scholarly journals Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 517 ◽  
pp. 1019-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Forsythe ◽  
H.J. Fowler ◽  
S. Blenkinsop ◽  
A. Burton ◽  
C.G. Kilsby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Arid Climate ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Semi Arid

scholarly journals Addressing Climate Change Risks Influencing Cryosphere-Fed Kuhl Irrigation System in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-203
Author(s):  
Arshad Ashraf ◽  
Ghani Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on summer flood frequencies in two mountainous catchments in China and Switzerland

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Ragettli ◽  
X. Tong ◽  
G. Zhang ◽  
H. Wang ◽  
P. Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Mountainous Catchments ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Summer Flood

Abstract Flood events are difficult to characterize if available observation records are shorter than the recurrence intervals, and the non-stationarity of the climate adds additional uncertainty. In this study, we use a hydrological model coupled with a stochastic weather generator to simulate the summer flood regime in two mountainous catchments located in China and Switzerland. The models are set up with hourly data from only 10–20 years of observations but are successfully validated against 30–40-year long records of flood frequencies and magnitudes. To assess the climate change impacts on flood frequencies, we re-calibrate the weather generator with the climate statistics for 2021–2050 obtained from ensembles of bias-corrected regional climate models. Across all assessed return periods (10–100 years) and two emission scenarios, nearly all model chains indicate an intensification of flood extremes. According to the ensemble averages, the potential flood magnitudes increase by more than 30% in both catchments. The unambiguousness of the results is remarkable and can be explained by three factors rarely combined in previous studies: reduced statistical uncertainty due to a stochastic modelling approach, hourly time steps and the focus on headwater catchments where local topography and convective storms are causing runoff extremes within a confined area.

Hydrograph apportionment of the Chandra River draining from a semi-arid region of the Upper Indus Basin, western Himalaya

2021 ◽  
Vol 780 ◽  
pp. 146500
Author(s):  
Ajit T. Singh ◽  
C.M. Laluraj ◽  
Parmanand Sharma ◽  
B.L. Redkar ◽  
Lavkush Kumar Patel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arid Region ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Semi Arid

scholarly journals As Experiências da Coalizão Adapta Sertão na Disseminação de Tecnologias e Estratégias de Adaptação à Mudança Climática para o Agricultor Familiar do Semiárido Brasileiro (The experience of the Adapta Sertão Coalition in Disseminating Climate Change...)

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 1336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Cesano ◽  
Emilio Lèbre La Rovere ◽  
Martin Obermaier ◽  
Thais Corral ◽  
Laise Santos da Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Farmers ◽  
Family Farming ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Access To Water ◽  
Semi Arid

Este artigo descreve a experiência da coalizão Adapta Sertão na experimentação e disseminação de sistemas produtivos que possam tornar o agricultor familiar do Semiárido mais resiliente aos impactos da variação climática atual e da mudança do clima no futuro. Durante as experimentações, a coalizão teve que enfrentar várias barreiras ligadas à falta de integração entre políticas públicas existentes e projetos pilotos em comunidades locais. Hoje, a adaptação à mudança do clima não está sendo considerada na implementação de obras hídricas de pequeno e médio porte, que são de grande importância porque, geralmente, conseguem beneficiar as faixas de população mais pobres e mais suscetíveis aos impactos climáticos. As experiências mostram que é preciso desenvolver, com urgência, políticas públicas inovadoras que consigam integrar o acesso à água com a disseminação de tecnologias de adaptação e de sistemas produtivos mais resilientes à seca.  Palavras - chave: medidas de adaptação, agricultura familiar, semiárido, tecnologia.  The experience of the Adapta Sertão Coalition in Disseminating Climate Change Adaptation Technologies and Strategies for Family Farmers in Semi Arid Brazil  ABSTRACTThis paper describes the experience of the Adapta Sertão coalition in testing and experimenting production systems that have the potential to make small farmers of semi-arid Brazil more resilient to current and future climate change impacts. During the different testing, the coalition had to overcome several barriers linked to a lack of integration between current public policies. For example, today climate change is not considered in the design and implementation of small and medium hydraulic infrastructures. This limits the benefits to the target groups (small farmers) that are more likely to be affected by climate change. The experiences show that it is urgent and necessary to develop public policies to better integrate access to water, dissemination of climate resilient technologies and implementation of production systems more adequate to the semi arid conditions.  Keywords: adaptation measures, family farming, semi-arid, technology.

Assessing climate change impacts on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid environments using CSM-CERES-Millet model

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 6745-6757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asmat Ullah ◽  
Ishfaq Ahmad ◽  
Ashfaq Ahmad ◽  
Tasneem Khaliq ◽  
Umer Saeed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pearl Millet ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Arid Environments ◽  
Semi Arid
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