Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 283-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Benndorf ◽  
S. Federici ◽  
C. Forner ◽  
N. Pena ◽  
E. Rametsteiner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Outside The Box

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals East African food security as influenced by future climate change and land use change at local to regional scales

2011 ◽  
Vol 110 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 823-844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Moore ◽  
Gopal Alagarswamy ◽  
Bryan Pijanowski ◽  
Philip Thornton ◽  
Brent Lofgren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
East African

scholarly journals MIROC-INTEG1: A global bio-geochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Tsuguki Kinoshita ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Surface Model

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. Future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human land-use change can affect the climate system through bio-geophysical and bio-geochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG1 (MIROC INTEGrated terrestrial model version 1), an integrated model that combines the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land use models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the sub-models of MIROC-INTEG1, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify the various interactions between sub-models. MIROC-INTEG1 makes it possible to quantitatively evaluate the feedback processes or nexus between climate, water resources, crop production, land use, and ecosystem, and to assess the risks, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with future climate change and prospective mitigation and adaptation policies.

scholarly journals Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 5053-5083
Author(s):  
Jessica L. McCarty ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Ville-Veikko Paunu ◽  
Steve R. Arnold ◽  
Sabine Eckhardt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract. In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70∘ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65∘ N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60∘ N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65∘ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari ◽  
Ommolbanin Bazrafshan ◽  
Thomas Panagopoulos ◽  
Elham Rafiei Sardooi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Soil Cover ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1y−1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha−1 y−1, which will generate 5.52 t ha−1 y−1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha−1 year−1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 564-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Pompe ◽  
Jan Hanspach ◽  
Franz Badeck ◽  
Stefan Klotz ◽  
Wilfried Thuiller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Species Loss ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Spatially Varying

We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15–19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally—averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.

MAPPY : Multisectoral Analysis of climate and land use change impacts on Pollinators, Plant diversity and crops Yields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurine Antoine ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Plant Diversity ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Crop Damage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Pollinator Decline ◽  
Entire Study

<p>The impacts of climate change on natural systems and biodiversity are known and already visible in some regions. With regard to agronomic systems, the effects of climate change have also been widely studied. However, some processes are still poorly understood, such as the links between pollinators and climate change or land use change. The feedbacks between different systems under climate change and land use change are still very little explored and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is within this framework that the MAPPY project fits.</p><p>The overall objective of the MAPPY project, funded by the AXIS program of JPI-Climate, is to study quantitatively feedback processes linking pollinators, plant diversity and crop yields in the context of climate and land use changes. A set of complementary models will be assembled, iteratively, to capture the dynamics of this complex system at regional level. Dynamic vegetation models and species distribution models will be used to assess the impacts of future climate change. Then, an agent-based model will be used to derive detailed land use and land cover change scenarios for the future at the scale of studied regions. The results of this combination of models will make it possible to assess the potential impacts on pollinator communities, which will make it possible to refine crop models. Finally, the socio-economic impacts of these forecasts will be assessed.</p><p>Several case study regions are defined in Europe. The entire study will be undertaken with local stakeholders who will identify the most relevant topics to be addressed. Indeed, stakeholders are asking more and more questions about climate change impact on crop yields, fruit crop damage, pollinator decline. Therefore, they will help us select the results that will be useful to them. Finally, a web platform will be developed with online tools allowing exploration of project results. The platform will be designed by involving stakeholders from the start of the project.</p>

scholarly journals An evaluation of vegetation health and the socioeconomic dimension of the vulnerability of Jharkhand state of India in climate change scenarios and their likely impact: a geospatial approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 39-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firoz Ahmad ◽  
Md Meraj Uddin ◽  
Laxmi Goparaju
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Tribal Population ◽  
Agricultural Vulnerability

