Flash flood prediction using an uncalibrated hydrological model and radar rainfall data in a Mediterranean watershed under changing hydrological conditions

2010 ◽  
Vol 394 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 245-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahar Rozalis ◽  
Efrat Morin ◽  
Yoav Yair ◽  
Colin Price
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Hydrological Conditions

Flash Flood Prediction on Shoal Creek: or Why Radar Rainfall?

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 (6) ◽  
pp. 193-200
Author(s):  
Baxter Vieux ◽  
Jean Vieux ◽  
Susan Janek ◽  
Janna Renfro
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Flood Prediction

scholarly journals Study on Flood Prediction System Based on Radar Rainfall Data

2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (11) ◽  
pp. 1153-1162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Won-Il Kim ◽  
Kyoung-Doo Oh ◽  
Won-Sik Ahn ◽  
Byong-Ho Jun
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Flood Prediction

scholarly journals On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxime Jay-Allemand ◽  
Pierre Javelle ◽  
Igor Gejadze ◽  
Patrick Arnaud ◽  
Pierre-Olivier Malaterre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Additional Constraints

Abstract. Flash flood alerts in metropolitan France are provided by SCHAPI (Service Central Hydrométéorologique et d’Appui à la Prévision des Inondations) through the Vigicrues Flash service, which is designed to work in ungauged catchments. The AIGA method implemented in Vigicrues Flash is designed for flood forecasting on small- and medium-scale watersheds. It is based on a distributed hydrological model accounting for spatial variability of the rainfall and the catchment properties, based on the radar rainfall observation inputs. Calibration of distributed parameters describing these properties with high resolution is difficult, both technically (in terms of the estimation method), and because of the identifiability issues. Indeed, the number of parameters to be calibrated is much greater than the number of spatial locations where the discharge observations are usually available. However, the flood propagation is a dynamic process, so observations have also a temporal dimension. This must be larger enough to comprise a representative set of events. In order to fully benefit from using the AIGA method, we consider its hydrological model (GRD) in combination with the variational estimation (data assimilation) method. In this method, the optimal set of parameters is found by minimizing the objective function which includes the misfit between the observed and predicted values and some additional constraints. The minimization process requires the gradient of the cost function with respect to all control parameters, which is efficiently computed using the adjoint model. The variational estimation method is scalable, fast converging, and offers a convenient framework for introducing additional constraints relevant to hydrology. It can be used both for calibrating the parameters and estimating the initial state of the hydrological system for short range forecasting (in a manner used in weather forecasting). The study area is the Gardon d’Anduze watershed where four gauging stations are available. In numerical experiments, the benefits of using the distributed against the uniform calibration are analysed in terms of the model predictive performance. Distributed calibration shows encouraging results with better model prediction at gauged and ungauged locations.

Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

2009 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 1066-1076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efrat Morin ◽  
Yael Jacoby ◽  
Shilo Navon ◽  
Erez Bet-Halachmi
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Flood Prediction

scholarly journals Prediction of Flash Flood using Rainfall by MLP Classifier

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 425-429
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Flood Prediction

Flood are one of the unfavorable natural disasters. A flood can result in a huge loss of human lives and properties. It can also affect agricultural lands and destroy cultivated crops and trees. The flood can occur as a result of surface-runoff formed from melting snow, long-drawn-out rains, and derisory drainage of rainwater or collapse of dams. Today people have destroyed the rivers and lakes and have turned the natural water storage pools to buildings and construction lands. Flash floods can develop quickly within a few hours when compared with a regular flood. Research in prediction of flood has improved to reduce the loss of human life, property damages, and various problems related to the flood. Machine learning methods are widely used in building an efficient prediction model for weather forecasting. This advancement of the prediction system provides cost-effective solutions and better performance. In this paper, a prediction model is constructed using rainfall data to predict the occurrence of floods due to rainfall. The model predicts whether “flood may happen or not” based on the rainfall range for particular locations. Indian district rainfall data is used to build the prediction model. The dataset is trained with various algorithms like Linear Regression, K- Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, and Multilayer Perceptron. Among this, MLP algorithm performed efficiently with the highest accuracy of 97.40%. The MLP flash flood prediction model can be useful for the climate scientist to predict the flood during a heavy downpour with the highest accuracy.

