Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Abstract. We apply different aerosol and aerosol precursor emission scenarios reflecting possible future control strategies for air pollution in the ECHAM5-HAM model, and simulate the resulting effect on the Earth's radiation budget. We use two opposing future mitigation strategies for the year 2030: one in which emission reduction legislation decided in countries throughout the world are effectively implemented (current legislation; CLE 2030) and one in which all technical options for emission reductions are being implemented independent of their cost (maximum feasible reduction; MFR 2030). We consider the direct, semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols. The total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation between 2000 and pre-industrial times amounts to −2.00 W/m2. In the future this negative global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing will only slightly change (+0.02 W/m2) under the "current legislation" scenario. Regionally, the effects are much larger: e.g. over Eastern Europe radiative forcing would increase by +1.50 W/m2 because of successful aerosol reduction policies, whereas over South Asia it would decrease by −1.10 W/m2 because of further growth of emissions. A "maximum feasible reduction" of aerosols and their precursors would lead to an increase of the global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing by +1.13 W/m2. Hence, in the latter case, the present day negative anthropogenic aerosol forcing could be more than halved by 2030 because of aerosol reduction policies and climate change thereafter will be to a larger extent be controlled by greenhouse gas emissions. We combined these two opposing future mitigation strategies for a number of experiments focusing on different sectors and regions. In addition, we performed sensitivity studies to estimate the importance of future changes in oxidant concentrations and the importance of the aerosol microphysical coupling within the range of expected future changes. For changes in oxidant concentrations caused by future air pollution mitigation, we do not find a significant effect for the global annual mean radiative aerosol forcing. In the extreme case of only abating SO2 or carbonaceous emissions to a maximum feasible extent, we find deviations from additivity for the radiative forcing over anthropogenic source regions up to 10% compared to an experiment abating both at the same time.

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Erratum to “Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: Progress, uncertainties and research needs” [Environment International 75 (2015): 21–32]

Environment International ◽

10.1016/j.envint.2014.12.005 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 76 ◽

pp. 106-109

Author(s):

Lina Madaniyazi ◽

Yuming Guo ◽

Weiwei Yu ◽

Shilu Tong

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Research Needs ◽

Changing Climate ◽

Future Air Pollution ◽

Related Mortality

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Source influence on emission pathways and ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution over India (2015–2050)

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-8017-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (11) ◽

pp. 8017-8039 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

Chandra Venkataraman ◽

Michael Brauer ◽

Kushal Tibrewal ◽

Pankaj Sadavarte ◽

Qiao Ma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Particulate Matter ◽

Air Quality ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Biomass Combustion ◽

Anthropogenic Source ◽

Population Exposure ◽

Future Economic Development ◽

Future Air Pollution

Abstract. India is currently experiencing degraded air quality, and future economic development will lead to challenges for air quality management. Scenarios of sectoral emissions of fine particulate matter and its precursors were developed and evaluated for 2015–2050, under specific pathways of diffusion of cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies. The impacts of individual source sectors on PM2.5 concentrations were assessed through systematic simulations of spatially and temporally resolved particulate matter concentrations, using the GEOS-Chem model, followed by population-weighted aggregation to national and state levels. We find that PM2.5 pollution is a pan-India problem, with a regional character, and is not limited to urban areas or megacities. Under present-day emissions, levels in most states exceeded the national PM2.5 annual standard (40 µg m−3). Sources related to human activities were responsible for the largest proportion of the present-day population exposure to PM2.5 in India. About 60 % of India's mean population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations come from anthropogenic source sectors, while the remainder are from other sources, windblown dust and extra-regional sources. Leading contributors are residential biomass combustion, power plant and industrial coal combustion and anthropogenic dust (including coal fly ash, fugitive road dust and waste burning). Transportation, brick production and distributed diesel were other contributors to PM2.5. Future evolution of emissions under regulations set at current levels and promulgated levels caused further deterioration of air quality in 2030 and 2050. Under an ambitious prospective policy scenario, promoting very large shifts away from traditional biomass technologies and coal-based electricity generation, significant reductions in PM2.5 levels are achievable in 2030 and 2050. Effective mitigation of future air pollution in India requires adoption of aggressive prospective regulation, currently not formulated, for a three-pronged switch away from (i) biomass-fuelled traditional technologies, (ii) industrial coal-burning and (iii) open burning of agricultural residue. Future air pollution is dominated by industrial process emissions, reflecting larger expansion in industrial, rather than residential energy demand. However, even under the most active reductions envisioned, the 2050 mean exposure, excluding any impact from windblown mineral dust, is estimated to be nearly 3 times higher than the WHO Air Quality Guideline.

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The role of aerosol in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in winter and air-quality feedbacks

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-14-22477-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (16) ◽

pp. 22477-22506 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

F. S. R. Pausata ◽

M. Gaetani ◽

G. Messori ◽

S. Kloster ◽

F. J. Dentener

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Radiation Budget ◽

Atlantic Sector ◽

Pollution Mitigation ◽

Near Future ◽

Future Air Pollution

Abstract. Numerical model scenarios of future climate depict a global increase in temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, driven by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Aerosol concentrations also play an important role in altering Earth's radiation budget and consequently surface temperature. Here, we use the general circulation aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM, coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, to investigate the impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies in Europe on winter atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. We analyze the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe reduction of aerosols in the near future (2030), in combination with increasing GHG concentrations. Our results show a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mean state in the near future, together with a significant eastward shift of the southern centre of action of the sea level pressure (SLP). Moreover, we show a significantly increased blocking frequency over the western Mediterranean. By separating the aerosol and GHG impacts, our study suggests that the aerosol abatement in the near future may be the primary driver of such circulation changes. All these concomitant modifications of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector lead to more stagnant weather conditions that favor air pollutant accumulation in the Mediterranean, especially in the western sector. These changes in atmospheric circulation should be included in future air pollution mitigation assessments. Our results suggest that an evaluation of NAO changes in individual climate model simulations will allow an objective assessment of the role of changes in wintertime circulation on future air quality.

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COVID-19 lockdown induced air pollution reduction over India: A lesson for future air pollution mitigation strategies

Journal of Earth System Science ◽

10.1007/s12040-021-01722-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 130 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Vineet Pratap ◽

Shani Tiwari ◽

Akhilesh Kumar ◽

Abhay Kumar Singh

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Pollution Reduction ◽

Pollution Mitigation ◽

Future Air Pollution

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Nanomaterials and Pollution Control

10.4018/978-1-7998-8251-0.ch012 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 309-323

Author(s):

Latefa Almansoori ◽

Asiya Nazir

Keyword(s):

Molecular Structure ◽

Water Pollution ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Pollution Control ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Environmental Benefits ◽

Volatile Organic ◽

Treatment Plans ◽

Future Air Pollution

With nanoscience, new environmental benefits have emerged to aid pollution control. Nanotechnology is becoming beneficial for air and water pollution control and eradication in the future. Air pollution can be controlled with nano-adsorptive materials, nanocatalysis, and nano filters. For water pollution, nanofiltration and nano sorbents techniques are used. Nanotechnology establishes a framework to manipulate the molecular structure of objects depending on the characteristic to generate new materials. Environmental pollution is being controlled more efficiently and strategically through the application of nanotechnology. The technology deals with numerous contaminants like nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, carbon dioxide, among other harmful gases. The research narrows down to the argument that nanotechnology has a positive impact on environmental protection and provides an effective way to eliminate pollution by developing reliable treatment plans. In this chapter, the authors have briefly discussed the different nontechniques applied to control the pollution.

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