scholarly journals Prediction of the effects of climate change on hydroelectric generation, electricity demand, and emissions of greenhouse gases under climatic scenarios and optimized ANN model

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 5431-5445
Author(s):  
Li-Na Guo ◽  
Chen She ◽  
De-Bin Kong ◽  
Shuai-Ling Yan ◽  
Yi-Peng Xu ◽  
...  
Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Mohammadtaghi Avand ◽  
Hamid Reza Moradi ◽  
Mehdi Ramazanzadeh Lasboyee

Preparation of a flood probability map serves as the first step in a flood management program. This research develops a probability flood map for floods resulting from climate change in the future. Two models of Flexible Discrimination Analysis (FDA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were used. Two optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios were considered for mapping future rainfall. Moreover, to produce probability flood occurrence maps, 263 locations of past flood events were used as dependent variables. The number of 13 factors conditioning floods was taken as independent variables in modeling. Of the total 263 flood locations, 80% (210 locations) and 20% (53 locations) were considered model training and validation. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and other statistical criteria were used to validate the models. Based on assessments of the validated models, FDA, with a ROC-AUC = 0.918, standard error (SE = 0.038), and an accuracy of 0.86% compared to the ANN model with a ROC-AUC = 0.897, has the highest accuracy in preparing the flood probability map in the study area. The modeling results also showed that the factors of distance from the River, altitude, slope, and rainfall have the greatest impact on floods in the study area. Both models’ future flood susceptibility maps showed that the highest area is related to the very low class. The lowest area is related to the high class.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Margaret Evans

Abstract Background Healthcare aims to promote good health and yet demonstrably contributes to climate change, which is purported to be ‘the biggest global health threat of the 21st century’. This is happening now, with healthcare as an industry representing 4.4% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Main body Climate change promotes health deficits from many angles; however, primarily it is the use of fossil fuels which increases atmospheric carbon dioxide (also nitrous oxide, and methane). These greenhouse gases prevent the earth from cooling, resulting in the higher temperatures and rising sea levels, which then cause ‘wild weather’ patterns, including floods, storms, and droughts. Particular vulnerability is afforded to those already health compromised (older people, pregnant women, children, wider health co-morbidities) as well as populations closer to equatorial zones, which encompasses many low-and-middle-income-countries. The paradox here, is that poorer nations by spending less on healthcare, have lower carbon emissions from health-related activity, and yet will suffer most from global warming effects, with scant resources to off-set the increasing health care needs. Global recognition has forged the Paris agreement, the United Nations sustainable developments goals, and the World Health Organisation climate change action plan. It is agreed that most healthcare impact comes from consumption of energy and resources, and the production of greenhouse gases into the environment. Many professional associations of medicine and allied health professionals are advocating for their members to lead on environmental sustainability; the Australian Podiatry Association is incorporating climate change into its strategic direction. Conclusion Podiatrists, as allied health professionals, have wide community engagement, and hence, can model positive environmental practices, which may be effective in changing wider community behaviours, as occurred last century when doctors stopped smoking. As foot health consumers, our patients are increasingly likely to expect more sustainable practices and products, including ‘green footwear’ options. Green Podiatry, as a part of sustainable healthcare, directs us to be responsible energy and product consumers, and reduce our workplace emissions.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 2727-2746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Alexander T. Archibald ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Paul Telford ◽  
...  

Abstract. A stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Met Office's Unified Model (UM) with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) scheme is used to investigate the atmospheric response to changes in (a) greenhouse gases and climate, (b) ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and (c) non-methane ozone precursor emissions. A suite of time-slice experiments show the separate, as well as pairwise, impacts of these perturbations between the years 2000 and 2100. Sensitivity to uncertainties in future greenhouse gases and aerosols is explored through the use of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The results highlight an important role for the stratosphere in determining the annual mean tropospheric ozone response, primarily through stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. Under both climate change and reductions in ODSs, increases in STE offset decreases in net chemical production and act to increase the tropospheric ozone burden. This opposes the effects of projected decreases in ozone precursors through measures to improve air quality, which act to reduce the ozone burden. The global tropospheric lifetime of ozone (τO3) does not change significantly under climate change at RCP4.5, but it decreases at RCP8.5. This opposes the increases in τO3 simulated under reductions in ODSs and ozone precursor emissions. The additivity of the changes in ozone is examined by comparing the sum of the responses in the single-forcing experiments to those from equivalent combined-forcing experiments. Whilst the ozone responses to most forcing combinations are found to be approximately additive, non-additive changes are found in both the stratosphere and troposphere when a large climate forcing (RCP8.5) is combined with the effects of ODSs.