scholarly journals Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7995-8043 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Atencia ◽  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
L. Garrote ◽  
L. Mediero
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Probability Matching ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Model ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Models

Abstract. The performance of distributed hydrological models depends on the resolution, both spatial and temporal, of the rainfall surface data introduced. The estimation of quantitative precipitation from meteorological radar or satellite can improve hydrological model results, thanks to an indirect estimation at higher spatial and temporal resolution. In this work, composed radar data from a network of three C-band radars, with 6-minutal temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution, provided by the Catalan Meteorological Service, is used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A Window Probability Matching Method (gage-adjustment method) is applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation in both convective and stratiform Z/R relations used over Catalonia. Once the rainfall field has been adequately obtained, an advection correction, based on cross-correlation between two consecutive images, was introduced to get several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. Each different resolution is treated as an independent event, resulting in a probable range of input rainfall data. This ensemble of rainfall data is used, together with other sources of uncertainty, such as the initial basin state or the accuracy of discharge measurements, to calibrate the RIBS model using probabilistic methodology. A sensitivity analysis of time resolutions was implemented by comparing the various results with real values from stream-flow measurement stations.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Uncertainty of Flash Flood Prediction Using the RRI Model in Mountainous Rivers

10.29007/n72w ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosuke Nakamura ◽  
Koji Ikeuchi ◽  
Shiori Abe ◽  
Toshio Koike ◽  
Shinji Egashira
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Level 2

In recent years, flood damage caused by flash floods in mountainous rivers has been frequently reported in Japan. In order to ensure a sufficient lead time for safe evacuation, it is necessary to predict river water levels in real time utilizing a hydrological model. In this study, we conducted flood prediction using the RRI model and rainfall forecasted for the next 6 hours in the Kagetsu River basin (136.1 km2) in July 2017, evaluated the uncertainty regarding the prediction, and illustrated the results using a box-plot. The evaluation found that the mean error of the forecasted water level was approximately - 0.3 m in the prediction for the initial 3 hours and -0.97 m at the 6th hour. Also, the study investigated the possibility of correcting water levels forecasted by clarifying an uncertainty distribution. As a result, the water level forecasted was found to be underestimated because it was predicted to rise as high as Warning Level 2, while the water level forecasted with bias correction was predicted to reach Warning Level 4. Moreover, the lead time was estimated to prolong by 2 hours. Overall, the study suggested that flood forecasting can be improved by considering the uncertainty involved in prediction.

scholarly journals Influence of Rainfall Data with Different Spatial Resolutions on Flood Forecasting Reliability

10.29007/74bp ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mamoru Miyamoto ◽  
Kazuhiro Matsumoto
Keyword(s):  
River Discharge ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Error Assessment ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Convergence Results ◽  
Gauge Data

Recent advancements in precipitation observation technology make it possible to precisely describe the intensity and temporal-spatial distribution of heavy rainfall, which can cause severe floods and inundations. Such technologies have also increased the accuracy of flood forecasting. However, error factors in flood forecasting remain to be solved, originating in not only input data but also model structure and calibration. Thus, this study focused on convergence results of errors in parameter optimization of the PWRI Distributed Hydrological Model and the reproducibility of river discharge. The reliability of ground-gauge and C-band-radar rainfall is compared in terms of flood forecasting under the condition of the minimum error due to calibration. Although the convergence results showed that C-band radar rainfall was superior to ground gauge rainfall, both were equally effective in reproducing river discharge with a high NSE of 0.9 at a station with error assessment. On the other hand, the reproducibility of river discharge with C-band radar data was highly superior to that with ground gauge data at a station without error assessment. This indicates that grid-based high resolution rainfall data is necessary for basin-wide flood forecasting.

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