scenario is the greatest. ConclusionsThe potential distribution map for V. niloticus can help in planning land use management around its existing habitat range, discover new populations or set priorities to restore its natural habitat for more effective conservation. Extensive reductions in the amount of suitable areas under future climate scenarios suggest that the species may become threatened in future if effective conservation measures are not implemented.

Download Full-text

Modeling the potential distribution of Epiphyllum phyllanthus (L.) Haw. under future climate scenarios in the Caatinga biome

Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências ◽

10.1590/0001-3765202020180836 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 92 (2) ◽

Author(s):

ARNÓBIO M.B. CAVALCANTE ◽

ARYBERG S. DUARTE ◽

JEAN PIERRE H.B. OMETTO

Keyword(s):

Potential Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Caatinga Biome

Download Full-text

Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Water ◽

10.3390/w12102825 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 2825

Author(s):

Xupu Li ◽

Liwei Zhang ◽

Patrick J. O’Connor ◽

Junping Yan ◽

Bin Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

River Basin ◽

Soil Conservation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Related Services ◽

Hanjiang River

Climate change can have critical impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and their inter-relationships, especially for water-related services. However, there has been little work done on characterizing the current and future changes in these services and their inter-relationships under a changing climate. Based on the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the soil conservation service curve number model (SCS-CN), and the improved stochastic weather-generator-based statistical downscaled global climate models (GCMs), we examined two important water-related services, namely, the soil conservation (SC) service and the flood mitigation (FM) service, and their inter-relationship under baseline and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). We took the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB), which is the core water source area of the China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (S–NWDP), as an illustration. The findings revealed that (1) the SC and FM services will both decrease under the two climate scenarios examined; (2) the SC and FM services showed a significant synergistic inter-relationship and the synergy will be improved by 16.48% and 2.95% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, which provides an opportunity for management optimization; (3) the ecological degradation in the UHRB will likely have serious consequences for the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang river basin, and therefore impact the actual economic benefits of the S–NWDP. This study points to the necessity for understanding the dynamic changes and inter-relationships of ecosystem services under future climate change and provides information regarding the consequences of climate change, which is useful for policy and infrastructure investment.

Download Full-text

Modelling the potential distribution of arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti under current and future climate scenarios in Taiwan, China

Pest Management Science ◽

10.1002/ps.5424 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 75 (11) ◽

pp. 3076-3083 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Boyang Liu ◽

Zhihui Jiao ◽

Jun Ma ◽

Xiang Gao ◽

Jianhua Xiao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Aedes Aegypti ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Arbovirus Vector

Download Full-text

Present and future suitability of the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve in Ethiopia for the Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) using the MaxEnt model

ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH ◽

10.1186/s40068-020-00197-y ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Dessalegn Ejigu ◽

Nega Tassie

Keyword(s):

Potential Distribution ◽

Biosphere Reserve ◽

Future Climate ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Lake Tana ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Area ◽

Effective Conservation

Abstract Introduction The Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) is the largest lizard native to Sub-Saharan Africa along the Nile River. The species inhabits a wide variety of habitats including woodlands, grasslands, mangroves, and swamps. Although the practice is not common in the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve, the species is being hunted in Sahelian Africa for its leather, food, and pet trade. Consequently, the species is listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species. Methodology Data collection was based on onsite GIS aided presence recording. Each record of the species was first vetted for data quality. A multicollinearity analysis was conducted before fitting the MaxEnt model to the 19 bioclimatic variables. Since it provides good coverage for Africa, the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Atmosphere Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) model was used for extracting future climate scenarios. The implementation of change factor was to correct the modeled mean climate from the climate models. The jackknife test was selected to measure the contribution of each environmental predictor variable. Area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic was used to evaluate the performance of MaxEnt model. Results On average 2750 individuals of Nile monitor were recorded within the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve. Mean annual temperature, precipitation and temperature were the most important predictors that limit the potential distribution of Nile monitor in the area. Most of the suitable habitats of Nile monitor were mainly predicted in the northern parts of Lake Tana. The ecological niche model produced an average AUC of 0.85. Notable records of the species were found in the vicinity of the lake and the nearby wetlands. Future projection of potential suitable areas revealed that the currently available suitable area to Nile monitor will decline in both 2050 and 2070 under both RCP 6.5 and RCP 8.5, of which the decline in suitable area under the business as usual scenario is the greatest. Conclusion The potential distribution map for Nile monitor in the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve can help in planning land use management around its existing habitat range, discover new populations or set priorities to restore its natural habitat for more effective conservation. Extensive reductions in the amount of suitable areas under future climate scenarios suggest that the species may become threatened in future if effective conservation measures are not implemented.

Download Full-text

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Frontiers in Plant Science ◽

10.3389/fpls.2021.830119 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Ning Shi ◽

Niyati Naudiyal ◽

Jinniu Wang ◽

Narayan Prasad Gaire ◽

Yan Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Model Output ◽

Southeastern Margin ◽

Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

Download Full-text