AbstractGeospatial evaluation of various datasets is extremely important because it gives a better comprehension of the past, present and future and can therefore be significantly utilized in effective decision making strategies. This study examined the relationships, using geospatial tools, between various diversified datasets such as land use/land cover (LULC), long term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) based changes, long term forest fire points, poverty percentage, tribal percentage, forest fire hotspots, climate change vulnerability, agricultural vulnerability and future (2030) climate change anomalies (RCP-6) of Jharkhand state, India, for a better understanding and knowledge of its vegetation health, LULC, poverty, tribal population and future climate change impact. The long term NDVI (1982-2006) evaluation revealed negative change trends in seven northwest districts of Jharkhand state, these were: Hazaribag, Ramgarh, Palamu, Lohardaga, Chatra, Garhwa and Latehar. The forests as well as the agriculture of these districts have lost their greenness during this period. The forest fire frequency events were found to be more pronounced in the land use/land cover of “tropical lowland forests, broadleaved, evergreen, <1000 m” category, and were roughly twice the intensity of the “tropical mixed deciduous and dry deciduous forests” category. In the nine districts of Jharkhand it was found that 40 % of the population was living below the poverty line which is around twice the national average. The highest poverty districts, in percentage, were: Garwah (53.93), Palamu (49.24), Latehar (47.99) and Chatra (46.2). The southwest and south of Jharkhand state shows a tribal population density of more than 40%. The climate change vulnerability was found to be highest in the district of Saraikela followed by Pashchim Singhbhum, whereas agricultural vulnerability was found to be highest in the district of Pashchim Singhbhum followed by Saraikela, Garhwa, Simdega, Latehar, Palamu and Lohardaga. The temperature anomalies prediction for the year 2030 shows an increasing trend in temperature with values of 0.8°C to 1°C in the state of Jharkhand. The highest increases were observed in the districts of Pashchim Singhbhum, Simdega and Saraikela. Based on these evaluations we can conclude that a few of the districts of Jharkhand, such as Pashchim Singhbhum, Garhwa, Palamu and Latehar need to be prioritized for development on an urgent basis. The outcomes of this study would certainly guide the policymakers to prepare more robust plans when keeping in mind the future climate change impacts for the prioritization of various districts of Jharkhand which suffer from extreme poverty, diminished livelihood and insignificant agricultural productivity for the betterment of the people of Jharkhand based on their adaptive capacity.

Increased uncertainty in Land-Use change impacts on temperature due to Global Warming in CMIP6-LUMIP experiments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshdeep Singh ◽  
Sanjiv Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Historical Climate ◽  
The Future

&lt;p&gt;Land-use change (LU) is a major regional climate forcing that affects carbon-water-energy fluxes and, therefore, near-surface air temperature. Although there are uncertainties in LU impacts in the historical climate, there is a growing consensus towards a cooling influence in the mid-latitudes. However, how a drier and warmer land surface condition in the future climate can change the LU impacts are not investigated well.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We use a comprehensive set of five coupled climate models from the CMIP6-LUMIP project to assess the changing influence of the LU change. We use two methodologies: (1) direct method &amp;#8211; where LU impacts are estimated by subtracting the &amp;#8216;no-LU&amp;#8217; climate experiment from the control experiment that includes LU, and (2) Kumar et al., 2013 (K13) method where LU impacts are estimated by comparing climate change impacts between LU and no-LU neighboring regions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;First, we compared the LU impacts in the historical climate and between the direct method and K13 methods using the multi-model analysis. In the North America LU change region, the direct method shows a cooling impact of (-0.14 &amp;#177; 0.13&amp;#176;C). The K13 methods show a smaller cooling impact (-0.09 &amp;#177; 0.08&amp;#176;C). In terms of energy balance, the direct method shows a reduction of net shortwave radiation (-0.82 &amp;#177; 0.91 watts/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;) the K13 method shows a cleaner result of (-1.25 &amp;#177; 0.60 watts/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;), as expected. We suspect that a more substantial influence of the LU change in the direct method is due to large-scale circulation driven response or due to the internal variability that has been canceled out in the K13 method.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Next, we extend the K13 method to assess the LU impacts in the future climate. Direct methods are not available for the future climate experiment in CMIP6-LUMIP datasets. We find that a cooling impact of LU change has become statistically insignificant in the future climate (-0.17 &amp;#177; 0.19&amp;#176;C). A similar influence is also found in the reduction of the net shortwave radiation (-1.92 &amp;#177; 3.34 watts/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;). We also found that climate change impacts on temperature are an order of magnitude greater than LU impact in the future climate. Hence, we hypothesize that higher warming has contributed to the larger uncertainty in LU impacts. We will also discuss LU impacts in Eurasia and Indian subcontinent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/fileStorageProxy.php?f=gnp.967d8b47f50063273001161/sdaolpUECMynit/12UGE&amp;app=m&amp;a=0&amp;c=6fbaa64b9acfb208f665dca0184a6955&amp;ct=x&amp;pn=gnp.elif&amp;d=1&quot; alt=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Reference&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Kumar, S., Dirmeyer, P. A., Merwade, V., DelSole, T., Adams, J. M., &amp; Niyogi, D. (2013). Land use/cover change impacts in CMIP5 climate simulations: A new methodology and 21st century challenges.&amp;#160;Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,&amp;#160;118(12), 6337-6353.&lt;/p&gt;

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