2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas E. Lovejoy

One of the fundamental challenges of climate change is that we contribute to it increment by increment, and experience it increment by increment after a considerable time lag. As a consequence, it is very difficult to see what we are doing to ourselves, to future generations, and to the living planet as a whole. There are monumental ethical issues involved, but they are obscured by the incremental nature of the process and the long time frame before reaching the concentration of greenhouse gases and the ensuing accumulation of radiant heat—and consequent climate change—that ensues.


2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 648-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Wirth

The reconvened sixth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-6bis) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) took place in Bonn from July 16 to 27, 2001, under the presidency of Jan Pronk, Netherlands minister of housing, spatial planning, and the environment. The meeting was noteworthy as the occasion for adopting the Bonn Agreements on the Kyoto Protocol rules, a crucial juncture for entry into force of the principal international instrument for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. The rules were adopted in final form as the Marrakesh Accords at the seventh session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-7), held in Marrakesh, Morocco, from October 29 to November 9, 2001.


Author(s):  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Daniel J. Hill ◽  
Matthew J. Pound ◽  
...  

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mastawesha Misganaw Engdaw ◽  
Andrew Ballinger ◽  
Gabriele Hegerl ◽  
Andrea Steiner

<p>In this study, we aim at quantifying the contribution of different forcings to changes in temperature extremes over 1981–2020 using CMIP6 climate model simulations. We first assess the changes in extreme hot and cold temperatures defined as days below 10% and above 90% of daily minimum temperature (TN10 and TN90) and daily maximum temperature (TX10 and TX90). We compute the change in percentage of extreme days per season for October-March (ONDJFM) and April-September (AMJJAS). Spatial and temporal trends are quantified using multi-model mean of all-forcings simulations. The same indices will be computed from aerosols-, greenhouse gases- and natural-only forcing simulations. The trends estimated from all-forcings simulations are then attributed to different forcings (aerosols-, greenhouse gases-, and natural-only) by considering uncertainties not only in amplitude but also in response patterns of climate models. The new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution method by Ribes et al. (2017) is used to quantify the contribution of human-induced climate change. Preliminary results of the attribution analysis show that anthropogenic climate change has the largest contribution to the changes in temperature extremes in different regions of the world.</p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong> climate change, temperature, extreme events, attribution, CMIP6</p><p> </p><p><strong>Acknowledgement:</strong> This work was funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) under Research Grant W1256 (Doctoral Programme Climate Change: Uncertainties, Thresholds and Coping Strategies)</p>


Author(s):  
Mehmetali AK ◽  
◽  
Aslı GÜNEŞ GÖLBEY ◽  

One of the most important environmental problems in today's world is climate change caused by greenhouse gases. Due to the increase in CO2 emissions from greenhouse gases, climate change is increasing and moving towards the point of no return. In this process, many ideas have been developed to combat climate change. One of these ideas is that cities should be sustainable. In order for cities to be sustainable, activities such as expanding the use of renewable energy resources in cities, increasing green and environmentally friendly transportation, improving air quality, and minimizing carbon emissions should be carried out. In this context, open green areas have important effects in terms of improving air quality, reducing the heat island effect in cities and especially keeping carbon emissions to a minimum. Thus, the efficiency and productivity of carbon capture and storage of green areas come to the fore. There are several methods to measure the carbon capture and storage efficiency of green areas and to evaluate their efficiency. In this study, the methods used in determining open green areas in cities and evaluating biomass productivity in these areas will be examined.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Kehan Li

Climate change is of great importance in modern times and global warming is considered as a significant part of climate change. It is proved that human’s emissions such as greenhouse gases are one of the main sources of global warming (IPCC, 2018). Apart from greenhouse gases, there is another kind of matter being released in quantity via emissions from industries and transportations and playing an important role in global warming, which is aerosol. However, atmospheric aerosols have the net effect of cooling towards global warming. In this paper, climate change with respect to global warming is briefly introduced and the role of aerosols in the atmosphere is emphasized. Besides, properties of aerosols including dynamics and thermodynamics of aerosols as well as interactions with solar radiation are concluded. In the end, environmental policies and solutions are discussed. Keywords: Climate change, Global warming, Atmospheric aerosols, Particulate matter, Radiation, Environmental policy.


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